Learning from the energy t ransition in four oecd countries germany italy japan switzerland
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Learning from the energy t ransition in four OECD Countries Germany , Italy , Japan, Switzerland. Dr Fulcieri Maltini Dr Jean-Roger Mercier November 2012. Overview.

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Learning from the energy t ransition in four oecd countries germany italy japan switzerland

Learning from the energy transition in four OECD Countries Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland

Dr Fulcieri Maltini

Dr Jean-Roger Mercier

November 2012


Overview
Overview

  • Germany, Italy, Japan and Switzerland are currentlyimplementing an energy transition away from nuclear power and givingpriority to energy conservation and renewables,

  • Motivations behind these transitions vary and so do their pace, costs and fundings,

  • This presentation tries to distilllessons from these transitions thatcanapply to Europe and France.


Germany background
Germany - background

  • Historically, a divided country after WW2 reuniting in 1990 and requiringhigh power supply for itsreunification and industrial development: 4,140 TWh/year in 1990

  • Politically, a strongsurge of the Green party (« die Grünen ») thatmakes, from the onset, nuclear phasing-out as one of itskeytargets

  • A strong energy efficiency policy has allowed a 10% power demandreduction, withonly 3,715 TWh consumed in 2011


Germany strategy
Germany - Strategy

  • In 2000, the socialist-green coalition puts a moratorium on nuclear power in the country

  • The decisionisreversed by the MerkelGovernment in 2010, at a time when nuclear produces 11% of Germany’s primary energy

  • And in 2011, the politicaldecisioncomes to phase out nuclear entirelywithseveralpotential deadlines,


Germany the plan s
Germany – the plan(s)

  • Energiewende (energy transition) becomes a householdname and the world looks at Germany for guidance and enlightment

  • March of 2011: 8 nuclear plants are closed down

  • Summer of 2011: the legal package adoptedprojects the end of nuclear generation by 2022

  • Many challenges have been identified


Germany objectives for 2050
Germany – objectives for 2050

  • GreenhouseGas (GHG) emissionreduction: 80 to 95% (ref. 1990)

  • Renewables in the overall energy balance 60%

  • Ditto in gross power production 80%

  • Primary energy production (ref 2008) - 50%

  • Electric power consumption (ditto) - 25%


Germany 2050 renewables
Germany 2050 – Renewables

  • Lion’sshare to wind 170 TWh (113 offshore)

  • Biomass and photovoltaics 40 TWh each

  • Hydro: stable at 24 TWh

    In all, 80% of domestic power production, and needingcreative network management to compensate for volatility

    Anotherhuge challenge: extending the transmission gridat a pace of 470 km/year vs 35 atpresent.


Opportunities and euros
Opportunities and euros

  • The decentralized management of the country opens up great local opportunies and several « cantons » are alreadygenerating more energy thanthey consume (« positive energy »)

  • DIW’sprognosis: up to 800 billion € to spend over the coming 50 years. Increases of consumer prices have begun and are confrontedwithcriticism and protests.


Italy background
Italy - Background

  • End of WW2: Italy relies almostexclusively on hydro (88% of power generation)

  • 1990: thermal power has taken over the lead (63%), with hydro down to 16% and electricty imports making up for the rest (12%)

  • After a briefattempt to develop nuclear, the Italian people, in a 1990 referendum followingChernobyl, rejectfurther nuclear power development.


Italy the historic referendum
Italy – the historic referendum

  • Under the pressure of the French, the Berlusconi governmentembarks on a new referendum in 2011, hoping to reintroduce nuclear

  • Over 90% of the votersreject nuclear again and the Italiangovernment moves forward

  • Targets of 17% renewables by 2020, inferior to the European average, are set


Italy local power
Italy – Local Power

  • After the referendum, municipalities and regions are encouraged to developtheirown power generation/conservation programs

  • By2012, over 400,000 local power generationunits of various dimensions wereoperationalacross the country and over 95% municipalities, large cities as well as small villages, wereequippedwith multiple sources of energy mix


Italy renewable present
Italy – Renewablepresent

  • Growth in the number of municipalitiesequippedwithrenewable energy generationisspectacular: from 3,190 in 2008 to 7,986 in 2011,

  • As a result, Italycomes second in Europe for solar power generation (12,750 MW vs 24,700 for Germany)

  • Energy mixes are adapted to local resourceavailability (solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydro)


Italy the pionneer
Italy – the pionneer

  • Large solar thermal power generation plants are alsobeinginstalled and run: 30 MW in Sicily in operation, more planned in this range

  • Wind farms are multiplying and Italyisthirdproduced behind Germany and Spain

  • Biomass use ismaximizedwithvarioussubstrates and processes: e.g. fermentation of wine production by-products, biogas distribution in local naturalgas grids, biogas in vehicles, ….


