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Plans for updated Arctic ship emission inventories and projections

Plans for updated Arctic ship emission inventories and projections. Outline of presentation. Introduction Project aims Emission inventory Basis scenarios Further emission reduction scenarios. Introduction. Navigation is one of the most important local emission sources in the Arctic

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Plans for updated Arctic ship emission inventories and projections

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  1. Plans for updated Arctic ship emission inventories and projections

  2. Outline of presentation • Introduction • Project aims • Emission inventory • Basis scenarios • Further emission reduction scenarios

  3. Introduction • Navigation is one of the most important local emission sources in the Arctic • Emissions are being injected directly into the Arctic environment at low (chimney) heights • Black carbon (BC) emissions are of particular interest • It has the capability to absorb light over reflective areas (e.g. snow, ice) • It has a darkening effect when deposited on snow and ice

  4. Introduction • Emissions from ships in the Arctic was investigated in an earlier MST project • Emission inventories and emission dispersion calculations were made for the basis year 2012 • A forecast was produced until 2050 in a BAU og High Growth Scenario based on IMO’s 2nd GHG study and Corbett et al. (2010) • Results formed an important Danish input to AMAP • Since then there has been a growing need to model the impact of further emission reduction scenarios

  5. Project aims • Estimate the emissions from ships in the Arctic 2012-2016; monitoring the emission development in a 5-year period • To calculate an updated emission prognosis until 2050 based on the new consolidated 5-year basis • To include further emission reduction scenarios • Fuel, green house gases, BC, SO2, NOx, PM etc.

  6. Emission inventory • Activity data for ships • Power demand, and engine work produced • Fuel and emission factors • Calculation of fuel and emissions • Traffic projections: BAU and High growth (HiG)

  7. Activity data for ships • Traffic data from the Danish Maritime Administration (DMA) based on satellite sampled AIS data and terrestrial base stations • AIS (Automatic Information System): Transponder signals from ships with information about identity and position • Inventory area: North of 58.95N • Grid cell resolution: 0.5o x 0.225o long-lat • 14 ship types, 16 ship length intervals • Average sailing speed and sailing distance per month in 2012-2016

  8. Power demand, P (kW) • Basis power functions (kW) per ship type from DTU • Propulsion: Function of ship length and sailing speed • Auxiliary engines included • Future ship energy efficiencies included cf. EEDI (Energy Efficiency Design Index) regulation for new built ships from 2013 “The EEDI is a design index, primarily applicable to new ships, that has been developed by the IMO and is to be used as a tool for control of CO2 emissions from ships. The IMO aims to improve the energy efficiency of ships via mandatory implementation of the EEDI.”

  9. Engine work produced (kWh) W = Engine work produced in kWh S = ship type f = fuel type k = engine type l = ship length (LPP) interval P = Power demand (kW) D = Distance (NM) V = Vessel average speed (knots) EEDIf = Energy Efficiency Design Index factor

  10. Fuel factors (g/kWh) • Sfc data (g/kWh) from DTU and MAN Diesel & Turbo • Vessel type x Engine type x Engine life time relation in the model

  11. Fuel sulfur percentages • SECA (Sulfur emission control area): North SEA/Baltic Sea; 0.1 % from 2015 • Non-SECA 0.5 % sulfur: 2020/2025 (depending on global availability of fuel) • MGO/MDO: 0.1 %; LNG: 0 % • World wide today: IMO sulphur monitoring program

  12. Emission factors for BC – depending on sulfur and engine load • Derived from a comprehensive review study (Lack and Corbett, 2012) • Data are still being assessed, though: Fuel dependency might be smaller than shown! Lack, D. A., Lerner, B., Granier, C., Baynard, T., Lovejoy, E. R., Massoli, P., Ravishankara, A. R., and Williams, E.: Light absorbing carbon emissions from commercial shipping, Geophys. 25 Res. Lett., 35, L13815, doi:10.1029/2008GL033906, 2008b. G. M. Buffaloe, D. A. Lack, E. J. Williams, D. Coffman, K. L. Hayden, B. M. Lerner, S.-M. Li, I. Nuaaman, P. Massoli, T. B. Onasch, P. K. Quinn, and C. D. Cappa (2014): Black carbon emissions from in-use ships: a California regional assessment, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1881–1896, 2014, doi:10.5194/acp-14-1881-2014. Lack, D., Corbett, J.J., 2012: Black carbon from ships: a review of the effects of ship speed, fuel quality and exhaust gas scrubbing, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 3509–3554, 2012, doi:10.5194/acpd-12-3509-2012. Lack 2016: E-mail korrespondance and data provided by Daniel Lack, 2016.

