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INTER-MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

INTER-MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE ON CLIMATE CHANGE. Corintia Atlantic Hotel Banjul, The Gambia 29-30 January, 2009. William Kojo Agyemang Bonsu. OVERVIEW OF THE BALI ROAD MAP. Climate Change Convention initially focused on mitigation (1992). Convention objective . Allow ecosystems to

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INTER-MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

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  1. INTER-MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE ON CLIMATE CHANGE Corintia Atlantic Hotel Banjul, The Gambia 29-30 January, 2009

  2. William Kojo Agyemang Bonsu • OVERVIEW OF THE BALI ROAD MAP

  3. Climate Change Convention initially focused on mitigation (1992) Convention objective • Allow ecosystems to • adapt naturally • to climate change; • Ensure food production • is not threatened; and • Enable economic development to • proceed sustainably Achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic Interference” with the climate system within timeframe sufficient to No Binding Targets: UNFCCC signed by 191 Parties

  4. The Convention clusters countries in three groups “Common, but differentiated responsibilities” Annex II Non-Annex I • Industrialised countries • Provide financial • resources to enable • developing countries to • meet the costs of • implementing measures • Promote technology • transfer to EITs and non-Annex I Parties • Developing countries • No quantitative obligations • Least Developed Countries given special consideration Annex I • Industrialised countries & Economies in Transition (EITs) • Adopt policies • and measures with • aim of reducing GHG • emissions to 1990 • levels • EITs have “flexibility” • in commitments

  5. Bali Road Map - Breakthrough • Shared understanding for the necessity of common efforts, both by developed and developing countries • Climate change linked to economic growth and sustainable development goals and needs – recognition action fall across a variety of economic sectors • Deadline for negotiations by 2009: to ensure entry into force of future regime by 2012

  6. Bali Road Map – two tracks Kyoto Protocol “track” (launched in 2005) • Agree on developed countries emission reduction targets by 2009 • For 450 ppm CO2-eq, GHG emissions would need to be reduced for about 25 to 40 % by 2020 • Means to achieve targets: mechanisms (CDM, JI, ET), national policies, accounting issues, role of LULUCF, etc. Convention “track” (launched in 2007) • Focuses on four “building blocks”: adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer & deployment, financing • Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) also discussed • Mitigation actions from developing countries • Mitigation commitments from developed countries

  7. Transition from UNFCCC……… Global Action Sustainable Development Objectives Finance Mitigation Adaptation Technology Building Blocks Mitigation Adaptation

  8. The Road to Copenhagen (COP-15): Progress in 2008 First session, Bangkok, 31 March-4 April 2008 • Convention: Work programme and workshops for 2008 • KP: Flexible mechanisms should continue as means to meet targets and could be appropriately improved Second session, Bonn, 2-12 June 2008 • Convention: Initial substantive discussions of building blocks • KP: compilation of views on means of implementation (LULUCF, CDM, JI and ET) Third session, Accra, 21-27 August 2008 • Work programme for 2009. • Parties started submitting textual proposals on building blocks • KP: options for means to achieve and criteria to define targets Fourth session, Poznan, 1-12 December 2008

  9. Half-way to Copenhagen: outcomes of Poznan Convention track: • Assembly of ideas and proposals by the Chair • Work programme for 2009 adopted • Mandate to the Chair to issue options paper for an outcome in February and a draft negotiating text by June • Proposals on shared vision and building blocks and long-term targets KP track: • Workprogramme for 2009 adopted • Targets post-2012 to principally take the form of quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives Other outcomes: • 2nd review of the KP under Article 9 fails over share of proceeds • Adaptation Fund finalized: ready to receive projects in 2009 • GEF “Poznan Strategic Programme on Technology Transfer” • CDM governance reform

  10. Way ahead in 2009 • 2009 key for defining key features and crunch issues • Next session 30 March-8 April: • Start negotiations on options for an agreed outcome • Emission reductions by Annex I Parties in aggregate • A number of submissions invited • Second session on 1–12 June: • Draft negotiating text in the Convention • Individual and joint contributions by Annex I Parties • pick up on CDM reform • Third session August/September • Fourth session 30 November-11 December in Copenhagen

  11. UNFCCC negotiation structure • Negotiators/Ministers • Conference of the Parties • Subsidiary Bodies (SBSTA, SBI, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA) • Expert bodies / Special bodies (Bureau, Adaptation Fund Board, CDM Board, EGTT, LEG, etc.) • Contact groups / Informal meetings / friends of Chair (negotiating texts) • Constituencies (G77 and China, LDCs, Regional Groups, EU, Umbrella, etc..) • Other means: submissions, workshops

