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Depletion of the North Sea and its Significance for Western Europe (a growing supply imbalance) J. Peter Gerling & Hilmar Rempel Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Hannover, Germany IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002 Definitions . Reserves

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slide1

Depletion of the North Sea

and its Significance for Western Europe

(a growing supply imbalance)

J. Peter Gerling & Hilmar Rempel

Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Hannover, Germany

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide2

Definitions

.

Reserves

  • hydrocarbon quantities proven in fields
  • can be produced economically with current technologies

Resources

  • geologically identified hydrocarbons
  • which can’t be economically produced under present conditions
  • unidentified but expected hydrocarbons
  • due to geological reasons in equivalent regions (yet to find)

Hereby we consider for resources as well as for reserves

the recoverable amount

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide3

Basic data

Area : 575.000 km2

Surrounding countries : UK, NO, DK, GE

Water depth : avg. 70 m, max. 725 m

HC provinces : Northern North Sea (Oil + G) Central North Sea (Oil + C + G)

Southern North Sea (Gas)

NOT included : Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea

Atlantic margin

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide4

Production history : Oil

1st discovery : 1969 (Ekofisk)

Peak discovery : 1974

1st production : 1971

Peak production : 2000

Cum. production : 4.6 Gt (end of 2001)

Reserves : 3.1 Gt

Resources : 2.0 Gt

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide5

North Sea

Oil Production

Mt

350

UK

Bild

Production history

Norway

300

Netherlands

Germany

250

Denmark

200

150

100

50

0

1970

1980

1990

2000

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide6

North Sea

Cumulative Production and Reserves

Gt

10

8

6

4

Reserves

2

Cumulative Production

0

1970

1980

1990

2000

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide7

North Sea

Cumulative Production, Reserves and R/P-Ratio

years

Gt

10

50

8

40

R/P

30

6

Reserves

4

20

2

10

Cumulative Production

0

0

1970

1980

1990

2000

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide8

6

Gt

2 %

Gt

production until

2026 with an

annual

decrease of

100%

10

4 %

Resources

4

6 %

2 Gt

2

Reserves

3 Gt

50 % depletion mid-point

5

0

31.12.2001

Produced

- 2

5 Gt

- 4

0%

0

- 6

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide9

North Sea

Production Profile and Giant Fields

350

1050

forecast

300

900

Depletion rate after 2001: 8.5 %

250

750

Reserve additions:

2002 - 2010:

100 Mt/a

2011 - 2025:

50 Mt/a

200

600

Giant Field Discovery in Mt

Production Mt/a

150

450

100

300

50

150

0

0

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

2025

2035

2045

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide10

North Sea

Oil Consumption of Western Europe and EU

Mt

1000

900

Consumption EU

Consumption WE

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide11

North Sea

Oil Consumption of Western Europe and EU

North Sea's Share to their Oil Supply

(%)

Mt

50

1000

Share EU

900

Share WE

40

Consumption EU

800

Consumption WE

700

30

600

500

20

400

300

10

200

100

0

0

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide12

oil  gas

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide13

Production history : Natural Gas

1st discovery : 1965 (West Sole)

Peak discovery : 1979

1st production : 1967

Peak production : 2005 ??

Cum. production : 3.0 T.m3 (end of 2001)

Reserves : 4.6 T.m3

Resources : 1.7 T.m3

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide14

North Sea

Natural Gas Production

G.m³

250

UK

Bild

Production history

Norway

200

Netherland

Germany

Denmark

150

100

50

0

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide15

North Sea

Cumulative Production and Reserves

T.m³

8

6

4

Reserves

2

Cumulative Production

0

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide16

North Sea

Cumulative Production, Reserves and R/P-Ratio

years

T.m³

80

8

60

6

R/P

40

4

Reserves

20

2

Cumulative Production

0

0

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide17

8

T.m³

2 %

T.m³

production until

2026 with an

annual

increase of

100%

9.3

6

Resources

0 %

1.7 T.m³

-2 %

4

- 4 %

- 6 %

Reserves

2

4.6 T.m³

50 % depletion mid-point

4.65

0

31.12.2001

Produced

3.0 T.m³

- 2

0%

0

- 4

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide18

North Sea

Natural Gas Consumption of Western Europe and EU

G.m³

600

Consumption EU

500

Consumption WE

400

300

200

100

0

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide19

North Sea

Natural Gas Consumption of Western Europe and EU

North Sea's Share to their Gas Supply

(%)

G.m³

600

60

Share EU

Share WE

500

50

Consumption EU

Consumption WE

400

40

300

30

200

20

100

10

0

0

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide20

> 1 - 10 Gt

Strategic Ellipse

> 10 - 20 Gt

containing ca. 70 % of world oil reserves

> 20 Gt

Countries with oil reserves > 1 Gt

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide21

Countries with natural gas reserves > 1 T.m³

> 1 - 5 T.m³

Strategic Ellipse

> 5 - 10 T.m³

containing ca. 70 % of world oil reserves

> 20 T.m³

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide22

Reserves

Cum.

Production

Resources

7,947

The Mediterranean -EUR of crude oil and NGL in Mt

(Only countries with EUR > 200 Mt)

...

