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Futurology

Futurology. A New Field of Research. It is better to have a bad map than to have no map at all .

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Futurology

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  1. Futurology A New Field of Research

  2. It is bettertohave a badmapthantohave no map at all. • Thefuturecontains an element of uncertainty, but wetrytoprepareforthefutureandtodealwithitsuncertainties. Wealsotrytocontrolthefuture, not onlyto “prepare” for it byadaptingtowhatwethink is coming, but tomakethingshappenthatwewanttohappen. • Withoutforecasting, there is no freedom of decision. Humanshavetheabilitytoforeseealternativefuturesbefore it is toolatetocontrolthem. Thustheyhavetheabilitytoshapetheirfuture.

  3. History • Thinkingaboutthefuture is a universalphenomenonthat can be tracedbacktothedawn of humanprehistory. • Divination: discoveringthefuturebyeliciting a divineresponse (thewill of thegods). • Widerange of techniques: Examination of animalorgans, observingthepatterns a fire makes as it burns, dreaminterpretation, etc. • Witches, sorcerers, shamanswereconsultedtodiscoverandcontrolthefuture.

  4. The Modern Approach • The modern approachtothestudy of thefuturealsotriestodiscoverandcontrolthefuture, but unlikedivination, it is not based on beliefs in thesupernatural, magic, mystification of methods, superstition, orthesecretpowers of particularindividualsorgroups. • Futuresstudies is part of modern humanism, bothphilosophicalandscientific. It is secular. Futuristsaimtodemistifythefuture, tomaketheirmethodsexplicit, to be systematicandrational, tobasetheirresults on theempiricalobservation of realityandopendiscussion, as well as creativityandintuition.

  5. RecentOrigins of FuturesStudies • Futuristicnovels of Jules Verne, 1860s and 1870s. • H.G. Wells’sarticle “Anticipations of theReaction of MechanicalandScientificProgressuponHuman Life andThought” 1901. • Sociologist William F. Ogburn’swork on SocialTrends in the 1930s. • NathanIsraeli’swork on thesocialpsychology of thefuture (1930s). • 1960s: Futurismbecame a socialmovement. • Bertrand de Jouvenel’sThe Art of Conjecture (1964). • RAND (1945): A think tank forlong-rangeforecastingandfuturesthinking. Also a schoolforfuturists. • HermanKahn’sOn ThermonuclearWar (1960). • AlvinToffler,FutureShock(1970). • Ted J. GordonandOlafHelmer’swork on FutureScientificandTechnologicalBreakthroughs (RAND) 1960s. • Harold D. Lasswell’s idea of thecominggarrisonstate.

  6. FuturesStudiesToday • Today, futuresstudies has most of thecharacteristics of a separatefield of inquiry. It has full-time professionals,networks of communicationandformalprofessionalassociations, universityfuturescoursesandeducationalprograms, conferencesandmeetings, hundreds of publicationsannually, sharedpurposes, a set of identifiablefuturistmethods, underlyingassumptions, andsharedexemplarsthatstandwithin a growing body of knowledge.

  7. ThePurposes of Futurists • Thepurposes of futuresstudiesaretodiscoverorinvent, examineandevaluate, andproposepossible, probableandpreferablefutures. • Futuristswishtoknow: • What can orcould be (thepossible) • What is likelyto be (theprobable) • Whatoughtto be (thepreferable) • Futuristsareusuallyunhappywiththepresentstate of theworldandwanttomaketheworld a betterplace. Theytrytocreatetheintellectualtoolsandknowledgethatwillallowpeopletotakeactionstoachievetheirdesirablegoals.

  8. Howto be a Futurist • Alwaysthinkprospectively – considerthefutureconsequences of presentactionsand form an image of thefuture. • Have a workingknowledge of pastandpresentdevelopments. • Watchtheemergingandexistingtrends. Alwaysscanforthefirstsigns of a future trend (such as technologicalinnovations, changes in lifestyles, demographicchanges) • Use a set of goalsandvaluestodeterminewhethertheconstructedfuture is desirable. • Inventorselectpossiblecourses of actionaimed at creatingthemostdesirablefuture.

  9. Methods of FuturesStudies Environmentalscanning, Delphimethod, futureswheel, futurespolygon, trend impactanalysis, cross-impactanalysis, systemsperspectives, decisionmodeling, statisticalmodeling, scenarioanalysis, simulationandgames, causallayeredanalysis.

