Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 January 12, 2012

Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 • 2008 and 2010 ClassOn Line: • http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action • The challenge of identifying observational constraints on climate projection uncertainties • Charles Jackson, University of Texas at Austin • Thursday, January 12, 2012 • 3:30 pm - 4:30 pm • 2246 Space Research Building.

First Reading Response • Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC-AR4) • Reading responses of roughly one page (single-spaced). The responses do not need to be elaborate, but they should also not summarize the reading. They should be used by you as think pieces to refine your questions and insight from the readings. They must be submitted via CTools at least two hours before the start of lecture for the relevant readings.

Correlated behavior of different parameters Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate/.

Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2 It’s not an either / or argument. Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.

Today • Relation of climate change and other big ticket items. • Basic Picture of System • Carbon Dioxide and Climate • Past Variability and Historical Context • Carbon Dioxide Budget

Relationship of Climate Change to Other Things

Climate Change Relationships • We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas

World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 * Source: International Energy Agency 2005 megaton oil equivalent

Update: Electricity Production by Fuel 1974: Total 6272 Tera Watts 2007 Total 19771 Tera Watts 6% 21% 42% 14% 16% 3% • Oil 23% • Natural gas 12% • Coal 37% • Nuclear 4% • Hydro 23% • Other 1% IEA: Scoreboard 2009 (for 2007 numbers) Page 31

Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION

Climate Change Relationships • Climate change is linked to consumption. • The economy depends on us consuming • Consuming generates the waste that causes climate change. • The consumption that has set us on this road of global warming has been by a relatively small percentage of the population. • Wealth is an important variable. • Hence, social equity is an issue.

That is the big picture context • Consumption of energy by a larger percentage of a growing population. • Increasing green house gases, global warming, climate change, comes from the waste of our energy production or the waste of our economies.

Scientific Method and Earth’s Climate • We will first break the scientific investigation down into pieces. • Theory … Draw a Picture • Observations • Prediction • Attribution • Impacts • We will look at the links of climate change to the other parts of the problem. • There is not a simple “solution;” we will not solve this problem and walk away from it. • We will be required to manage the climate • We will define ways forward.

Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN: ENERGY, HEAT EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN EARTH PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

Today • Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information • Observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) • Behavior of CO2 and Temperature • CO2 balance in the atmosphere

Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas Data and more information

Web links to some CO2 data • NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division • Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gas • Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide • Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center • Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations • NOAA/PMEL CO2 and Ocean

Let’s look to the past • This is called “paleoclimatology.” • NOAA’s Paleoclimatology Branch • Ice Core Portal • Vostok Data • Petit, Nature, 1999 • Koshland Science Museum

Times of low temperature have glaciers, ice ages (CO2 <~ 200 ppm) • Times of high temperature associated with CO2 of < 300 ppm Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores This has been extended back to > 700,000 years • During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

It’s been about 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age • There has been less than 10,000 years of history “recorded” by humans (and it has been relatively warm) Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores • During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

CO2 2100 460 ppm So what are we worried about? CO2 2010 390 ppm 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores • Carbon dioxide is, because of our emissions, much higher than ever experienced by human kind • Temperature is expected to follow • New regimes of climate behavior? • Humans are adapted to current climate behavior. • The change is expected to happen rapidly (10 -100 years, not 1000’s)

We have gone through those figures fast • But professor, I spent a lot of time looking at this figure. The carbon dioxide and temperature sometimes DO NOT seem perfectly related. Plus, I have read that in the past the temperature increase started before the carbon dioxide increase. • But professor, I want to go back to that figure. I spent a lot of time looking at it. It’s pretty clear that an ice age is on the way. The climate is clearly periodic, and there is nothing we can do about it.

CO2 2100 460 ppm Are we saving civilization? CO2 2005 360 ppm 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores • If the normal pattern were to continue, without additional carbon dioxide, what would we expect?

Global cooling? Why do we think that our predictions today are more robust than these predictions from the 1970s? (Next week, this will be an assignment. One page or less. Maybe blog length.)

Thinking about these figures and ice ages • Correlations • Cause and effect • Scientific method

New Regimes of Climate Behavior? GREEN HOUSE • Differences for the Future (100-200 years) • ~100 ppm CO2 (Already) • > 200-300 ppm CO2 certain • ~ xx C polar T difference • ~ xx C global average T difference CURRENT (Temperate) Behavior of water; Phase change • Differences from Past (20,000 years) • ~100 ppm CO2 • ~ 20 C polar T difference • ~ 5 C global average T difference ICE AGE Time gradient of CO2 changes, 2 orders of magnitude (100 times) larger.

Let’s return to the predictions • In the introduction / motivation for the course, I introduced the IPCC predictions.

IPCC projections for the next 100 years.

These numbers are in reasonable relation. STEAM AGE? ~500 ppm • Differences for the Future (100-200 years) • ~100 ppm CO2 (Already) • > 200-300 ppm CO2 certain • ~ 8-20 C polar T difference • ~ 2-6 C global average T difference CURRENT (360 ppm) Behavior of water; Phase change • Differences from Past (20,000 years) • ~100 ppm CO2 • ~ 20 C polar T difference • ~ 5 C global average T difference ICE AGE ~200 ppm Time gradient of CO2 changes, 2 orders of magnitude (100 times) larger.

From the Ice Core Data: Questions? • We see a relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) and Temperature (T) • What is the cause and effect? • Why do we bounce between these two regimes? • Dynamic equilibrium? • Are these oscillations forced in some way by an external force? • Are there other parameters or attributes which are correlated with this behavior? • What is different from the stock market, where past behavior does not indicate future performance?

Let’s Look at the past 1000 years • We have more sources of observations. • We have better observations. • We have public records and literature and natural history.

Medieval warm period • “Little ice age” • Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.

Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. { Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record. What is the cause of the temperature variability? Can we identify mechanisms, cause and effect? How?

What do we see from the past 1000 years • On shorter time scales the CO2 and T are not as cleanly related. • Periods on noted warmth and coolness are separated by changes in average temperature of only 0.5 F. • Changes of average temperature on this scale seem to matter to people. • Regional changes, extremes? • Recent changes in both T and CO2 are unprecedented in the past several hundred thousands of years. • And the last 10,000 years, which is when humans have thrived in the way that we have thrived.

Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas Data and more information

What about the CO2 increase? Concept of “stabilization” CO2 now Stabilization as we have thought about it in the past may not be possible.

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Important things in this figure.

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Enormous amount of carbon dioxide in the ocean.

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? -2 Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and ocean ocean.

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Large amount of carbon dioxide in the “soil” and plants

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? -1 Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and “land.”

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Large amount of carbon dioxide in coal, oil, gas

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Hundreds of Years +5.5 Movement of carbon dioxide by burning Millions of Years

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? +1 Movement of carbon dioxide by land use changes

Were you counting? • Net sources into the atmosphere • Net removal from the atmosphere 5.5 + 1 = 6.5 2+1 = 3

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)