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Petroleum and Natural Gas Situation. John C. Felmy Chief Economist and Director Statistics Department American Petroleum Institute Felmyj@api.org www.api.org www.gasolineandyou.org www.naturalgasfacts.org. What is needed in a National Energy Policy?.

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slide1

Petroleum and Natural Gas Situation

John C. FelmyChief Economist and Director Statistics DepartmentAmerican Petroleum InstituteFelmyj@api.orgwww.api.orgwww.gasolineandyou.orgwww.naturalgasfacts.org

what is needed in a national energy policy
What is needed in a National Energy Policy?
  • Conservation and energy efficiency are important but are insufficient alone.
  • Renewable energy is an important but small source of energy. Until it’s cost is reduced, it will continue to be a small source.
  • Even with improved efficiency and more renewable energy, we will still need more conventional energy – oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear.

Robustness, Redundancy and Diversity

d j vu all over again
2003

Early 2003

Cold winter

Venezuela shutdown

Nigerian strikes

Iraq

High crude oil prices

California MTBE ban transition start

Summer 2003

Blackout

Pipeline problems

Strong demand

Japanese nuclear outages

2004

OPEC cuts

Cold winter

Japanese nuclear outages

Venezuela uncertainty

Iraq uncertainty

Nigerian uncertainty

Terrorist attacks

Norwegian Strikes

Yukos

Strong economic growth

Dollar depreciation

High crude oil prices

High natural gas prices

Lower sulfur gasoline

California finishes MTBE ban transition

Mississippi river accident

Refinery outages

Strong gasoline demand

NY/CT MTBE bans

Hurricanes

Déjà vu, All Over Again
slide15

Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

(Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004)

Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

(Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004)

OPEC Capacity - EIA

slide16

Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

(Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004)

Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

(Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004)

EIA Crude Oil Forecast

slide17

Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

(Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004)

Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

(Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004)

EIA Natural Gas Forecast

u s energy consumption quadrillion btus aeo 2004 eia

Fuel

2003

2025

Percent Change

Petroleum

Share

38.7

39.5%

55.0

40.3%

41.9

Natural Gas

Share

22.7

23.1%

32.2

23.6%

42.1

Coal

Share

22.6

23.0%

31.7

23.2%

40.4

Nuclear

Share

8.0

8.1%

8.5

6.2%

7.1

Other

Share

6.1

6.2%

9.0

6.6%

47.5

Total

98.1

136.5

39.2

U.S. Energy Consumption – Quadrillion BtusAEO 2004 - EIA
eia forecast to 2003 to 2025
EIA Forecast to 2003 to 2025
  • Real Gross Domestic Product is projected to increase by 92 percent
  • Population is projected to increase by 19 percent
  • Renewable energy supply is projected to increase by 50 percent
  • Energy efficiency (output per unit of energy) is projected to improve by 27 percent
  • Net petroleum imports are projected to increase, providing 70 percent of U.S. demand in 2025.
  • Growth in petroleum demand is led by transportation, where efficiency improvements are more than offset by growing travel demand and petroleum’s market share increases slightly.
  • Crude oil production falls by 19 percent.
  • Imports of crude oil grow by 65 percent.
  • Petroleum product imports increase by 80 percent.
  • Refinery capacity expands from 16.8 to 21.8 million barrels per day
  • Refinery utilization is projected to increase from 91 to 95 percent
world energy consumption quadrillion btus eia

Fuel

2001

2025

Percent Change

Petroleum

Share

156.5

38.7%

245.3

39.4%

56.7

Natural Gas

Share

93.1

23.1%

156.5

25.1%

68.1

Coal

Share

95.9

23.7%

140.2

22.5%

46.2

Nuclear

Share

26.4

6.5%

30.4

4.9%

15.2

Other

Share

32.2

8.0%

50.4

8.1%

56.5

Total

403.9

622.9

54.2

World Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus - EIA
world energy demand
World Energy Demand

Total Energy

Other Energy

Solar & Wind

MBDOE

MBDOE

MBDOE

Growth Rate 2000-2020, %

Growth Rate 2000-2020, %

Growth Rate 2000-2020, %

Solar & Wind

1.2

Other

1.7

1.3

Biomass,

MSW

Coal

14.0

2.9

Gas

0.2

Nuclear

Wind

10.4

Oil

1.8

Solar

2.4

Hydro

Source: ExxonMobil

forecast demand growth
Forecast demand growth

ROW

LA

Other Asia Pacific

OECD

Source: ExxonMobil

massive supply growth needed
Massive supply growth needed

Non-OPEC

Total

NGL / Other

44

Non-OPEC Crude

Undeveloped /

Undiscovered

Other

OPEC Crude

NGL/

Condensate

Non-OPEC Crude

Developed

Non-OPEC Crude

Source: ExxonMobil

world oil balance 2000 2020
World Oil Balance: 2000 - 2020

Net Imports, MBD

Net Exports, MBD

FSU & Eastern Europe

6.8

Europe

6.2

3.1

2000 2010 2020

US/Canada

7.2

10.6

8.8

2000 2010 2020

2000 2010 2020

Asia Pacific

10.6

12.3

13.6

2000 2010 2020

Africa

8.1

Middle East

12.6

18.2

27.2

7.2

5.3

34.5

Latin America

2000 2010 2020

21.8

18.5

3.5

4.1

2.0

12.1

2000 2010 2020

30.1

2000 2010 2020

Source: ExxonMobil

technology
Technology
  • Can be expected to adapt over several generations
  • Markets work – they provide flexibility and discipline
  • Attempts to replace oil prematurely are likely to be costly
  • “Running out” is not likely
developing additional supply will be challenging
Developing additional supply will be challenging
  • Non-OPEC production shifting to new challenging frontiers
  • Gulf OPEC needs to double capacity
  • Capital needs are enormous
policy
Policy
  • Promotion of free investment and trade is essential
  • Accurate depiction of impact of resource development is key
  • Opposition to oil development is a serious threat
one word
One Word
  • Hydrates