Ukraine

Moldova

A u s t r i a

Switzerland

R u s s i a

Hungary

F r a n c e

Slovenia

Romania

Croatia

Geor-

Bosnia

gia

Yugos-

Herzogo-

323

lavia

vina

S p a i n

Bulgaria

Portugal

I t a l y

Albania

Mace-

donia

T u r k e y

Greece

Syria

221

S y r i a

1,302

M o r o c c o

544

Leba-

non

Israel

Jordan

A l g e r i a

T u n e s i a

5,159

2,410

Saudi

L i b y a

Arabia

A l g e r i a

E g y p t

L i b y a

(database: end 2000)

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide23

Reserves

Cum.

Production

Resources

7,161

The Mediterranean - EUR of natural gas in Gm³

(Only countries with EUR > 200 Gm³)

F r a n c e

Ukraine

Moldova

Reserves

Switzerland

A u s t r i a

R u s s i a

Hungary

Cum.

729

Slovenia

Romania

Production

Croatia

Geor-

Bosnia

Resources

gia

1,334

Herzogo-

Yugos-

vina

lavia

S p a i n

Bulgaria

Portugal

Albania

Mace-

donia

I t a l y

Syria

T u r k e y

Greece

Syria

A l g e r i a

483

394

M a r o c c o

Leba-

non

Israel

Jordan

T u n e s i a

2,428

Saudi

2,065

Arabia

L i b y a

E g y p t

(database: end 2000)

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide24

Moscow

R U S S I AN

from

W-Siberia

Western

Europe

F E D E R A T I O N

DRUZHBA

SE-Europe

Turkey

SOYUS

S Ü D L. U R A L

U K R A I N E

ASOVS

SEA

ASTANA

K A Z A K H S T A N

CPC

C

China

Japan

-

Sea

h

s

a

BLACK

a

h

k

l

a

B

SEA

u

c

GEORGIA

Aral

a

Ceyhan

(Mediter.Sea)

CASPIAN

L o w e r C a u c a s u s

Sea

China

Japan

s

K

y

ARMENIA

u

s

TIFLIS

y

T U R K E Y

N

l

Issyk-

K

ul

BISCHKEK

k

A

u

s

BAKU

U Z B E K I S T A N

m

KIRGISISTAN

H

LEGEND

AZER-

C

T

S

I

BAIJAN

E

N

TASHKENT

ERIEWAN

TURKMENISTAN

Boundaries

K

TPP

Capitals

a

r

a

k

Oil refineries

SEA

u

Turkey

(Mediterranean Sea)

m

Gas processing plants

H i g h l a n d o f I r a n

P A M I R

K o

Terminals

TAJIKISTAN

p

e

Oil pipelines

t d a g

DUSHANBE

E

ASHGABAD

l

Gas pipelines

b

u

s

r

Persian

Gulf

Z a g r o s

Oil pipeline projects

INDIEN

Gas pipeline projects

S

H

U

I R A N

K

I R A Q

TEHERAN

Oil fields

U

D

AFGHANISTAN

Gas fields

N

Persian

Gulf

I

KABUL

Pakistan

Pakistan

Gas-condensate fields

H

0 500 km

PAKISTAN

Pipeline-Network with Destinations and Refineries

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide25

Conclusions - Oil

  • North Sea is a mature oil province
  • peak production occurred in 2001
  • reserves underestimated ?
  • annual production decline will be > 5 %
  • accordingly, western Europe‘s oil import dependance will increase

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide26

Conclusions - Natural Gas

  • North Sea is a mature gas province
  • annual production is still increasing
  • peak production in front - 2005 ?
  • production can be kept stable for another
  • 1 – 2 decades
  • But: due to the increase in demand, western Europe‘s import dependance will rise

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide27

Conclusions - External Supplies

  • Russia (gas / oil)
  • Northern Africa (gas / oil)
  • Middle East (oil / gas?)
  • Caspian (oil / gas?)
  • Western Africa (oil)

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide29

55

16

57

23

33

33

Reserven

146

Ressourcen

Kum.

Förderung

Stand:31.12.2001

Gesamtpotential konventionelles Erdöl

363 Mrd. t

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide30

Gesamtpotential konventionelles Erdgas

425 Bill. m³

164

24

65

91

38

33

18

Reserven

Kum.

Förderung

Ressourcen

Stand: 31.12.2001

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide31

North Sea

%

Share of world

20

Oil

Natural gas

16

12

8

4

0

Reserves

Reserves

Production

Production

Resources

Resources

Consumption

Consumption

Consumption

Consumption

W-Europe

W-Europe

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

slide32

German oil production 1930 - 2050

Mt/y

10

6

EUR (estimated ultimate recovery)

320 Mt (10 )

1968

11 y

14 y

produced as per 31.12.2000

255 Mt

8

17 y

1962

20 y

remaining:

reserves

50 Mt

"yet to find"

15 Mt

12 y

14 y

6

1975

on the basis of data from 305 oilfields

EOR effective

depletion

mid-point

4

5y

16 y

2000

at 2050: remaining c. 4 Mt

production c. 0.2 Mt

2

1950

34 y

2217

0

cum. prod.

up to 1930:

c. 2 Mt

1930

1950

2000

2050

remaining

produced

time

65 Mt

255 Mt

2000

static lifetime of

reserves

reserves

production

"yet to find"

1950: post war boom

38 Mt

1.1 Mt

34 yrs.

233 yrs.

1962: max. reserves

113

6.8

17

20

1968: max. production

89

8.3

11

14

1975: depletion mid-point

72

5.8

12

14

2000: current status

50

3.1

16

5

"yet to find" figures on the basis of current EUR

Supplemented after HILLER 1997

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002