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Snake River Water Operations Report - Forecast and Observations

This report covers reservoir operations and forecasts for the Snake River in October 2015, detailing capacity levels, precipitation forecasts, and water year-to-date statistics. It also includes a 2016 temperature and precipitation outlook, system carryover comparisons, and conclusions on winter flows and flood control operations.

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Snake River Water Operations Report - Forecast and Observations

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  1. Upper Snake Reservoir Operations October 13, 2015 Henry’s Fork Watershed Council

  2. 41% of Capacity

  3. 88% of Capacity

  4. 29% of Capacity

  5. Coordinated Forecast Month-JulySnake River nr Heise, ID • January Forecast 109% (4,130 KAF) • 78% of Average Precipitation • February Forecast 101% (3,625 KAF) • 77% of Average Precipitation • March Forecast 95% (3,256 KAF) • 41% of Average Precipitation • April Forecast 78% (2,515 KAF) • 59% of Average Precipitation • May Forecast 63% (1,800 KAF) • 136% of Average Precipitation

  6. 2015 Water Year-to-Date Precipitation

  7. WY2015 Percent 30yr Avg. Runoff • Snake River nr Heise, ID • April-July Forecast 78% (2,515 KAF) • April-July Observed 85% (2,740 KAF) • WY2015 Observed 91% (4,530 KAF) • Henrys Fork nr Island Park, ID • April-July Forecast 47% (102 KAF) • April-July Observed 59% (127 KAF) • WY2015 Observed Runoff 68% (319 KAF)

  8. 2016 Temperature Outlook

  9. 2016 Precipitation Outlook

  10. Conclusions • System carryover is lower than in 2014 but good overall • Good probability of high system storage for 2016 allocations • Minimum winter flows at most facilities • Not expected to change unless flood control operations are needed • Current winter forecasts lack confidence • Abnormal ocean temperatures • Long-lead forecast uncertainty

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