  10. ScenarioAnalysis TheMethodandSomeExamples

  11. ScenarioAnalysis • Scenariosarealternativefutures. Theyareneitherpredictionsnorforecasts. Rather, eachscenario is onealternativeimage of howthefuturemightunfold. • Othermethodsyieldoneimage of thefuturewhilescenarioanalysisprovides a widerange of possiblefutures.

  12. ScenarioAnalysis • Insocialsystemsinformation on variables is incompletesothey can only be appreciatedbyintuitionandarebestcommunicatedbyimagesandstories. • Quantificationbrings a false sense of precisionintosocialphenomena. As manyqualitativefactorscannot be quantified, scenarioanalysismakeslittleuse of mathematics.

  13. ScenarioAnalysis • Everyscenarioanalysisexercisebeginswith an analysis of thecurrentsituation (theempiricalpresent). Theempiricalpresentprovidesthefoundationuponwhichthepotentialfuturesareconstructed, therebygroundingtheanalysis in reality. • However, linearextrapolations of currenttrendsarepronetoerrorbecausecatalyticeventsmaythrowthesetrendsdrasticallyoffcourse.

  14. ScenarioAnalysis • Thepoint of scenarioanalysis is not tofind a way of justifyingexistingbeliefsaboutthefuture. Itshouldchallengethosebeliefs, revealpreviouslyignoredpossibilities. • Scenarioexercisesenhanceourlearningandunderstanding of socialphenomena. Theyilluminatetheinterrelatedness of differentrealms of life andtheunderlyingcauses of events.

  15. ScenarioAnalysis • There is no “rightscenario” but plausiblefuturesthatcouldunfold. Therightanswercannot be foundwithmathematicalcalculations. • Toomanyscenarioswould be toosimilartoeachother: merevariations of thesametheme. • 4-5 scenariosareenough, andtheirdifferencesmustreally be significant.

  16. ScenarioAnalysis • Avoidmaking “mostlikely” plots. Welearnmorefromsurprisingplots. • Do not assignprobabilitiestoscenarios. Do not categorizethem as eitherthemostortheleastlikely. • Keepyourmindopentoallpossibilities, not onlythedesirableorfrighteningones. Purewhiteorpureblackimages of thefutureare not realistic, usuallytherearevariousshades of grey.

  17. ScenarioAnalysis • Avoidbuilding 3 scenarios: thebest, theworstandthemiddle. Usuallythemiddle of theroad is selected as themostlikely, which is a mistake. • Bestandworstcasescenariosareusually ideal extremesthatare not plausible.

  18. HowtoBuildScenarios: TheSteps • Identifytheissue. • Identifythedrivers of change in 5 areas (STEEP) thatmayshapethefuture. • Select 2 importantanduncertaindriversandbuild a matrix. Build 4 scenariosfromitsquadrants. • Throw in a wildcard: Build a surprisescenario. • Devise a strategyforthefuture: Whatmust be done topreventthenegativeoutcomeortoreachthepositiveoutcome?

  19. 1. IdentifytheIssue Formulate a questionaboutthefuture(20 years): *Willthere be lessormorewars in thefuture? *Willtheworldpopulationdecreaseorincrease in thefuture? *Willwomen’sstatusimprove in thefuture? *Willthere be greaterdemocracyorauthoritarianism in thefuture? *Willthegapbetweenrichandpoorcountriesincrease in thefuture?

  20. 2.IdentifytheDrivers of Changethat May InfluencetheIssue • Identifytheprimarydrivingforces at work in thepresent in 5 areas(STEEP): • Social • Technological • Economic • Environmental • Political

  21. Examples of Drivers • Social: Culture, education, family, marriageanddivorcerates, demographiccomposition, immigration. • Technological: ICT, electronics, genetics, biotechnology, nanotechnology, weapons, robotics. • Economic: Income, growth, trade, investment, polarization, impoverishment, globalization. • Environmental: Pollution, global warming, foodshortages, depletion of resources, deforestation. • Political: Types of regime, elections, leaders, instability, failedstates, NGOs, .

  22. 3. Select 2 importantanduncertaindrivers • Amongthedrivers, somearepredeterminedandinevitable, leavethemout. e.g. Number of elderlypeople 20 yearslater. • Selectthedriversthatareuncertainandbeyondourcontrol. • Then, fromamongtheuncertainones, selectthemostimportant 2 drivers: Which 2 forcesaremostlikelyto define thefuture of theissue?