  12. LAND USE, LAND-USE CHANGE & FORESTRY Madeleine Diouf-Sarr, Senegal

  13. What we know Land-use sector, including forestry and agriculture, is important source of GHG emissions 20%-30% of total emission Can play key role in climate change mitigation Emerging as important issue in post-2012 regime discussions

  14. Evolution of international negotiations • Key sector for developed countries because of mitigation potential • Contentious because of high uncertainties • Developing countries focused mainly on GHG inventories (issues of data, resources, capacity) • Major step in Marrakesh (2001) under Kyoto Protocol: Afforestation & reforestation included in CDM • Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest Degradation (REDD) becomes Convention topic

  15. Lessons from CDM The Marrakesh Accords limit eligible LULUCF activities in the CDM to afforestation and reforestation (A/R) for the first commitment period. Activities in bioenergy are also eligible until 2012. Parties have to provide definition of forest that they would adopt at the national level Rules and procedures that govern A/R CDM for the first commitment period were only finally decided in 2004. A/R CDM has stimulated new interest for planting trees, especially in seriously degraded areas. This can be indeed a new opportunity for the forest sector, as it can open the possibility to promote long-term activities such as restoration of forestland or tree plantations, particularly through the promotion of community forestry, which could have an important developmental impact in rural areas. 14

  16. Difficulties noted Complexity in the design of the project (carbon Accounting system, leakage, issues on non permanency, legal requirements in respect to property rights on land and the transaction costs involved in project preparation). Lack of accurate information in many developing countries; General sense of low governance in the forest sector, especially in developing countries; 15

  17. Key issues under the Bali Action Plan • Four key mitigation options identified for developing countries: • REDD (reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) • Sustainable forest management • Forest restoration (carbon sequestration) • Afforestation & reforestation (carbon sequestration) • Developing countries want: • Financial incentives (new & additional) • Wider set of eligible activities

  18. Mitigation measures from Gambia The Gambian Forest Management Concept (GFMC)” is not to increase the forest in terms of area but improve the forest cover and heavily undertake agroforestry and energy saving (development of bioenergy) (case example for CDM). The new policy (2006 - 2016) aims at maintaining at least 30% of the total land area under forest cover and to manage at least 75% of this area. (REDD national approach ). 17

  19. BALI ACTION PLAN BUILDING BLOCK ADAPTATION Madeleine Diouf-Sarr, Senegal

  20. What we know Adaptation: Process of sustainable and permanent adjustment to changing circumstances • Closely linked to development • Needs to converge with disaster risk reduction activities • Impact assessments dominated by uncertainties & complex interactions • Will require substantial funding ($ tens of billions)

  21. Key challenges in adaptation • Hard to define: very broad, far-reaching in scope • Will require adjustments across every aspect of society, environment & economy • Not stand-alone issue: linked to economic development, poverty reduction, disaster management • Requires capacity for short- and long-term planning • Adequate institutional arrangements (systematic planning, co-operation, and regulatory frameworks)

  22. Evolution of international negotiations • Initial focus of negotiations from 1995 was mitigation • Adaptation identified as issue at COP-7 in 2001 (Marrakesh Accords) • Identified 14 adaptation activities needing support • Created NAPA process and LDC Expert Group (LEG) • LDC Fund, Special Climate Change Fund, Adaptation Fund • COP 10 to 12 (2004 to 2006) • Buenos Aires Programme of Action on Adaptation and Response Measures • Nairobi Work Programme • Implementation measures on methods, activities, technology transfer and financing

  23. Key issues under the Bali Action Plan Four discussion topics identified: • National planning for adaptation • Streamlining and scaling up financial & technological support • Enhanced knowledge sharing • Institutional frameworks for adaptation Key challenges • Current level of funding • Experience of developing countries in accessing funds • Need for additional financial flows in future

  24. BALI ACTION PLAN BUILDING BLOCK MITIGATION Madaka Tumbo, Tanzania

  25. What we know • Mitigation: Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or enhancement of “sinks” • Human activity is contributing to climate change and all sectors will be impacted • ALL countries must reduce emissions to avoid worst damages • Developed countries by 0 to -25% to -25 to -40% in 2020 • Developing countries “substantially” deviate from baseline (-15-30% suggested for major economies in Poznan) • Significant technological progress made, but annual investment of $200-210 billion needed by 2030 • Forests and land use will be part of the solution

  26. Key issues under the Bali Action Plan • Bali Action Plan calls on developing countries to identify mitigation actions that are: • Measurable • Reportable • Verifiable (MRV) • MRV implies support for technology, finance, and capacity building for developing countries • Developed countries must make commitments and action • International agreement will be major challenge

