Big Data… Big Problems?

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# Big Data… Big Problems? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Big Data… Big Problems?. Big Data… Big Problems?. Big Data… Big Problems?. The Lessons of 2012. The 538 Method (Simplified). 1. Average the Polls. 2. Count to 270. 3. Account for Margin of Error. The Lessons of 2012. The Lessons of 2012. The Lessons of 2012. The Lessons of 2012.

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Presentation Transcript
The Lessons of 2012

The 538 Method (Simplified)

1. Average the Polls

2. Count to 270

3. Account for Margin of Error

The Lessons of 2012

“nate silver”

“joe biden”

The Lessons of 2012

“justin bieber”

Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/sports.png

Suggestions

1. Think Probabilistically

2. Know Where You’re Coming From

3. Try, and Err

Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically

Levee: 51’

Flood Prediction: 49’

Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically

Margin of Error: ±9’

Levee: 51’

Flood Prediction: 49’

Suggestion #3: Try, and Err

Water level

Accuracy

Effort

Suggestion #3: Try, and Err

Accuracy

Effort

Suggestions

1. Think Probabilistically

2. Know Where You’re Coming From

3. Try, and Err

Suggestions

2. Know Where You’re Coming From

3. Try, and Err

Suggestions

3. Try, and Err

Suggestions