  23. Build a MatrixwiththeTwoDrivers

  24. TheMatrix • Thematrixsimplifiesalluncertaintiesinto 2 axes, giving us fourquadrants. Eachquadrant is a plausiblefuture. High I Low -----------------I----------------High I Low

  25. BuildtheScenarios • Usingpresent tense, describe in headlineswhathappens in eachquadrant of thematrix. Fleshoutthescenariosfrom “High x, low y” etc., intofullstorieswith a beginning, a middle, and an end. • Whenfleshingoutthescenarios, usesystemsthinking: Describethewayparts of thesysteminteract. Whatliesunderevents:Values, interests, structures?

  26. BuildtheScenarios • Don’tmake a staticdescription of thefuture. Describehowthingsgotfromthepresenttothatscenario. Whateventsmight be necessarytomaketheendpoint of thescenariopossible? • Inthescenarios, usethedriverspreviouslyeliminatedfromthematrix(STEEP). Trytoaddforcesfromeachareaintoyourstory. • Addcharactersandpersonalities, such as charismaticleaders, interestgroups, NGOs, MNCs. Considertheirmotivationsandactions.

  27. BuildtheScenarios • Towritegoodscenarios, watchcurrenttrends. Scanyourenvironmentforsigns of newtrendsthatmightgrow in thefuture. • Onlydescribingthechanges is not enough. Alsomentiontheresponsetothechange (reaction, protest, resistance, revolution, etc.) • Inventcatchynamesforthescenarios. Theirnamesshould be strikingtoquicklyconveythechanges :e.g. “Hell” , “Backtothe Stone Age”, “Robot Revolution”, “SpaceColonies.”

  28. PlotLinesforScenarios • Crisisandresponse (environmental, energy) • Winnersandlosers (AsiaandEurope) • Goodnews/badnews (includeboth) • Evolutionarychange (Technologicaldevelopmentsaccumulateandspurmorechange) • Riseanddecline of powers (Chinaand USA) • Revolutionarychange: Abruptchange (a breakthroughinvention)

  29. PlotLinesforScenarios • Tectonicchange: Structuralalteration (breakingup of a state, newconstitution) • Cycles: Economicboomandrecession. • Infinitepossibility: Continuedeconomicgrowth. • TheLoneRanger: Oneactoragainsttheestablishment • Generations: New groupswithdifferentvaluesandexpectations • Perpetualtransition: Continuouschange. Ever-evolvingsystem.

  30. 4. Throw in A WildCard: Build a SurpriseScenario • Inadditionto a matrix of fourlogicallycontrastedscenarios, a fifth “wildcard” scenario is createdwith a dramaticsurprisethatdoesn’t fit intothematrix. • Wildcardsaresurpriseeventsthatareirrelevanttothedriversandscenarios. They can completelychangetheoutcome of theissue. • Surpriseeventsmayhappenout of theblue, unrelatedtootherdevelopments.

  31. Examples of WildCards • Naturaldisasters: earthquake, flood, hurricane. • Assassinations of importantfiguresandleaders. • Unintendedconsequences of technologies: Robotstakeover. • Disease: BlackDeath in Europe. • Political: Hitler’srise, Russianrevolution of 1917, Sovietcollapse 1991.

  32. Examples of WildCards • Techno-scientificdiscoveriesandinventions: A newsource of energy (coldfusion, hydrogen). • Cometcollisionwithearth • Suddenclimatechange: IceAge. • Faster global warming: Cropfailure, coastalflooding. • Economicdepression: Global crisis • Terroristsacquirenuclearweapons.

  33. 5. Devise a StrategyfortheFuture • Whatmust be done toavoid an undesirablefuture? Who can workforthisend: individuals, NGOs, IGOs, orgovernments? • What can be done toshape a desiredfuture? • Thispart of theanalysis is thepolicypart. It is a valuablecontribution of futuresstudiesto global well-being in terms of foresightandconcretesuggestions.

  34. Example of ScenarioAnalysis:ProspectsforPeace in 2030 WILL THERE BE MORE OR LESS WARS BY 2030? Drivers: Armstrade Inequality of wealthbetweenstates Resourcescarcities Effrective UN Peacekeeping Proliferation of WMDs Levels of ethnictension/conflict Populationgrowth Immigrationfrom South to North Number of alliances/blocs

  35. SelectTwoDrivers • Armstrade: Thisterm is usedtodenotethe global volume of armssales. It is a significantdriverbecausearmsracesnever stop andtheyescalatethelevel of hostilityandtensiontoactualwar-fighting at somepoint. • Resourcescarcities: Thisreferstodwindlingamounts of resourcessuch as oil, water, minerals, forests,etc. Throughouthistoryhumanshavefoughtoverscarceresourcesandthismay be a causeforwar in thenearfuture as well.

