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A Regional Approach to Fiber Supply Analysis

Tartan Forest Management Services LLC Craig Campbell Delphi Advisors LLC Tom Montzka Mike Huebschmann NW GIS User Group Conference – October 2011. A Regional Approach to Fiber Supply Analysis. MS Forestry degrees in Operations, Management, Remote Sensing & Biometrics

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A Regional Approach to Fiber Supply Analysis

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  1. Tartan Forest Management Services LLC Craig Campbell Delphi Advisors LLC Tom Montzka Mike Huebschmann NW GIS User Group Conference – October 2011 A Regional Approach to Fiber Supply Analysis

  2. MS Forestry degrees in Operations, Management, Remote Sensing & Biometrics Phd in Agricultural Economics 62 years of Industrial Forestry experience 18 years of Private Consulting experience Forest Acquisition/Divestiture, Inventory, Planning, Analysis and GIS projects in the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Southeast, Gulf South and Canada Team EXPERIENCE

  3. ArcGIS 10.0 Desktop Advanced, Spatial Analyst Statistical Models RATS, Crystal Ball Databases and Development Tools MS Office Professional, MS SQL Server Inventory Models Forest Projection System (FPS) Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) LP Models FORPLAN, What’s Best, C-WHIZ Software

  4. Time is Money

  5. Location, Location, Location

  6. TREE SPECIES – Flexible or Specific TIMBER SIZE – Usually Limited CHIPS – Clean or In-Woods BIOMASS – Need Varies by Facility VOLUME – Annual and/or Seasonal QUALITY SPECIFIATIONS – Defect, Sweep, Length, Diameter, Moisture, Age PRICING – Absolute and in What Units of Measure What does the mill require?

  7. STATE – Regulations COUNTY – Regulations and Roading OWNERSHIP – Objectives COMPETITORS – Success Rate COST DISTANCE – Transportation ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE – Access and Cost WATERSHED / RIPARIAN – Restricted Access TERRAIN – Elevation, Slope and Aspect WHERE IS IT LOCATED?

  8. STUMPAGE – Payment to the Timber Owner EQUIPMENT – Terrain and Timber Value LABOR COSTS – Cost per Unit Timber FUEL COSTS – Dollars/Gallon Diesel FUEL EFFICIENCY – Miles/Gallon Loaded FUEL ADD-ONS – Adjustments per Ton/Mile HAUL ADJUSTMENTS – Turns per Day, Back-Haul STUMP TO TRUCK – Truck TO MILL

  9. MILL CAPACITY – Related to Cost and Efficiency RECOVERY RATE – Unit Product per Unit Log/Fiber SHIFT LOGIC – Shifts Actual or Imputed PRODUCTION – Units Produced PRICING – FOB Mill Prices per Unit BY-PRODUCTS – Chemicals, Steam, Power, Residuals THROUGH THE MILL

  10. DISTANCE TO RESOURCE MODELING HOW FAR CAN THE MILL AFFORD TO BUY FIBER BASED ON ITS PRODUCTS AND COST STRUCTURES?

  11. Now a word from our economists… Mill X removes 705 M Tons @ $43.65 / ton

  12. COMPETITOR PRESENCE HOW MANY MILL COMPETITORS CAN ACCESS THE FIBER SUPPLY FOR ANY GIVEN MILL?

  13. COMPETITOR INTENSITY A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF ALL COMPETITORS IN THE WOODBASKET MORE ACCRUATELY DEPICTS PRESSURE ON FIBER RESOURCES.

  14. COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE THIS BENEFITS MILL PROCUREMENT STRATEGY BY UNDERSTANDING WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT THEY HAVE A PRICING ADVANTAGE.

  15. REVIEWING CAPITAL PROGRAMS REVIEWING PROCUREMENT STRATEGY REVIEWING LAND SALES & ACQUISTIONS REVIEWING REALESTATE PROGRAMS REVIEWING MILL SALES & ACQUISITIONS UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL MARGINAL COSTS LOBBYING FOR PUBLIC TIMBER SUPPLY UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS FROM REGUALTION STRATEGIC PROJECTS

  16. GREATER DETAIL REQUIRED FOR FOREST INVENTORY, HARVESTING, TRANSPORTATION, MILL PRODUCTION, PRODUCT PRICES and MILL COST STRUCTURES. CAPITAL BUDGETING AND PROJECT JUSTIFICATION WOODSHED INVENTORY ANALYSIS PROCUREMENT PLANS AND BUDGETS HARVEST PLANS SILVICULTURAL PLANS LANDOWNER PROGRAMS TACTICAL PROJECTS

  17. DATA, TIME and DOLLAR INTENSIVE BROAD UNDERSTANDING OF - FOREST MANAGEMENT and PLANNING - FOREST INVENTORY and GROWTH & YIELD - HARVESTING SYSTEMS and TRANSPORT - SOLID WOOD and PAPER MILL PROCESSES - SOLID WOOD and PAPER PRODUCT MARKETS - GIS TOOLS and ANALYSIS - DATABASE MANAGEMENT - LP, RISK and HEURISTIC MODELING PROJECT MANAGEMENT GOOD CUSTOMER SERVICE /COMMUNICATION SUMMARY

  18. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME! QUESTIONS

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