Normal Human Misperception: Why Good Advice Doesn ’ t Always Work

1. Normal Human Misperception:Why Good Advice Doesn’t Always Work Bob Mossman, Ed.S., NCSP rmossman@bloomfield.org

3. When people find it easy to imagine an event they overestimate the likelihood it will occur. People spend 12% of time thinking about the future, one out of every 8 hours. (Singer, 1997).

4. Why do we imagine and predict this way? So we feel a sense of control! Feelings of being in control are essential to feeling OK. Feeling out of control is essential for anxiety, depression, etc. At IEPs we are in control of the information, and parents are more likely the one’s fearing a lack of control.

5. Misremembering This happens more often than we believe. One of the most powerful personal beliefs are our own experiences and a memory is a personal experience, like our first day of kindergarten. But memories are influenced in ways we are only beginning to document.

6. bed rest awake tired dream wake snooze blanket doze slumber snore nap peace yawn drowsy Read these words to yourself.

7. Speaking from the Gut. We automatically predict based on little information. This is also called jumping to conclusions. Our brains do this so often and so fast, we hardly realize it’s happening. Our predictions are highly influenced by our momentary feelings. These feelings steer our thinking. When talking to parents and teachers, we can be picturing a “learning disability” in entirely different ways than they are picturing it.

8. There is a natural tendency to ignore absences of information even though this information influences everyone’s cause/effect predictions and conclusions. Absence of information means the same as asking the question “What’s missing here?”

9. Trigrams: Deduction Game SXY GTR BCG EVX Average # of trials to learn = 34 sets

10. What’s More Important?Candy or Answers Geography questions: What are the capitals of Iran Australia Argentina Peru Finland

11. Do people really know why they do what they do? The research suggests that they don’t.

13. Economics & Psychology Standard Economics: People make rational decisions. Behavioral Economics: People are highly influenced by non-rational factors.

14. Try This: Take the last 3 numbers of your phone number. Add 400.

15. In what year did Attila the Hun cross the Rhine river to attack what is now France?

16. Choose One Cost for a new LCD TV 36 inch LCD is $690.00 42 inch LCD is $850.00 50 inch LCD is $1480.00 What do most people choose?

17. Math Problem A candy bar and a piece of gum together cost $1.10. The candy bar cost $1.00 more than the gum. How much does the gum cost?

18. Free Something for free makes us feel that we have nothing to lose. In most transactions there is an upside and a downside. But for free, it feels as though there is no downside.

20. Stereotypical Threat Stereotypical threat is a standard predicament of life.

21. Miniature Golf Studies White Students: “Natural Athletic Ability” Black Students: “Sports Strategic intelligence.”

22. Women, Math andStereotypical Threat A study about women and math. Women and men with strong math skills. Women told, “You may have heard that women don’t do as well as men in standardized math tests.”

23. A Motivation Study Task: Drag circles using computer a mouse 1. low pay - 50 cents (total = 101) 2. high pay - $5.00 dollars (total = 159) 3. social favor - nothing (total = 168) Task: Drag circles using computer mouse

24. Experiment in Ethics Kwame Anthony Appiah

25. 3 Studies 1. Help picking up papers if just found a dime 2. Princeton Seminary students reflecting on the Good Samaritan 3. Change for a dollar standing outside fragrant bakery versus neutral-smelling drug store

26. Correspondence Bias The tendency to be unaware the role of context in determining behavior and to suppose that what people do is best explained by their character rather than their circumstance. Example 1. Getting pushed while standing in line

27. Correspondence Bias Example 2. Liberals thought of George W. Bush as a liar. George W. Bush describes himself as making tough decisions, standing up for democracy.

28. Trolleyology Think of the runaway trolley hurdling down a San Francisco street What would people do?

30. Cognitive Dissonance (Festinger) The engine of self-justification State of tension occurs when a person holds 2 inconsistent ideas, attitudes, or beliefs.

31. Example A two pack per day smoker Self-justifications: • The smoker tries to not think about consequences 2. The smoker quits 3. Convince oneself that smoking isn’t harmful 4. Prevents weight gain 5. Smoking helps individual to relax

32. Fraternity study The more emotionally and physically demanding a fraternity’s initiation rituals, the more the new members thought it was worthwhile.

33. Confirmation Bias In 1960 the Presidential candidates had the first televised debate. Each side thought their guy won.

34. Weapons of Mass Destruction 2003 study by The Knowledge Network. 50% of Republicans thought such weapons had been found.

35. Drew Westen, Ph.D. MRI scans of Republicans and Democrats listening to Bush or Kerry 2004.

36. Capital Punishment Lord, Ross, Lepper, 1979 Subjects who either favored or opposed capital punishment were read emotionally charged articles on whether capital punishment deters violent crimes. One article concludes that capital punishment did deter crime. One article concludes that capital punishment did not deter crime.

37. Emotions = Plumbing Catharsis: “Damn It Doll” The idea that using a punching bag relieves anger by getting the angry out is one of the most entrenched convictions in our society.

38. Catharsis Study 1966 Freudian oriented Michael Kahn, Harvard clinical psychology graduate student, took polygraph and blood pressure of subjects while acting annoyed and made insulting remakes to the subjects about their mother.

39. Political Experts Phillip Tetlock (2005) “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?”

40. Schnooks How to maintain one’s low self esteem Consider a success as a fluke

41. Israeli/Palestinian Study (2005) Israeli Proposals renamed Palestinian Proposals Palestinian Proposals renamed Israeli Proposals

42. Party Over Policy Democrats and Republicans 2003

43. Social Psychologist Anthony Greenwald The self is ruled by a “totalitarian ego” that ruthlessly destroys information it doesn’t want to hear to help us justify our actions and make us look and feel good about ourselves.

44. The Wonderful O Carol Tavris has fond memories of her father reading a book to her as a young girl. A band of pirates take over an island and forbade the locals to speak any word containing the letter O. She has vivid memories of him reading to her, joking with her about what the O stood for. But her memory fooled her.

45. Psychologist Daniel Offer Long-Term Study 1962: interviewed 73 fourteen-year-old boys about their lives: sexuality, home life, religion, parents, parental discipline and other emotional issues. 1996: Interviewed almost all again. Conclusion: The adult men’s memorial of the adolescent attitudes was no better than chance.

47. Bob Mossman, Ed.S., NCSP Bloomfield Hills Schools rmossman@bloomfield.org