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Review #1 …

Review #1 …. Is there a systematic way to assess regression studies? (SW Chapter 9). A Framework for Assessing Statistical Studies: Internal and External Validity. Threats to External Validity. Threats to Internal Validity. 1. Wrong functional form. 2. Omitted variable bias.

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Review #1 …

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  1. Review #1 …

  2. Is there a systematic way to assess regression studies? (SW Chapter 9)

  3. A Framework for Assessing Statistical Studies: Internal and External Validity

  4. Threats to External Validity

  5. Threats to Internal Validity

  6. 1. Wrong functional form

  7. 2. Omitted variable bias

  8. 3. Errors-in-variables bias

  9. Errors-in-variables bias

  10. Errors-in-variables bias

  11. Potential solutions to errors-in-variables bias

  12. 4. Sample selection bias

  13. Example #1: Mutual funds

  14. Example #2: Returns to education

  15. Potential solutions to sample selection bias

  16. 5. Simultaneous causality bias

  17. Simultaneous causality bias

  18. Potential solutions to simultaneous causality bias

  19. Internal and External Validity When the Regression is Used for Forecasting

  20. Applying External and Internal Validity: Test Scores and Class Size

  21. The Massachusetts data: summary statistics

  22. Predicted effects for a class size reduction of 2

  23. Summary of Findings for Massachusetts

  24. Comparison of estimated class size effects: CA vs. MA

  25. Summary: Comparison of California and Massachusetts Regression Analyses

  26. Remaining threats to internal validity in the test score/class size example?

  27. Spot the Endogeneity? • Estimating the effect of police on crime … • Effect of police on crime … • Source: Levitt (American Economic Review, 1997)

  28. Spot the Endogeneity? • Estimating the effect of police on crime …

  29. Spot the Endogeneity? • Estimating the effect of guns on crime … • Source: Ayres and Donohue (Stanford Law Review, 2003)

  30. Spot the Endogeneity? • Estimating the effect of studying on GPA … • Source: Stinebricker and Stinebricker (BE Journal of Analysis & Policy, 2008)

  31. Spot the Endogeneity? • Estimating the effect of school start time on academic performance … • Source: Carrell, Maghakian, and West (American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2011)

  32. Spot the Endogeneity? • Estimating the effect of national income on democracy … • Source: Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson, and Yared (American Economic Review, 2008)

  33. Spot the Endogeneity? • Estimating the effect of competition on student achievement … • Source: Hoxby(American Economic Review, 2000)

  34. Spot the Endogeneity? • Estimating the effect of teen drinking on HS completion/attending college … • Source: Dee & Evans (Journal of Labor Economics, 2003)

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