Assessment of the WRF Model for Use in Regional Predictability Studies
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Assessment of the WRF Model for Use in Regional Predictability Studies Joshua P. Hacker and Dave P. Baumhefner (NCAR). Motivation Approach  building a house Early results Future directions. Why Care?. Understand the capabilities and limitations of a current-generation grid point LAM

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Motivation approach building a house early results future directions
Assessment of the WRF Model for Use in Regional Predictability StudiesJoshua P. Hacker and Dave P. Baumhefner (NCAR)

  • Motivation

  • Approach  building a house

  • Early results

  • Future directions

WRF User's Workshop


Why care
Why Care? Predictability Studies

  • Understand the capabilities and limitations of a current-generation grid point LAM

  • Create a stronger foundation for regional predictability studies

  • To what extent can we treat WRF as a proxy for the real atmosphere?

WRF User's Workshop


Building a house

Mesoscale predictability Predictability Studies

Resolution

Scale interaction

Lateral boundaries

Building a House

WRF

WRF User's Workshop


Comparison with unbounded model
Comparison With Unbounded Model Predictability Studies

  • WRF on hemispheric domain vs. CCM3

  • 90 km at 45°N vs. T170

  • 10-member ensembles

  • Perturbations follow Errico-Baumhefner

  • 6-day forecasts

  • 4-5 winter 2001-02 cases chosen from different regimes

WRF User's Workshop


Motivation approach building a house early results future directions

WRF Predictability Studies


Motivation approach building a house early results future directions

CCM3 Predictability Studies


Motivation approach building a house early results future directions

WRF Predictability Studies


Future directions
Future Directions Predictability Studies

  • Establish a valid perfect-model study region in (resolution, domain, forecast length) space

  • Observation system experiments

  • Confident predictability studies of mesoscale phenomena

WRF User's Workshop