  36. Build a matrix

  37. Scenario 1: WORLD PEACE(Lowarmstrade, lowresourcescarcity) • Aftersufferingnuclearterroristattacks in 2020s, Western powersdecidetorestrictthe transfer of armstechnologyandarmstrade. Armscontrolagreementscurb not onlyarmstrade but alsothespending on armsdevelopmentandresearch. Financialresourcesarechanneledintoprojectsforenvironmentalprotectionandresourceconservation. New technologiesareinventedtoovercomeresourcescarcitiessuch as food, waterandenergy. Geneticmodificationimprovesagriculturalefficiency. New waterpurificationtechniquesincreasetheamount of wateravailablefromoceans. Solar energy is nowusedwidelyandfreelyaroundtheworld. An abundance of resourcesenables humman communitiestolive in peace.

  38. Scenario 2: DETERRENCE AND STABILITY(Higharmstrade, lowresourcescarcity) • Stateshaveaccumulatedstockpiles of conventionalandnucleararms but theseareonlyusedfor “coldwar” purposesratherthan a directmilitaryconfrontation. Statesmakeuse of theirmilitarypowertopreservethestatusquoandtodeteranypotentialchallengers. States do not haveanycompellingmotivestofightwarssuch as competingfordwindlingresources. New technologiessatisfytheirneedsfor a largevariety of resources.

  39. Scenario 3: WORLD WAR III(Higharmstrade, highresourcescarcity) • China’seconomicgrowthenables it tospendmore on armsandalsotoarmitsallies, RussiaandIndia. Around 2025, a largecoalition of forcesemergesaroundChinatochallengethe US leadership, includingthe anti-Western Moslemstates. Growingpopulations, especiallyChina’s 1.5 billionpeople, andIndia’s 1.8 billionpeoplehavegrowingdemandsforenergysources. In 2030, thegreatpowers of theworldenter a total warovertheincreasinglyscarceenergysources in theMiddle East, CentralAsiaandAfrica. Thewarendswiththenucleardestructionanddefeat of the USA and EU.

  40. Scenario 4: CHRONIC CHAOS(Lowarmstrade, highresourcescarcity) • During 2010s and 2020s environmentaldeteriorationcontinues at a fastpaceandresourcesdiminishparalleltothehighrates of productionandconsumption. Globalization of liberal capitalismsharpenstheinequalitiesbetweentherichandthepooreverywhere. Internationalterrorismstrikesfrequently at thecities of developedcountries. There is pervasiveunrest, civilwars, and a highdegree of violentcrime in theunderdevelopedcountries. Theangerandfrustration of deprivedmasses is revealedbychronicconventionalwarfare in AfricaandAsia. Theinstability of theseregionsprecludesmajorarmstransfers but neverthelesspeopleuselow profile, conventionalfightingmethods.

  41. TheWildCardScenario: Global NuclearDeterrence • A newtechnologicalbreakthrough in armsenablesallactors, stateandnonstate, tohaveeasyaccesstonuclearweapons of massdestruction. Thisequilibrium in nuclearpowerstarts a period of stability, that is, a coldwar in which no onedaresto start a warforfear of retaliation. Untilthebalance is disruptedby a furtherinnovation…

  42. Conclusion: StrategySuggestions • Thereshould be an institutiontocontrolarmstrade in theworld. Limitsandquotasshould be placed on armsacquisitionsbystates. Illegalarmssalesortraffickingshould be preventedbystrictpolicecontrol. • Sustainabledevelopmentpoliciesshould be adoptedbygovernmentstopreventresourcescarcities.

  43. Exercise • Democratization of theworld • (Drivers of change: Inequality, economicdevelopment, education, globalization, foreignintervention, rise of NGOs) • Wildcards: revolution, coups, civilwars.

  44. Exercises Developscenariosaroundthefollowingissues: • Thegapbetweenrichandpoorpeople • Drivers of change: Socialsecurityprograms (welfare), foreignaid, education, jobcreation, populationcontrol, land reform, tax reform, strength of tradeunions. • Wildcard: Diseasekillsmillions, poverty is eradicated.

  45. Exercise • Women’sstatus • Drivers: education, women’semployment, legislativereforms, familyplanning, number of women in government, number of women’srightsorganizations, creditsandloanstowomen, internationalagreementsprotectingwomen. • Wildcard: Fundamentalisttakeover.

  46. Exercise • Future of theenvironment • Drivers: Consumption of resources, industrialization, pollution, number of internationalagreementsforenvironmentalprotection, activities of NGOs, populationgrowth. • Wildcard: Nanotechnology can produceunlimitedamounts of resourcesandpreventspollution.

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