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October 15, 2012

Adapting Inclusionary Zoning to a Changing Housing Market. Our Region’s Housing Market: What are price trends likely to be over the next 5 years?. Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University. October 15, 2012.

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October 15, 2012

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  1. Adapting Inclusionary Zoning to a Changing Housing Market Our Region’s Housing Market: What are price trends likely to be over the next 5 years? Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University October 15, 2012

  2. The Washington Economy

  3. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  4. Job Change by SectorAug 2011 – Aug 2012Washington MSA Total = 38,200 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  5. Unemployment Rate 8.8 – DC 8.1 – U.S. 6.0 – SMD 5.5 – MSA 4.3 - NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  6. The Washington Area Housing Market

  7. Sources: ACS 2010 1-yr Estimate, HUD SOCDS, Census.

  8. +74% Source: HUD SOCDS, Census, Bureau of Labor & Statistics

  9. Sources: ACS 2010 1-yr Estimate, HUD SOCDS, Census

  10. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-Year2000 – 2012, MSA Aug = - 22.4% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  11. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  12. Home Prices as a Percent of PeakSeptember 2012Selected Jurisdictions Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, RBIntel

  13. Renters Paying 30% or Moreof Their Income on Rent2008-2010Selected Jurisdictions Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, US Census Bureau ACS 2008-2010 Estimates

  14. Washington MSA Building Permits 2000 – 2012, 3-Month MvgAvg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  15. Housing Market Outlook

  16. Employment-Drive Housing Demand2010-2020 Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Note: Assumes all workers are housed in the jurisdiction in which they work. The low estimates assume that new jobs have the same in-commuting rates as current jobs. Detailed study results available at cra.gmu.edu.

  17. Comparing Prices of Current and Forecasted Units Owner-Occupied Units Washington Region Source: 2011 Sales, MRIS Note: assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work

  18. Comparing Rents of Current and Forecasted Units Renter-Occupied Units Washington Region Source: 2009 ACS Note: assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work

  19. Outlook for the Region’s Housing Market • Regional housing market has been recovering; sales activity and prices may soften in the near-term. • Rents may not grow as fast and vacancy rates may increase in the near-term. • Job growth over the next five years will put upward pressure on home prices, particularly in areas close to transportation/transit and employment centers. • There is a need for more multi-family housing and smaller, more affordable owner and renter homes in the region. • A lack of a sufficient supply of housing contributes to worsening traffic and quality of life and threatens our region’s economic vitality.

  20. GMU Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu

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