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M. Imoto ( imoto@bosai.go.jp ) NationalResearch Institute for

Statistical Models Based on the Gutenberg-Richter a and b values for Estimating Probabilities of Moderate Earthquakes in Kanto, Japan. M. Imoto ( imoto@bosai.go.jp ) NationalResearch Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention

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M. Imoto ( imoto@bosai.go.jp ) NationalResearch Institute for

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  1. Statistical Models Based onthe Gutenberg-Richter a and b valuesfor Estimating Probabilities of Moderate Earthquakesin Kanto, Japan M. Imoto ( imoto@bosai.go.jp ) NationalResearch Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken 305-0006, Japan Statsei4 10/Jan/2006 14:30-15:00

  2. Utsu (1977) : Validity

  3. Aki (1981)

  4. Example 1 (After L.M.Jones 1985)

  5. Example 2 Gutenberg – Richter a, b values

  6. Data • Target: M 5.0 • Study Volume: 100x100x90 km3 in Kanto • Model Period: 1990-1999, 38 events • Test Period: 2000-Sept.2005, 19 events • Samples: 5.0 > M  2.0 within R=20km 10 years before time of assess.

  7. Model Period

  8. Test Period

  9. A-Model & B-Model : M of Target : Cutoff M A-Model: variation of a-value B-Model: variation of a- and b- values

  10. Information Gain in Restrospective Analysis

  11. Model PeriodA-Model & B-Model Performance Charts

  12. “conditional distribution” a(x) b(x)

  13. a-value

  14. b-value

  15. b-value

  16. AxB-Model AxB-Model: variation of a- and b- values

  17. Model PeriodA-Model & A×B-Model Performance

  18. Test PeriodA-Model & A×B -Model Performance

  19. Summary

  20. Probability Gain

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