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Dynamic migration modelling: developing a new tool for AIACC biodiversity projections
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  1. Dynamic migration modelling:developing a new tool for AIACC biodiversity projections MC Rutherford, GF Midgley, LW Powrie National Botanical Institute

  2. Aim: to simulate the migration of species, ratherthan the movement of species “envelopes” Cladoraphis present ~2050 retained range potential range

  3. Leucospermumtomentosum: ~10 year time slices

  4. What are the main challengesin realistic simulation of migration? • Dispersal (propagule production, vagility) • Recruit’s disturbance tolerance (fire, land use) • Establishment dynamics (recruitment,time to reproductive maturity) • Adult persistence (survivorship, propagule production)

  5. What type of approach? • Purely empirical (diffusion-type) • Purely mechanistic • Mixed mechanistic/empirical

  6. Why not simple diffusion-type? • Dispersal (propagule production, vagility) • Recruit’s disturbance tolerance (fire, land use) • Establishment dynamics (recruitment,time to reproductive maturity) • Adult persistence (survivorship, propagule production)

  7. What progress so far? • LAMOS – Landscape Modelling Shell (Nobel, Lavorel and Davies) Simulates species migration across a dynamic landscape (propagule production, dispersal, fire, population dynamics, landscape fragmentation) • MIGRATE (Collingham and Huntley)Simulates migration only (no disturbance or succession, but can simulate landscape fragmentation)

  8. MIGRATESpecies dispersal and migration in heterogeneous landscapes • Habitat suitability map (1024 x 1024 pixels max) • Reproductive data • Age to repr. maturity, longevity • Individual repr. output • Dispersal data • Dispersal functions appropriate to species dispersal behaviour • Gaussian • Weibull / Negative exponential • Negative power • Cauchy

  9. Parameters used for modelling spread of Tilia cordata

  10. Migration fronts, migration rate

  11. Hypothetical landscapes

  12. Effect of landscape structure on migration rate

  13. LAMOS The LAMOS shell is designed to allow users to explore the role of different processes in the dynamics of landscapes with the minimum of programming effort. LAMOS is being developed to provide a flexible modelling environment for the comparison of different approaches to modelling vegetation dynamics at the landscape scale. It is a modular program which factors landscape dynamics into four processes or modules: succession, disturbance, dispersal and lateral flows. The design keeps these processes sufficiently separate so that various implementations of module can be mixed together easily without breaking any fundamental assumptions that may underlie the program.