WFC #18 – IPC Design Approach Chuck Holden General Dynamics Information Technology Contractor

1. WFC #18 – IPC Design Approach Chuck Holden General Dynamics Information Technology Contractor J7, Joint and Coalition Warfare, Joint Development

2. Design Focus Areas • Problem Statement • Desired Outcome • Experiment Objectives • Assumptions • Operational View (OV-1) • Design Considerations • Design Approach: Framework and Organization Construct • Daily Battle Rhythm • Manning Considerations • Training • Key Events Timeline

3. Restatement of the Military Problem Joint Force Commanders lack a common, interoperable capability to rapidly aggregate and analyze the information necessary to conduct adaptive theater distribution planning and facilitate timely execution decisions in austere environments across the range of military operations.

4. Desired Outcomes Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) document (i.e., Initial Capabilities Document [ICD], Capabilities Development Document [CDD], and/or doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, and facilities [DOTMLPF] Change Request [DCR] as appropriate)

5. Experiment Objectives • Identify information required to conduct logistics and mobility support analysis in the development of distribution networks at the operational level. • Propose potential solutions to aggregate and analyze the information required for the JFC to evaluate courses of action.

6. Assumptions TBD

7. Types of Experimentation • Discovery • Determine potential military utility • Explore trade space • Assess conditions where relationships and requirements are not well known • Hypothesis Testing • Build knowledge • Refine understanding • Prove/disprove assertion, position or statement of belief • Demonstration • Show how a capability or process works • Recreating known truth

8. { Sea Basing Collaboration Global Cell Robust ISR Rapid deployment Adaptive planning Inter-theater coordination Deny sanctuaries Examples Experiment Hypotheses - TBD “educated guesses of what might happen” • Useful: • Help to clarify what experiment is about • Identify logical thread of the experiment • Guide experiment design and data collection • Nothing magic: • If ________________; then ________________. proposed solution(s) (treatment)independent variable potential cause problem to be overcome dependent variable(outcome) possible effect

9. Different Levels of Hypothesis If an operational commander and staff employ a comprehensive approach to operations, thenthey will have the ability to create a holistic understanding and representation of the operating environment, the adversary, friendly, and neutral forces. Capability Level (overarching) Ifan operational commander and staff employ the knowledge base development process, thenthey will have the ability to gain and maintain situational awareness/understanding and common intent. Experimental Level (measurable-MOE/MOP) MOE/MOP SA/SU  XX CI  YY Statistical Level

10. Methods of Experimentation • Methods • – Analytical Wargame • – Constructive Simulation • – Human-in-the-Loop • – Field Experiments • Decisions affecting selection: • – Concept/capability maturity • – Experiment objectives • – Resource availability (i.e., personnel, time, money) • Different types and methods are more appropriate at various stages of capability development and exploration • Projects may require combining types and methods

11. UNCLASSIFIED . Operational /Strategic Level OV-1 Joint Deployment and Distribution Enterprise (Physical, financial, information, and Comms networks) GCSS, GCCS, GTN, IGC, SMS, WPS, GATES, DTS, etc. System & Data Integration Military Problem • Warfighter Challenge #18 • What: Limited Objective Experiment • Why: Identify Capabilities Requirements to conduct supportability and Feasibility Analysis at Theater Level • How: Analytical War-game • Process: BAR, Workshops, War-game • Scenario: DPS Informed Scenario • Outcome: JCIDS Document Joint Force Commanders lack a common, interoperable capability to rapidly aggregate and analyze the information necessary to conduct adaptive theater distribution planning and facilitate timely execution decisions in austere environments across the range of military operations. Logistics Visibility, Situational Awareness and Understanding at the Theater Level (POD to Point of Need) Logistics Planning, Management & Decision Making in the Joint Environment for all Ranges of Military Operations (ROMO) Phase 0 – Phase V COCOM’S Areas of Responsibility Theater distribution planning includes: - Establishing, synchronizing, and adjusting optimal multi-modal, multi-nodal theater distribution operations - Comprehensive supportability and feasibility analysis in support of course of action development and execution of distribution operations which may include IA/MN/HN/NGO - The capability to assess risks associated with theater distribution operations and analyze alternative courses of action and follow-on branch and sequel plans UNCLASSIFIED

12. Design Considerations • BAR results: • Examine existing logistics and mobility capabilities and processes (potential solutions) used for theater logistics and mobility decision support. • Assess applicability of these capabilities and processes (potential solutions) to address the requirements identified in the experiment problem statement and objectives. • Identify deficiencies associated with the existing capabilities and processes (potential solutions) to satisfy JTF distribution requirements. • Theater Logistics Decision Support Tool (TLDST) Requirements • JCIDS documentation requirements

13. Distribution Challenge – Design Considerations Who will do it with what equipment, resources? What we will do? Idea, Intent COA Forces Info / DATA Info / DATA • Step 3: TLDST Capability Attributes in terms of desired outcomes • Identify & prioritize Capability attributes for rapid aggregation & analysis of information to conduct adaptive theater distribution planning and to facilitate timely execution decisions in austere environments across the range of military operations. Systems &/or Processes Systems &/or Processes Distribution Decisions • Step 1: TLDST Capability Requirements • What are the logistics and mobility support requirements? • How are these requirements defined? • What aspects of End-to-End visibility is needed for distribution decision making? Systems &/or Processes Systems &/or Processes Info / DATA • Step 2: TLDST Capability Information • / Data Element Requirements • What information / data is needed to support requirements? • Where does it reside? • How does the user find it? • How the user accesses, ingest & use it? Info / DATA Expenditure & Consumption How will it be delivered under what conditions Infrastructure & Services What will be expended and consumed?