  27. Key challenges under the Bali Action Plan Mitigation is highly contentious issue in negotiations, in danger of remaining blocked • At issue: • “Common but differentiated responsibilities” • Outcome differs depending on: which GHGs, which sources, time frame, scale (national vs per capita emissions) • Comparability: how tobring Convention and Kyoto Protocol tracks together • G77 & China want all developed countries to take on commitments • US must come to the table • How to match mitigation actions by developing countries with support from developing countries

  28. Proposals on table in the negotiations • Evolution of Clean Development Mechanism • Sustainble development policies & measures (SD-PAMs) • Sectoral approaches • Kyoto-style fixed targets • Per capita • Brazilian proposal • Emissions intensity • Global Triptych • Proposal on MRV by South Africa in Poznan (pooling action pledges and support) potential for compromise National context

  29. Proposals on table in the negotiations Evolution of Clean Development Mechanism • Evolving beyond a strict project basis to programmatic CDM • Various options: expansion of the “programmatic” CDM, policy CDM, new eligible activities in the CDM, sectoral benchmarks, etc. • Possible expansion of use of the CDM to support larger sectoral mitigation action, suggesting a scaling up to particular national sectors, e.g. power • Depends on the demand for credits!

  30. Proposals on table in the negotiations Sustainable development policies & measures (SD-PAMs) • Setting mitigation goals as part of sustainable development goals (e.g. to electrify rural area in country by 2030 using renewable energy) • Financing mechanisms for these goals can vary (CDM, financial mechanism, etc…) • Option can be implemented based on existing provisions in the Convention and KP (Convention Article 4.1 (b) and Kyoto Protocol Article 10)

  31. Proposals on table in the negotiations Sectoral approaches • Setting mitigation goals for a specific economic sector within a time frame • Different perspectives: national sectors, global sectors – different implications • Different optionsfor goals: goals linked to other mechanisms (i.e. programmatic CDM, SD PAMs), loose targets, fix targets • Different options for financing depending: crediting for achievement of targets (through CDM or new market based mechanism or incentives such as financial support and technology transfer)

  32. Examples of mitigation options • Common policies in developing countries include: • Regulations and standards, e.g., mandates for biofuel, renewable energy policies • Financial incentives, e.g., subsidies for energy-efficient lighting • Research & development, e.g., improving energy-efficient stoves in Senegal and promoting dissemination • Information instruments, e.g., energy efficiency labelling programmes and consumer awareness programmes

  33. BALI ACTION PLAN BUILDING BLOCK FINANCING Bhujang Dharmaji, UNDP

  34. What we know Mitigation measures will require additional I&F flows of $200-210 billion in 2030 Adaptation measures will require additional I&F flows in 2030 of several tens of billion $ • Amounts are large in absolute terms, but small relative to global GDP and investment • Private sector dominates investments: corporations (60%); households (24%); government (14%)

  35. Evolution of international negotiations Finance sources under the Convention and Kyoto Protocol GEF Trust Fund Mitigation, Adaptation Mitigation: $3.3 bil. (1991-2010) Adaptation: $50 mil. (-2010) Special Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation, $74 mil. (- March 2008) Fund (SCCF) Technology cooperation Least Developed Adaptation $173 mil. pledged (-March 2008) Countries Fund (LDCF) Adaptation Fund Adaptation ~ $80-300 mil. p.a. (-2012) Clean Development Mitigation Estimated revenue Mechanism (as per 2008): $7 bil. p.a

  36. Key issues under the Bali Action Plan • Improved access to adequate, predictable & sustainable financial resources • New and additional funding • Positive incentives to implement mitigation & adaptation actions • Innovative funding means to meet adaptation costs • Mobilisation of public and private sector funding • Financial and technical support for capacity building

  37. Financing options Increasing the Scale of Existing Mechanisms CDM and Other Possible Crediting Mechanisms: $25 Adaptation Fund: $0.5-2 Contributions from Developed Countries Financial Commitments Mechanism under the Convention: $130-260 Contributions from Developed and Developing Countries World Climate Change Fund: $10 Multilateral Adaptation Fund: $18 More Stringent Commitments by Developed Countries Auction of Assigned Amount Units: $5(in billion $) For more information, refer to paper “Negotiations on additional investment and financial flows to address climate change in developing countries”, table 6

  38. Proposals by Parties on Finance and Investment • Generating funding • Criteria and indicators for provision of finance/ contributions • The level of contribution/specific tragets • Sources of funding • Positive incentives for developing countries • For mitigation • REDD • Adaptation • Technology • Disbursement of and access to funding • Innovative funding for adaptation • Institutional arrangements for finance and investment

