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The use of the BelEUROS model for policy support at LNE. TEMIS-workshop 8/9 October 2007 on behalf of: Mirka Van der Elst Flemish Ministry of the Environment, Nature and Energy (Department LNE) Mirka.vanderelst@lne.vlaanderen.be Tel. +32 2 553 11 23. Contents.

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the use of the beleuros model for policy support at lne

The use of the BelEUROS model for policy support at LNE

TEMIS-workshop

8/9 October 2007

on behalf of: Mirka Van der Elst

Flemish Ministry of the Environment, Nature and Energy

(Department LNE)

Mirka.vanderelst@lne.vlaanderen.be

Tel. +32 2 553 11 23

contents
Contents
  • Tasks of the Department LNE in Flanders
  • Flanders in Europe
  • Example of a policy related study with the

BelEUROS model

  • Conclusions and Recommendations
1 tasks of the department lne
1) Tasks of the Department LNE
  • Policy support of the Flemish Minister of the Environment concerning air quality, climate change and the effects of environmental pollution on human health
  • Elaboration of measures against air pollution by e.g. particulate matter, NO2, ozone and heavy metals
  • Specific measures for specific target groups in Flanders, such as the different industrial sectors, traffic and transportation, energy production, agriculture, …
  • Coordination of the Flemish activities in international agreements, e.g. the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) for NOx, SO2, NMVOC’s and NH3 and the emission reduction targets for greenhouse gases
2 flanders europe pm 2 5

2000 2010 2020

Rural PM2,5 concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] originating from known anthropogenic sources

(excl. sec. org. aerosols)

2) Flanders - Europe: PM2.5

Source: IIASA - EMEP

3 attainment of eu air quality levels no 2 annual mean concentration
3) Attainment of EU Air Quality Levels: NO2 annual mean concentration

Since 2001 increase in NO2 due to higher O3-background and higher NO2/NO-ratio in traffic emissions  problems with EU limit value

3 no 2 in belgium attainment analysis 2005 2010 2015 using cle emission scenario
3) NO2 in Belgium: attainment analysis 2005 - 2010 – 2015 using CLE emission scenario

Annualmean (µg/m³)

2010

2005

Calculation of “background” concentrations with BelEUROS model

2015

3 attainability of no 2 limit values in belgian cities
3) Attainability of NO2 limit values in Belgian cities

Urban Background (annual mean) µg/m³

Street Increment (narrow busy streets)

µg/m³ (*)

Annual mean (narrow busy streets)

µg/m³

2005 30 - 40 25 55 - 65

2010 25 - 35 25 50 - 60

2015 22.5 - 32.5 20 42.5 - 52.5

Year

EU mean annual limit value for NO2: 40 µg/m3

(*) Air pollution at street level, EEA technical report 1/2006

Limit value might be attained in urban background locations but not in busy streets, even not in 2015

3 pm 10 in belgium attainment analysis 2005 2010 2015 using cle emission scenario
3) PM10 in Belgium: attainment analysis 2005 - 2010 – 2015 using CLE emission scenario

Annualmean (µg/m³)

2005

2010

Calculation of “background” concentrations with BelEUROS model

2015

3 attainability of pm 10 limit values in belgian cities
3) Attainability of PM10 limit values in Belgian cities

2005 30 - 35 10 40 - 4573 - 94

2010 27.5 - 32.5 10 37.5 - 42.562 - 83

2015 25 - 30 5 30 - 35 31- 52

Urban Background (annual mean) µg/m³

Street Increment (narrow busy streets)

µg/m³ (*)

Annual mean (narrow busy streets)

µg/m³

Number of

days daily

limit value

>50

Year

EU limit values: annual limit: mean value 40 µg/m3,

daily limit value: 35 days with exceedances

(*) Air pollution at street level, EEA technical report 1/2006

Annual mean limit might be attained in part of busy streets, daily limit value will not be attained in most streets, even not in 2015

3 pm 2 5 in belgium attainment analysis 2005 2010 2015 using cle emission scenario
3) PM2.5 in Belgium: attainment analysis 2005 - 2010 – 2015 using CLE emission scenario

Annualmean (µg/m³)

2005

2010

Calculation of “background” concentrations with BelEUROS model

2015

3 attainability of pm 2 5 limit values in belgian cities
3) Attainability of PM2.5 limit values in Belgian cities

2005 22.5 - 25 8 30.5 - 33

2010 17.5 - 22.5 8 25.5 - 30.5

2015 15 - 20 4 19-24

Urban Background (annual mean) µg/m³

Street Increment (narrow busy streets)

µg/m³ (*)

Annual mean (narrow busy streets)

µg/m³

Year

planned EU limit value: annual mean value 25 µg/m3

(*) Air pollution at street level, EEA technical report 1/2006

Annual mean limit might be attained in busy streets, but only in 2015

4 conclusions and recommendations for the further work
4) Conclusions and recommendations for the further work

Conclusion:

Long range transport of air pollutants influences the background concentrations of e.g. O3, NO2 and PM10 in Belgium. Long range transport may even play a role in the non-attainment of EU limit values for certain pollutants.

Recommendation:

Improve the representation of long range transport of air pollutants in the BelEUROS model by using more realistic boundary conditions, especially for O3, NO2 and PM10.

information
Information
  • More information on research projects carried out by order of LNE can be found on website http://www.lne.be/themas/luchtverontreiniging