  13. Calculation of fuel and emissions E = Fuel or emission (g) W = Engine work produced (kWh) EF = Fuel or emission factor (g/kWh)

  14. Traffic forecast • Corbett et al. 2010 Arctic traffic projections based on scenario model behind IMO’s 2nd GHG study • Business as usual (BAU) traffic • High Growth (HiG) traffic

  15. 1Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9689–9704 • Apart from BAU and HiG projections, scenario results with traffic diversion along polar routes1, due to less arctic sea ice in the future • Two different shares of Suez/Panama traffic using polar routes instead

  16. The basis scenarios include: • Historical ship traffic data projected into BAU og HiG growth scenarios • Todays SECA areas (North Sea/Baltic Sea) • Todays North American NECA (from 2016) • North Sea/Baltic Sea NECA from 2021 (assumptions) • Todays legislation on fuel sulfur content • globally (today = 2.45 %; 2020/2025 limit = 0.5 % • SECA limit = 0.1 %

  17. Further emission reduction scenarios • 1. Ban of heavy fuel oil in the Arctic; all vessels are assumed to be using MGO/MDO • 2. SECA in the Arctic; certain shares of ships using MGO/MDO, SOx scrubber technology and LNG • Technology shares: IMO 3rd GHG study • Sensitivity analysis: ”Low case/high case LNG”

  18. Thank you for your attention!

  19. IMO’s 3rd GHG rapport – nye elementer • SFOC (g/kWh) afhængig af motor load • Opdaterede PM emissionsfaktorer • Emissionsfaktorer for LNG (dog ikke BC) • Low/high case split mellem LNG, MGO/LSHFO og HFO + scrubber

  20. Emissionsfaktorer (g/kWh) • NOx (g/kWh) fra MAN Diesel & Turbo

  21. Yderligere emissionsreducerende scenarier • Indførelse af SECA i Arktis; en vis andel skibe bruger MGO/MDO, scrubber og LNG • Følsomhedsanalyser over teknologifordelingen • Low case/high case LNG (IMO 3rd GHG)? • Vi har brug for at tillempe % andelene til vores område; vi har som udgangspunkt meget diesel

  22. Status for arbejde i projektet • Trafikdata indhentet t.o.m. juni 2016 • Nye scenarier fastlagt • Emissionsdata indhentet for BC • Trafikprognose fastlagt

  23. Videre arbejde i projektet • Generere resterende trafikdata • 2016 data klar i januar 2017 • Emissionsopgørelsen • Implementere trafikdata • Implementere BC funktioner + SFOC + PM • Teknologisplit for scenarie 2 (evt. IMO 3rd GHG case?) • Indhente emissionsdata for LNG, scrubber

  24. Videre arbejde i projektet • Spredningsberegninger • Tegning af GIS kort • Analyse af resultater • Rapportskrivning

  25. IMO 3rd GHG rapport • IMO’s 3rd GHG rapport er ikke gearet til vores brug: • 4 hovedscenarier der alle betragtes som lige sandsynlige • Fremskrivningsvariable passer ikke i vores modelformat • Nogle få overordnede skibstyper • Fremskrivning af ton km • Udvikling af skibsstørrelser • IMO 2nd CO2 udvikling ligger i den øvre ende af IMO 3rd frem til 2050, men ”stikker ikke af”.

  26. Ship engine power – fishing vessels • Fixed engine load factor (60 %) for fishing vessels, due to unprecise power-speed relation (COWI Tromsø, 2013) • The sailing speeds (and hence sailing distances) are generally low during direct fishing. However, low sailing speeds do not automatically imply low engine loads for fishing ships. • Additional engine power is needed (which increases fuel consumption), either due to the nature of the fishing work (e.g. trawl fishing) or due to the power needed for the processing and packing of the fish catch at sea.

  27. The BC emissions from total navigation areshown on the upper figure • The fishing activities and hence emissions (lower figure) are to a large extent coastal specific. The emissions are highest along the Norwegian coast, around the Faroe and Shetland Islands and around Iceland

  28. Fishing ships (45 %) is the largest emission source in 2012, followed by passenger ships, tankers, general cargo and container ships. • The estimate for fishing ships is the most uncertain, due to less certain power-speed relation. • It is however a big step forward; other inventories (e.g. Corbett et al.) are not gridded, and activity data are coarse estimates for the entire arctic area.

  29. The total emissions of BC increase by 2 %, 4 % and 16 % in 2020, 2030 and 2050 • Explained by traffic increase, sfc reductions and ship energy efficiency (EEDI) improvements • The decreasing emissions from fishing ships is a result of constant fishing activities assumed in the forecast years, and lower specific fuel consumption for the engines installed.

  30. 1Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9689–9704 • Scenarios based on Corbett1 with traffic diversion along polar routes due to less arctic sea ice in the future • Our BAU scenario: 90 % more BC (and fuel) in the arctic area in 2050 due to polar traffic • HiG scenario: 650 % more BC (and fuel) in the arctic area in 2050 due to polar traffic

  31. Emissions from ships in the Arctic 2012-2016 and updated emission projections

  32. BC depositions with 2012 emissions Additional contribution to BC deposition in % due to 2012 Arctic ships emissions Total deposition without 2012 Arctic ships emissions

  33. BC depositions with 2050 emissions Additional contribution to BC deposition in % due to our 2050 Arctic ships emissions Additional contribution to BC deposition in % due to Corbetts 2050 High Grow Arctic ships emissions

  34. Summer Ozone concentrations with 2012 emissions Additional contribution to Ozone concentration in % due to 2012 Arctic ships emissions Ozoneconcentration without 2012 Arctic ships emissions

  35. Summer Ozone concentrations with 2050 emissions Additional contribution to Ozone concentration in % due to our 2050 Arctic ships emissions Additional contribution to Ozone concentration in % due to Corbetts 2050 High Grow Arctic ships emissions

  36. Thank you for your attention!

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