1 / 34

Analyzing Hurricane Data: Frequency, Intensity, and Trends Over Time

This report examines hurricane intensity, frequency, and duration based on historical data from 1851 to 2006. It explores relationships between maximum wind velocity, minimum central pressure, and landfall patterns, providing Chi-squared statistics and regression analyses. The findings suggest no consistent pattern of increased hurricane frequency or strength, challenge existing theories on global warming's impact on hurricanes, and emphasize the complexities of hurricane formation. The analysis raises questions about measurement techniques and the dynamics influencing storm behavior.

judson
Download Presentation

Analyzing Hurricane Data: Frequency, Intensity, and Trends Over Time

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. TEAM TERMINATOR Brian Novak Michael Cleaver Danny Ohrn Emily Ramage

  2. TEAM TERMINATOR • Strength • Power • Frequency • Duration

  3. Al Gore says WHAT??????

  4. However, the actual hurricane data tells a different story… Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Maximum Wind Velocity

  5. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 203.394 Chance Probability 0.0055

  6. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 3.4198Critical Value for p=0.01 32.00Chance Probability 0.9997

  7. Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-1899 -0.0722 Knots/Year 1900-1949 0.707 Knots/Year 1950-2006 -0.219 Knots/Year

  8. Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Minimum Central Pressure

  9. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 25.8697 Chance Probability 1.000

  10. Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 0.48922 Critical Value for p=0.01 32.00 Chance Probability 0.9999

  11. Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-1899 0.1754 Millibars/Year 1900-1949 0.352 Millibars/Year 1950-2006 0.1513 Millibars/Year

  12. Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-1899 0.1754 Millibars/Year 1900-1949 0.352 Millibars/Year 1950-2006 0.1513 Millibars/Year

  13. Landfall: A Measure of a Storm’s Power

  14. Hurricane Formation • The Three Requirements for Hurricane Formation • Over Land, Hurricanes Die

  15. Our Data • The Percentage of Measurable Storms that Reached Land • The Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm

  16. Standard Deviation was 0.20 days • A Chi2 Test Determined X2 = 0.24 with 14 degrees of freedom • Critical Value = 10.83, The null hypothesis cannot be rejected!

  17. Landfall Conclusions • There is no linear correlation between time and percentage of storms that reach land • The average number of days on land per land-bound storm

  18. Frequency of Damage Insurance Industry takes notice -Al Gore Swiss re sigma report More People in Hazard areas -IWTC report

  19. Frequency of Hurricanes Chi squared value .125254642

  20. Major Hurricanes Absolute #’s increasing Chi squared Value .738022

  21. Category 4&5’s have doubled in the Last Year1 -Al Gore Chi Squared Value 3.449001

  22. Frequency • Increase in destructiveness not correlated • Frequency of major hurricanes is increasing • Shows some correlation to temperature • Al’s short term scare

  23. Duration Categories: • Season Duration • Storm • All Storms • In Hurricane Status • Longest Yearly Storm

  24. 10 Year Average Season Duration 1851-2006 Chi-squared: 35.94 Critical value, 16 df, p = 0.001: 39.25

  25. Average Storm Duration vs. Temperature Deviation 1900-2006 Chi squared: 191 Critical Value, 11 df, p = 0.001: 31.26

  26. Average Storm Duration as Hurricane vs. Temperature Variation 1900-2006

  27. Longest Yearly Storm vs. Temperature Deviation 1900-2006

  28. Duration Conclusions • Season duration shows a positive correlation over time. • Data does not support a relationship between storm duration and global temperature increase since 1900.

  29. CONCLUSIONS • Data does not consistently support a pattern of increased frequency and strength of hurricanes over time. • Linear relationships remain linear despite increasing temperature trends. • Discrepancies in measurement techniques? • Intricate dynamics of hurricane formation? • Single variable data modeling techniques?

  30. References Raw hurricane data from Greg Bothun’s link on Blackboard.uoregon.edu Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/ 1Lovgren , Stefan. "Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" Movie: Fact or Hype?.” National Geographic News. May 25, 2006. National Geographic. 24 Apr 2007 <http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/060524-global-warming.html>. IWTC Statement "Global Warming and Hurricanes." Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Dec. 7, 2007. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 24 Apr 2007 <http://www.gfdl.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html>.

More Related