Evaluating the potential impacts of invasive species. Chris Baddeley Policy Manager Biosecurity New Zealand. Overview. Purpose of evaluation Method of evaluation Presentation of results Examples Painted apple moth Didymo Other New Zealand examples. Purpose of impact evaluation.
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Biosecurity New Zealand
Purpose of evaluation
Method of evaluation
Presentation of results
Contributes to decisions on:
Forms a key part of the business case for new funding from Government (or industry) for a pest response
In New Zealand pest response decisions based on:
Impact evaluation needed to help determine economic justification and priority for action.
Also used for communications purposes.
Assess quantifiable pest impacts in the absence of Government intervention (to determine potentially avoidable costs)
Develop scenarios around the likely range of impacts. Key factors are:
Research what is known about the pest (often not a lot for new invaders)
Use experts panels to:
Also use expert panels to:
Some requirements for an expert panel:
Impacts can be:
Generally exclude impacts that are too small or too uncertain from numerical assessment (including intangibles).
Good resource information is the key to reliable estimation of impacts
Also information on likely adaptive behaviour by industry, landowners and the public
Can undertake some short-term research to gain further information:
Impacts generally determined as a stream of costs stretching into the future
Impacts generally presented as a “present value” (discounted). Need to determine time-scale for assessment. Options include:
Results can be expressed as:
Limits on geographical spread None
Rate of spread: Throughout Auckland region in ten years
Throughout rest of New Zealand in fifteen years
Distribution of present value total impacts 2002/03 to 2021/22: New Zealand
Impacts not modelled (small or too uncertain)
Limits on geographical spread Potentially affects a high percentage of high-order river reaches in all regions
Rate of spread: Throughout NZ within 7 years of detection
Impacts not assessed: