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NOAA’s Advances in Storm Surge Modeling & Prediction

NOAA’s Advances in Storm Surge Modeling & Prediction. Jason P. Tuell, Ph.D National Weather Service Eastern Region Director North Atlantic Regional Team Team Lead. “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”. HSRP Public Meeting. February 25-26, 2014. Outline.

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NOAA’s Advances in Storm Surge Modeling & Prediction

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  1. NOAA’s Advances in Storm Surge Modeling & Prediction Jason P. Tuell, Ph.D National Weather Service Eastern Region Director North Atlantic Regional Team Team Lead “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods” HSRP Public Meeting February 25-26, 2014

  2. Outline • Sandy Supplemental Augmentation • Storm Surge Forecasting & Enhancements • Near Shore Wave Prediction System • Extra Tropical Storm Surge Advancements • Wave Run Up Studies • Training and Outreach “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  3. Computer Upgrades • Observations • Models • Physical Science Research • Social Science Research • Improved Surge Forecast Sandy SupplementalCongress provides ~$97 million to improve forecast services “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods” Designed to Improve: Response -- Resilience/Recovery -- Preparedness

  4. Sandy Supplemental • Run NWS Global Forecast Systems at higher resolution (13km) out 10 days • High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) • 3 kilometer resolution • Runs every hour • Ensembles: Higher Resolutions • Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (going from 55km to 35 km) • Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) (going from 16 km to 12 km) • Hurricane Models (to be run at 3km) • Accelerate Storm Surge Modeling for NY, NJ, and New England “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  5. NOAA’s Model Production Suite 5

  6. Benefits of Sandy Supplemental • Enables Storm Surge Modeling Upgrades • P-Surge, ETSS, ESTOF(s) • New Ensemble Models-Probabilistic ETSS • Nearshore Wave Prediction System • Accelerates Flood Inundation Graphics • Enables New Tropical Training & Outreach • Storm Surge Training: Internal & External • Tropical Professional Development Series • Effective Tropical Messaging Training • Effective Outreach Videos & Fact Sheets “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  7. P-Surge – Probabilistic Approach Probabilistic approach using P-Surge system based on SLOSH Total water depth from P-Surge surge levels (20% exceeedance) and ESTOFS tides Forecast guidance produced using NWPS (SWAN) 7

  8. Probabilistic Storm Surge with Tide

  9. Potential Storm Surge Flood Maps “Storm Surge is often the greatest threat to lives & property from hurricane”

  10. Nearshore Wave Prediction System • WAVEWATCH III • SWAN • RTOFS • ESTOFS

  11. Extra-Tropical Future Work • In addition to advances in tropical surge forecasting, NOAA continues its work enhancing extra tropical storm surge forecasting. • ESTOFS • Ensemble system • ETSS 2.0 overland • PETSS

  12. Wave Run-Up Initiative: 1st tested during “Sandy” Hampton Beach, New Hampshire, October 2012 Correctly forecasted erosion and overwash Nearshore Waves ~ 31 ft

  13. Training and Outreach • Coastal Storm Awareness Program (CSAP) • Develop comprehensive training program for NWS Partners on strengths & weaknesses of P-surge vs SLOSH MEOWS & single track SLOSH runs • Interactive distance learning module for External Partners in FY14 • Tropical Professional Development Series (PDS) addresses performance gaps related to tropical cyclone operations

  14. Clarifying Water Levels & Datums NOS working with NHC to alleviate confusion regarding tidal datums • Inundation occurs when storm tide levels reach normally dry ground, and NHC forecasts describe flooding above ground • Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) is being used to approximate where inundation could begin • Storm Quicklook and NOS web services include water level data relative to MHHW • http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/datum_options.html

  15. Summary • Sandy Supplemental enabling NOAA to make significant improvements is surge forecasting • NOAA team effort combining OAR research, NOS and NWS data and models • Inundation forecasts coming soon • Integrated tropical and extra-tropical surge forecasts longer term goal

  16. Additional Slides “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  17. Sandy Supplemental NOAA Operational Computing Capacity “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  18. GFS Evolution To 2018

  19. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 7B

  20. GEFS Evolution To 2018

  21. Mesoscale

  22. Storm Surge Watch/Warning • Developing a collaborative process between NHC & WFO(s) to begin issuing experimental tropical cyclone storm surge watches & warnings in 2015 • Future work: Expand to include extra-tropical storms “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  23. New Outreach Fact Sheets

  24. 28B

  25. Weather-Ready Nation: Hurricanes • Credits: • Jim Edds – extremestorms.com • NOAA National Ocean Service • NOAA National Weather Service • NOAA Coastal Services Center • NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  26. Clarifying Water Levels & Datum

  27. Weather-Ready Nation Strategic Goals Strategic Outcome: Weather-Ready Nation • Ready • Responsive • Resilient NWS Strategic Goals • Improve Weather Decisions Services • Improve Water Forecasting Services • Enhance climate services and adapt climate-related risks • Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity • Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems • Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce equipped with training, tools, & infrastructure to meet mission Prediction is what makes us unique!

  28. A Weather-Ready Nation Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. • Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) • Better understanding of societal impacts through social sciences • Making our information more relevant to decision makers • Participating directly in decision making “Working to achieve far-reaching national preparedness for weather events

  29. P-Surge 2.0 Enhancements • Apply most recent SLOSH basins • Advantage: More accurate storm surge using modern vertical datum (NAVD-88) • Impact: Slower run times due to higher resolution • Above ground level as well as above datum • Advantage: Enhanced communication as general users do not understand datums • Impact: More files to process “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  30. P-Surge 2.0 Enhancements • SLOSH + Tide • Each ensemble member defines time allowing addition of a gridded tide • Advantage: More accurate overland inundation • Impact: More along track error samples (from 3 to 7) • Time component • Create (13) 6-hour cumulative & (13) 6-hour incremental probability products rather than (1) 80-hour cumulative probability product • Advantage: Provides timing guidance • Impact: Larger and more numerous files to process “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  31. Wave Run-Up Approach A North Atlantic Regional Collaboration Team (NART) Project! • Goal: Establish test sites in coastal “hotspots” • Evaluate performance of Stockdon wave run up equations • Hotspots are vulnerable locations with complex bathymetry and topography • Ground surveys preferred over LIDAR • Pristine Dune Systems and Non-Pristine Areas surveyed • Seawalls, rocky shorelines, man-made dune systems, etc

  32. Extra-Tropical Future Work • Extend Extra-Tropical Surge & Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) in FY14 to: • Coastal Pacific, Hawaii, Gulf of Alaska • Improve resolution to ~ 500 m • Develop 5 to 10 members ESTOFS based ensemble storm surge system for: • East Coast, Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  33. Extra-Tropical Future Work • ETSS-2.0 (Overland with Tides) • Nest with SLOSH’s finer (< 500m) overland grids • Use ½ degree or better GFS model output for forcing • New Alaska Bering Sea / Nome Basin • Probabilistic Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (PETSS) • Forcing via 21 GFS ensemble members (scalable to include other ensemble model’s members) • Redesign processing used for www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge • Allow greater flexibility for adding stations • Output SHEF encoded messages “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  34. Training and Outreach “Weather-Ready Nation: Saving Lives and Livelihoods”

  35. Coastal Storm Awareness Program (CSAP) • Joint NOAA/Sea Grant (NJ-NY-CT) • $1.8M Grant Program • Social Science Research • Related technology transfer • Objective: better understand coastal storm hazards warning system • Goal: better inform people so they remove themselves from harm • 10 social science research projects were awarded

  36. New Tropical Training - External Develop comprehensive training program for NWS Partners on strengths & weaknesses of P-surge vs SLOSH MEOWS & single track SLOSH runs. Interactive distance learning module for External Partners will be developed in FY14

  37. New Tropical Training - Internal

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