14. UNCLASSIFIED WARGAME Design Approach – Framework Refine DCAP, Design Plans Scenario & Vignettes Validate Capability Requirements using scenario & vignettes that are representative of the Range of Military Operations Define & Refine Wargame Scope Military Engagement, Security Cooperation, & Deterrence • Leverage BAR & other Logistics Efforts to refine list of Processes, Capability Requirements & begin developing Data Elements • Develop Scenario & Vignette Focus • Refine Capability requirements, Attributes & Data Elements • Assessment of existing capabilities to satisfy Capability Requirements and to what degree • Vignettes that allows for validation of Capability Requirements MPC IPC Prior to IPC Initial list of Processes & Capabilities Requirements Crisis Response and Limited Contingency Operations Weekly Telecom Weekly Telecom Major Operations & Campaigns Weekly Telecom / FPC Timeframe: Near Term (2012 – 2015) Focus: Creating an Experimental Framework to enable Data Collection to Support JCID Documentation UNCLASSIFIED

15. UNCLASSIFIED WARGAME Wargame Construct 26 Jun: Day 1 AM & PM Scenario / Vignettes Validate Capability Requirements using scenarios & vignettes that are representative of the Range of Military Operations AM: Sign-in, Training and Update Briefings PM: Practice Trial CJTF Planning Staff (s) (May be more than one CJTF Planning Staff depending on analysis & Data Collection requirement) • Vignettes may be stand alone or build on each other. • They will use the same background data and road to war info. Surveys / Hotwash 30 min each Military Engagement, Security Cooperation, & Deterrence • Expected Trial Run Time ~3 hrs 27 Jun: Day 2 AM Trial #1: Players given Vignette #1, Mission, Tasks and Cdr’s Intent Crisis Response and Limited Contingency Operations Trial #1 HA/DR Operations and Logistics SMEs Surveys – 30 min 27 Jun: Day 2 PM Trial #2: Players given Vignette #2, Mission, Tasks and Cdr’s Intent Major Operations & Campaigns Trial #2 Major Combat Ops Surveys / Hotwash 30 min each Given to CJTF Planning Staff: Background , Forces and Resources for Planning UNCLASSIFIED

16. UNCLASSIFIED • Read Ahead Material • Sent to participants NLT 1 week Prior to STARTEX Example of Trial #1 Sequence of Events – 27 Jun Day 2 AM • Logistics Supportability Feasibility Analysis should address: • Completeness of Logistics Decision Support Capability requirements • Attributes of the Logistics Decision Support Capability to rapidly aggregate and analyze the information. • Sufficiency of existing capabilities to meet Logistics Decision Support Capability requirements in the areas below. • - COA/Distribution Planning Analysis • - Current & Movement Planning • - System Interoperability • DOTMLPF implications “Scenario” Humanitarian Assistance /Disaster Relief (HA/DR) Scenario Team Scenario Update Brief ------------- Vignette #1 Situation Update Brief & WARNORD (JTF Mission & Tasks) • Read Ahead should include: • Road to War • AOR • CJTF Task Org & C2 Structure • - Lay down of Forces for Planning • List of Existing Distribution capabilities • Loc. of Forces & Resources for planning • Constraints / Restraints CJTF Planning Staff J3/5, J5/4, Service Comp Reps, etc. COA Development & Logistics Supportability and Feasibility Analysis RFIs White Cell (HHQs, Host Nation, Coalition & Supporting Cmd Representation) UNCLASSIFIED

17. “Draft” LOE Battle Rhythm Day 1 26 Jun Tuesday Day 2 27 Jun Wednesday Day 3 28 Jun Thursday 25 Jun Monday 0800 CST Vignette 1 Briefing Admin Capability Requirements & Existing Capabilities Training Road-to-War & Scenario Briefings AAR Trial #1 3 hrs Travel Day 1200 CST Lunch 1330 CST Surveys Vignette 2 Briefing Practice Vignette Travel Practice Trial 3 hrs Trial #2 3 hrs 1700 CST Surveys Surveys 1730 CST Hotwash Hotwash 1800 CST

18. Manning Considerations • Experience level • Deployment & distribution (D2) background • Theater-level experience • Knowledge of theater distribution systems • Knows what data is important to commander, how data is collected, how data is used for making actionable distribution decisions • Can be either logistics, systems or communications background • Suggested Skill Sets / J-Codes: (TBD)

19. Training • Multiple Methods: • Distributed via DCO • Read Aheads posted to portal • During Wargame Execution: Briefings on Day 1 along with Practice vignette

20. Key Events Timeline 2012 17 Jan – BAR complete 17-18 Jan – Initial Planning Conf (Suffolk, VA) 14-16 Feb – Mid Planning Conf (Scott AFB) 13-15 Mar – Final Planning Conf(Fair Lakes, VA) 26-28 Jun – Wargame (Scott AFB) Jul – ESG Final Outbrief VTC Aug – Senior Leaders Seminar (Scott AFB) 2011 1-2 Nov – Stakeholders Conference 16 Nov – Executive Steering Group (ESG) 1 Dec – Draft BAR out for review

21. UNCLASSIFIED QUESTIONS TCJ5/4-SS UNCLASSIFIED