Hiroshi KOJIMA National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Tokyo

1. Basic skills, thinking skills, and competencies of skilled workers: a comparison of Thailand with East Asian and other Southeast Asian countries Hiroshi KOJIMA National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Tokyo

2. Purpose-1 • Describe trends in education at upper secondary and tertiary levels in East and Southeast Asia in relation to “demographic dividend” (DD) and compare competitiveness and information technology (IT) indicators.

3. Purpose-2 • Discuss the necessary human resource development (HRD) in the knowledge-based economy (KBE) with increased competition, focusing on their domestic policy implications and their cross-cultural links in Thailand.

4. Outline of Paper • Introduction • Trends in Education in East and Southeast Asia • Education and Training for Skill/Knowledge-Based Economy • International Links • Conclusion

5. Motivation • A textbook chapter on DD in Asia • Current Project on low fertility in Asian NIE’s • Analysis of socioeconomic attainment of Japanese youth • Analysis of socioeconomic attainment in SEA, drawing on SWAF microdata • FGD studies and surveys on women’s status, religion and sustainable urbanization in SEA including Bangkok and Hat Yai

6. Past Studies in English • On DD, HRD and KBE in Thailand • Wattana (2003) “Demographic Dividend” • Wongboonsins (2002) “Repositioning Low and Middle Level Labor to Upgrade the International Competitiveness of the Thai Economy” • Wongboonsin et al. (2003)”Demographic Change and Demographic Dividend in Thailand” • Jones (2003/2004)”The Utility of Education in Thailand and Indonesia”

7. DD and Asian Miracle • “Asian Miracle” has been achieved partly on the back of DD. • Compared with East Asia, education contributed less to past economic growth in Southeast Asia (SEA) including Thailand. • Thus, there should be more room for further economic growth through HRD in SEA.

8. DD and KBE • Period of “demographic dividend” is already over in Japan and is about to be over in Thailand and the NIEs. • All of them must upgrade the skill level to cope with challenges of aging population, KBE and growing Chinese economy.

9. Education Trends-Table 1 • Table 1. Demography of Education: • Thailand’s child population has been declining, access to education has become easier. • Years of schooling has been rising quickly in Thailand and have attained a relatively high level.

10. Education Trends-Table 2 • Table 2. Gross Enrollment Ratios and Gross Graduation Rates: • Thailand has recently attained relatively high enrollment ratios and graduation rates at the secondary and tertiary levels, particularly among women. • In Thailand vocational track at the upper secondary level has a relatively high share.

11. Competitiveness Indicators-Tab 3 • Table 3. Competitiveness and IT Rank: • Thailand often ranks after Japan, NIEs and Malaysia and before other parts of Asia in competitiveness and IT measures. • But Thailand comes after China in some IT measures possibly due to its relative neglect of science and technology education and IT-related investment.

12. Competitiveness Indicators-Tab 3 • Table 3. Overlap with China in Export: • Thailand has one of the highest percentage of overlap (2/3) with China in export. • Overlap is increasing in Asian countries. • This may be partly due to the largest number of engineering bachelor’s produced in China in recent years.

13. Competitiveness Indicators-Tab 3 • Table 3. Science Education: • Share of science and engineering majors at the tertiary level is low in Thailand. • Mathematics score at TIMSS (8th grade) is also relatively low in Thailand, perhaps due to the low qualification and salary levels of teachers at the secondary level.

14. Competitiveness Indicators-Tab 3 • Table 3. Public Expenditure on Education: • In both Thailand and Malaysia education’s share in public expenditure is relatively large. • In case of Malaysia it may be due to its bumiputeras policy. • Both countries focus on tertiary education.

15. HRD Policy Implications-1 • Thailand has to start making its shrinking labor force more productive by shifting its emphasis from traditional vocational education to science and technology education, particularly IT education to upgrade the skill level of its labor force to reposition itself in KBE.

16. HRD Policy Implications-2 • Thailand should increase the share of engineering and science graduates at the tertiary level. • The qualification and salary of teachers at the primary and secondary levels should be raised to improve student performance in science and mathematics.

17. HRD Policy Implications-3 • IT-related investment in infrastructure and HRD should be improved as rapidly as education. • Thailand should take advantage of cross-national links for HRD, including international cooperation, FDI, international trade, international migration.

18. Broader Policy Implications-1 • The importance of promoting lifelong learning of IT among potential Thai consumers, not to mention producers, particularly because of cultural barriers for IT use.

19. Broader Policy Implications-2 • The importance of IT HRD in regions with different subcultures, particularly the South with its strategic location in ASEAN and with Prince of Songkla University and Southern Industrial Estate in Songkla Province.

20. Broader Policy Implications-3 • IT HRD in partnership with international cooperation agencies and multinational corporations as well as local and international university networks can offer Songkla Province “a cultural window of opportunity” to be an IT industrial center and an export center to the Muslim world.

21. Broader Policy Implications-4 • In the South Phuket with the government’s Digital Paradise Project can also open “a cultural window of opportunity” to Buddhist and Hindu worlds as a production and export center of IT-related products and services.

22. Conclusion • Thailand should gradually shift its emphasis from the best use of a “demographic window of opportunity” to that of “cultural windows of opportunity” as “demographic dividend” dwindles down in the coming knowledge-based economy.