The Politics and Policy of Immigration Reform: 2005-2009

1. The Politics and Policy of Immigration Reform:2005-2009 Political Science 126C / Chicano/Latino Studies 163 Lecture 12 February 19, 2009

2. Reminder: Midterm Exam February 27, 2009

3. My Goals • Analysis and comparison • Synthesize the lectures and the readings • Best accomplished in my estimation through an essay • Reward for careful reading of assigned readings • Best accomplished though identifications

4. Decisions for You • Other formats that will accomplish these goals? • If not, • Balance between sections • Essay question in advance?

5. From Last Time

6. End of 2006 Legislative Session • Neither House nor Senate compromised, so neither bill passed • Both agreed on an enforcement bill • Immigration played a role in a handful of Congressional races • Assumption that 2007-08 session would be more reception to “comprehensive” immigration reform because of Democratic control of both houses of Congress and President Bush’s need for a domestic legacy

7. 2007 Senate BillS. 1348 • Border security and triggers – No legalization until enforcement “triggers” are met • Border patrol doubled to 28,000 • Fence (370 miles built) • Fraud proof id • Legalization – “Z visa” • Fees, fines, taxes, and “touch-back” • Eight to nine year wait for permanent residence • Temporary workers • After triggers, at least 400,000 annually • No path to permanent residence • New basis for immigration to permanent residence

8. So, Expectations for 2007 Not Met • 2007 bill more restrictive • Many more hoops to jump through • Guest worker program without path to legalization • Did not pass the Senate • Filibuster used successfully • Democratic leadership can’t count on support from all Democrats • Small pieces of the bill (DREAM Act) couldn’t overcome filibuster • An immigration bill never debated in the House • No filibuster in House, but House leadership didn’t want to take on a contentious issue if the Senate couldn’t pass • Would have put moderates in both parties in difficult position • President Bush largely irrelevant to the debate, suggesting his weakness as a lame duck with low popularity

9. Looking to Future Debates (Factors Mentioned Earlier) • Rigor of new enforcement provisions (ethnic & populist/political) • Legalization eligibility and requirements (ethnic & populist/political) • Guest worker program and whether it leads to legalization (economic & populist/political, ethnic) • Change to foundations of legal immigration (the “point system”) (economic & demographic) • Shifting coalitions without obvious foundation for compromise

10. Will It be Possible to Develop a Compromise of these Four Issues? • We’ll see among ourselves – our discussions in the last two weeks of classes • At the national level • Resolution will only appear when the status quo is perceived as worse than a new immigration regime • Economic leaders are probably the most important actors • Populist anti-immigration focus will need to shift to another issue • Practical need – some Republican support for “reform” in the Senate and the House • Senate supporters must number 60 to overcome filibuster • Active support from White House • 2006/2007 showed the consequence of leaving resolution to Congress