  39. BALI ACTION PLAN BUILDING BLOCK • TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT & TRANSFER • William Kojo Agyemang-Bonsu, Ghana

  40. What we know Stages of technology options: Research, development and demonstration / deployment / transfer • Investments in clean energy are growing fast, including new financial products and markets • Substantial financing gap for the required scaling up • Private sector incentives must be reinforced • Most favoured technologies in recent years: wind, solar, biofuels (renewables increasingly relevant) • Carbon markets (including CDM) can play important role for developing countries • Smaller and lower-income countries still to see benefits

  41. Evolution of international negotiations • Developed countries required to support transfer of technologies to developing countries • Environmentally sound-technologies • Suited to local conditions • Dissemination of technology information & networking • Strengthened research and capacity building • Identified as key modality for mitigation and adaptation: gaining momentum in negotiations • Kyoto Protocol: also emphasises need for financial resources, CDM

  42. Key issues under the Bali Action Plan • Removal of barriers to promoting technology transfer including: • Financing • Intellectual property rights • Tariffs and non-tariffs • Capacity • Ways to accelerate deployment, diffusion and transfer of technologies • Co-operation on research and development • Effectiveness of tools & mechanisms for technology co-operation

  43. Proposals from Parties • Compulsory licensing • Patent purchase • Incentive provisions for technology transfer • Funding for technology co-operation activities • Development of indicators, monitoring, verification, etc • New policy initiatives • Specific technology or sector-based approaches • Technology & efficiency standards • Identification of breakthrough technologies • Creation of centres of excellence to promote technology • Information diffusion mechanisms (national and international) • New financial mechanisms • Multilateral Fund • Venture Capital Initiative Institutional arrangements for a new mechanism for RDD&D and technology transfer, i.e., new body with mandate for:

  44. Presented at theUNDP Workshop on Investment and Financial Flows 12-13 September, 2008 WORK FOR ASSESSINGINVESTMENT &FINANCIAL FLOWSFOR CLIMATE CHANGEBhujang Dharmaji, UNDP

  45. Project goals & outcomes • Goals • Development of national policy options to address climate change in key sectors • Increased capacity to co-ordinate negotiating positions at national level and participate in the UNFCCC process • Outcomes • 1 National awareness raised with capacity development programme • 2 Investment and financial (I&F) flows assessed for up to 3 key sectors • 3 Web-based knowledge platform launched

  46. Sequencing of national activities National workshop on Bali Action Plan, national issues National workshop to present results, policy options Assessment of I&F flows to address CC mitigation/adaptation options for up to 3 key economic sectors (6-8 months) Pre-workshop preparation (2 months) • Update on Bali Action Plan negotiations • I&F flows assessments presented • Post-2012 preparation • Key line ministries engaged • Key sectors identified • National issues papers prepared • National workshop on: • Bali Action Plan • Adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer, financing + LULUCF • Key sectors UNDP methodology on assessing I&F flows Backstopping from regional centres of excellence 45

  47. I&FF work • I&FF assessment • What are the adaptation/ mitigation options for up to 3 sectors selected in the next 25 years? • Who is investing in the sector / major players and sources? • How I&FF are estimated to happen in next 25 years? • What shifts/increase in I&FF will be needed in the sector? • What will be the overall needs for additional I&FF? • 3 Main guides • Work Plan Guidance • Methodological guidance • Reporting guidance

  48. Preparation stage (1- 2 months) • Define national objectives and goals for the assessment • Identify and agree on the key sectors • Establish the I&FF team • Assess methodological capacities and needs • Assess information availability and needs • Agree the institutional arrangements • Develop the overall programme of work and budget • Define the scope of the sectors • Adjustment of available scenarios and/or development of new scenarios • Develop detailed workplan • Develop budget

  49. Project Focal Point Sectoral team leader Sectoral team leader Sectoral team leader Sector 1 Team, e.g. energy mitigation Sector 2 Team, e.g. agriculture adaptation Sector 3 Team, e.g. water adaptation Mitigation expert(s) Adaptation expert(s) Adaptation expert(s) Energy expert(s) Agriculture expert(s) Water expert(s) Finance expert(s) Finance expert(s) Finance expert(s) Economic/statistics expert(s) Economic/statistics expert(s) Economic/statistics expert(s) NGO/academic expert(s) NGO/academic expert(s) NGO/academic expert(s) Private sector expert(s) Private sector expert(s) Private sector expert(s) I&FF team

  50. UNDP support • $ support • Guides • I&FF training (3 days) • Center of excellence technical backstopping (20 days) • Knowledge platform – with “communities” to exchange information • Global workshops

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