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Statistical Models Based on the Gutenberg-Richter a and b values for Estimating Probabilities of Moderate Earthquakes in Kanto, Japan. M. Imoto ( imoto@bosai.go.jp ) NationalResearch Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention

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M imoto imoto bosai go jp nationalresearch institute for

Statistical Models Based onthe Gutenberg-Richter a and b valuesfor Estimating Probabilities of Moderate Earthquakesin Kanto, Japan

M. Imoto ( imoto@bosai.go.jp )

NationalResearch Institute for

Earth Science and Disaster Prevention

Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken 305-0006, Japan

Statsei4

10/Jan/2006 14:30-15:00


Utsu 1977
Utsu (1977)

: Validity



Example 1
Example 1

(After L.M.Jones 1985)


Example 2
Example 2

Gutenberg – Richter a, b values


M imoto imoto bosai go jp nationalresearch institute for
Data

  • Target: M 5.0

  • Study Volume: 100x100x90 km3 in Kanto

  • Model Period: 1990-1999, 38 events

  • Test Period: 2000-Sept.2005, 19 events

  • Samples: 5.0 > M  2.0 within R=20km 10 years before time of assess.




A model b model
A-Model & B-Model

: M of Target

: Cutoff M

A-Model: variation of a-value

B-Model: variation of a- and b- values


Information gain
Information Gain

in Restrospective Analysis


Model period a model b model performance charts
Model PeriodA-Model & B-Model Performance Charts






Axb model
AxB-Model

AxB-Model: variation of a- and b- values


Model period a model a b model performance
Model PeriodA-Model & A×B-Model Performance


Test period a model a b model performance
Test PeriodA-Model & A×B -Model Performance