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Big Data… Big Problems?. Big Data… Big Problems?. Big Data… Big Problems?. The Lessons of 2012. The 538 Method (Simplified). 1. Average the Polls. 2. Count to 270. 3. Account for Margin of Error. The Lessons of 2012. The Lessons of 2012. The Lessons of 2012. The Lessons of 2012.

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Presentation Transcript
the lessons of 2012
The Lessons of 2012

The 538 Method (Simplified)

1. Average the Polls

2. Count to 270

3. Account for Margin of Error

the lessons of 20124
The Lessons of 2012

“nate silver”

“joe biden”

the lessons of 20125
The Lessons of 2012

“justin bieber”

problem 2 desperately seeking signal
Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/sports.png

suggestions1
Suggestions

1. Think Probabilistically

2. Know Where You’re Coming From

3. Try, and Err

suggestion 1 think probabilistically
Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically

Levee: 51’

Flood Prediction: 49’

suggestion 1 think probabilistically1
Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically

Margin of Error: ±9’

Levee: 51’

Flood Prediction: 49’

suggestion 3 try and err6
Suggestion #3: Try, and Err

Water level

Accuracy

Effort

suggestion 3 try and err7
Suggestion #3: Try, and Err

Competitive Advantage

Accuracy

Effort

suggestions2
Suggestions

1. Think Probabilistically

2. Know Where You’re Coming From

3. Try, and Err

suggestions3
Suggestions

(Know Your Limitations)

2. Know Where You’re Coming From

3. Try, and Err

suggestions4
Suggestions

(Know Your Limitations)

(Consider Your Assumptions)

3. Try, and Err

suggestions5
Suggestions

(Know Your Limitations)

(Consider Your Assumptions)

(Refine Your Process)

suggestions6
Suggestions

“In Science, We Seek to Balance Creativity and Skepticism”

-- Michael Babyak, PhD, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Science, Duke University Medical

Center