GRM Change Estimation

1. GRMChange Estimation Jeff Turner October 14, 2015 FIA Core Band Meeting Oklahoma, City

2. The Lee Hotel was built in Oklahoma City in 1900. This is from a postcard dated July 8, 1907. It had the first electric elevator in town. Famous guests included "Buffalo” Bill Cody and then New York Governor Teddy Roosevelt. Certain floors were reserved for men only, one for single women, and several for married couples.

3. The Lee Hotel was destroyed by fire in 1908.

4. It was rebuilt in 1909 as the Lee-Huckins Hotel. It served as temporary state capitol from 1910-1917.

5. The Huckins Hotel 1952

6. July 10, 1971

7. The Huckins Hotel was demolished on July 12, 1971.

8. The Huckins Hotel site was eventually converted into an office building (completed in 1981). The Renaissance Hotel is right next door (completed in 2000).

9. The Huckins Conference Room at the Renaissance Hotel. Paul G. Huckins was Secretary/Treasurer for the Huckins family company. He was also my great uncle. Photo credit: Elizabeth Burrill (2015)

10. They also owned this hotel, The Vendome, in Knoxville, TN.

11. It is now a parking lot.

12. Devon Energy Center is a really big building in Oklahoma City.

13. Devon Energy Center The Devon Energy Center (also known as the Devon Tower) is a 50-story corporate skyscraper in downtown Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and is tied as the 43rd tallest building in the United States. Construction began October 6, 2009, and was completed in October 2012. The tower is located next to the historic Colcord Hotel, which Devon currently owns, on Sheridan Avenue between Hudson and Robinson Avenues.

14. Users also want change information Devon Energy mergers and acquisitions • 1992 - acquisition of Hondo Oil and Gas for $122 million • 1996 - acquired Kerr-McGee’s North American onshore oil and gas properties for $250 million • 1998 - acquired Northstar Energy for $750 million. • 1999 - The $2.6 billion acquisition of PennzEnergy establishes Devon as a significant offshore Gulf Of Mexico operator • 2000 - merged with Santa Fe Snyder in a $3.5 billion deal • 2001 - acquisition of Anderson Exploration for $4.6 billion, making Devon the third-largest independent gas producer in Canada. • 2002 - acquires Mitchell Energy for $3.5 billion, making Devon the largest operator in the Barnett Shale of Texas. • 2003 - $5.3 billion merger with Ocean Energy creates the largest U.S.-based independent oil and gas producer. • 2006 - acquired Chief Oil and Gas Barnett Shale leasehold for $2.2 billion • 2009 - announced plans to sell all of the company's international and Gulf of Mexico assets during 2010. • 2014 - Devon Energy completes acquisition of GeoSouthern Energy Corp's Eagle Ford asset for $6.1 billion. • 2014 - Devon Energy combines midstream assets with Crosstex Energy, Inc. to form EnLink Midstream, LLC.

15. But there is more… Devon Energy was founded in 1971 • Which was when the baseball baby was born • Which also happens to be the same year that the Huckins hotel was demolished Devon Energy was previously located in the office building next to the Renaissance Hotel

16. Contental Resources now occupies that office building, which is at the site of the Lee/Lee-Huckins/Huckins Hotel.

17. Summarize change at the Huckins Hotel site for our “users” What is the time period of interest? • Before or after Oklahoma statehood (1907) • Before or after WWI/Depression/WWII • Since the Dodgers moved from Brooklyn in 1958? • Before or after hotel demolition (1971) • Most recent five year period? Ten year period?

18. Changes at the Huckins Hotel site Are you interested how any of these changed? • Land Use: Hotel, mixed use hotel/state capitol, hotel, undeveloped, corporate office • Ownership: Lee, Lee-Huckins, Huckins, Devon, Continental • Site disturbance (fire, wrecking ball) • Height of building. If so, in feet or in number of stories? • Maximum occupancy • Number of elevators (subdivide by rate of speed and number of passenger classifications) • Architectural style • Square feet of glass • Average annual total income/profit/taxes paid based on all activity at the site

19. Changes at the Huckins Hotel site Yes, but I also want to know…. • All of that same information but for all sites previously owned by the Huckins family hotel business (AR, IL, IN, MO, TN, TX) • Now that I have that, how about for every site owned by all of the families/companies that have ever been or are currently associated with the former Huckins Hotel site location, by owner type…wait, but I really only need that for sites that had been a hotel for more than 32 years. Based on my graduate research 32 years is a magic number. • How many cars could fit on all of those sites that either had a parking garage attached or were a parking lot (either previously or currently)? • Please categorize vehicles by make, model, and year. Can you do it by color, too?

20. What’s the Point? Nothing stays the same • Trees (like buildings) are born, grow, and die • Land changes from forests to parking lots • Sometimes old homesteads revert to forest • Forests are managed, thinned, harvested, planted • Other forests are unmanaged, harvested, sold • At certain times, some species suffer significant mortality to insects • Forests burn • Forests regenerate

21. What’s the Point? Our users want to summarize growth, removal, and mortality by all kinds of stuff: • Ownership • Public, private • Size class • Stand size • Tree diameter classes • Temporal bases • Previous attributes • Current attributes • Changes within classes that change (accounting method) • Across time periods and geographic areas that span multiple plot designs and protocols

22. Why is there a GRM Task Team? • FIA has been providing GRM rates estimates… • In the east • NOTE: RMRS has a regional GM method, but not R • In terms of volume, which is estimated for the • merchantable bole in cubic feet • sawlog in board feet • The western units have remeasurement plots now • Needed methods for mid-point estimates for removal and mortality trees • Required adding nuances for the macroplot in PNWRS • Users want change estimates expressed in terms of biomass and carbon • Added microplot for change in biomass and carbon on saplings • Included changes for total above ground, tops/limbs, stumps and below ground

23. What’s the bottom line? • GRM task team added PNWRS and RMRS to the production NIMS GRM compilation system in the spring/summer of 2015 • Currently produces volume just like in the east • Only in Utah for RMRS • Biomass and carbon change estimation update: • Initial beta testing started two weeks ago in EVALIDator • Goal is to complete full testing by end of November • Include periodic and RMRS regional GM estimates • Share results at FIA Symposium in December • Production in early 2016

24. DISCLAIMER: My family never got into the oil business. This should not be taken as support for “big” oil.

25. COMPLETE DISCLOSURE: While my extended family did mingle in the hotel world, no one in my immediate family was ever in the hotel business. This presentation should not be taken as support for any candidate.

26. So what’s next for the GRM Team? • Standing dead change estimates • All land change estimation • Currently we have forestland and timberland • Need urban change estimation • Link with PPD/Sample Organization • Allow for additional flexibility in processing/analysis • Remove as much hard coding as we can while remaining sane • Prepare for remeasurement in additional RMRS states

27. Nor did anyone in my immediate family ever buy stock in an upstart company owned by a friendly neighbor in their little home town. He started out with this five and dime store in Northwest Arkansas.

28. Which later became all this…. That 5/10 cent store is a museum now.