Italy more good news
Italy – more good news

  • Energy efficiency and conservation are highlydeveloped

  • Smart grids and smart meters (over 30 million unitssold and installed) complement the approach

  • As of 2012, 23 municipalitieswereselling more energy thantheywereproducing

  • Energy storageisdiversified and is putting Italyat the forefront of thiscriticalelement of Energiewende.


Italy towards 2020 objectives
Italy – Towards 2020 - Objectives

  • Primary energy demand - 4% (reference 2010).

  • Stable power demand

  • Renewables 20% of final energy demand and 38% superior of gas’s

  • The required 180 billion € investment to beallocatedat 72% for renewables and remaining 28 % for conventionalsectors (extraction, oil & gas production and transportation, GNL regazeification and thermal power plant construction)


Japan recovering from the trauma
Japan – Recovering from the trauma

  • The thirdlargest power consumer in the world, Japan started, in the late 40’s with a simple energy mix: coal 50%, hydro 33%.

  • In the early 70’s, nuclear comes into the picture and ishailed as a miracle source for an oil importer,

  • Nuclear share in power production grew from 4% in 1973 to 24% in 2009 in spite of activists’ protest, overheated after each nuclear accident (TMI, Chernobyl)


The fukushima turning point
The Fukushima turning point

  • The vastmajority of Japanese, however, werefollowing suit with the nuclear lobby, verywellorganized under the auspices of the powerfulNippon Keidanren

  • 54 nuclear power plants were in operation in early 2011,

  • And then Fukushima happened and, beyond the human/economicdrama, exposed the lack of preparation and the ineffectiveness of TepCo and the JapaneseGovernment


Eighteen months later
Eighteenmonthslater…

  • The situation isyet to bestabilized in Fukushima and surroundings (e.g. sea pollution)

  • The Japanesegovernment, under the pressure of the street, had to revise and deeplymodifyits energy plans

  • All nuclear plants wereclosed and their production rapidlysubstitutedwith thermal plants


Prospects
Prospects

  • Japan will have difficulties meeting itscarbonemissionreductiontargets if the ban on nuclear isconfirmed

  • The new target (- 20% by 2030 vs the previous – 25% by 2020) isheavilycritized by local activists

  • Japan plans to spendnearly 500 b US$ on renewables in the comingtwodecades

  • No costestimate for Energiewende seems to have been produced/discussed


Switzerland background
Switzerland - background

  • After WW2, the country wasrelyingprimarily on hydro, thenattempted to introduce nuclear

  • The accident at the Lucens nuclear experimental power plant in 1969 killed the public sector program

  • In parallel, between 1969 and 1984, the privatesectorbuilt five nuclear power plants that are in operation and provide 3.2 of the 20 GW national power demand


Switzerland after fukushima
Switzerland after Fukushima

  • March 25, 2011, the Federalcouncilopts out of nuclear, programming the closing of the 5 existingplants between 2019 and 2034, possiblyearlier for Mühlenbergthat has similarfeatureswith Fukushima

  • The FederalGovernmentisactivelypreparing a national energy law to beadopted by Parliament in end of 2012 and subjected to referendum in 2014


Key features of the energiewende
Key features of the Energiewende

  • Focus on energy efficiency, withtargets of demandreduction of 70 TWh and 20 TWh resp. for total energy and electricitydemandreduction by 2050

  • Priority to energy conservation measures in houses and offices

  • Reliance on rapid take-off of a variety of renewables


Noteworthy 2050 targets
Noteworthy 2050 targets

  • Photovoltaics + 10 TWh

  • Wind + 4 TWh

  • Geothermal + 4.4 TWh

  • Wood biomass + 1.1 TWh

  • Biogas + 1.4 TWh

  • Hydro + 3.2 TWh


Parallel processes
Parallelprocesses

  • Three « popular initiatives » launched

    • Closing of all nuclear plants by 2023

    • Cleantech: to accelerate energy efficiency and renewables development

    • Ecological fiscal reform

  • Several « cantons », opposed to nuclear, have set theirown bans (e.g. Geneva whichgets 87% of energy from renewables and imports the rest)


Costing
Costing

  • The Cleantech initiative has been costed by the University of Lausanne

  • The losers wouldbeimporters (0.6 billion CHF over 2012-2030, power producers 3.1 and the FederalTreasury 2.1)…

  • In exchange for 21-26 b CHF increase in GDP, or 2% and the creation of 15,000 jobs


What lessons for france and europe
What lessons for France and Europe?

  • France lives in the economiccrisis mode. The Fukushima shock has largely been forgotten and the nuclear lobby isstrong as ever

  • France is, however, increasinglyisolated in the refusal of the Energiewende

  • In the four countries studiedhere, the Energiewende is in place and central as well as local governments are marching. France’scentralizationisalso a handicap.


France and europe
France and Europe

  • Adding to the French delayis the inertia of a system thattook 11 years to transpose the European Directive 2001/42 on the environmental assessment on plans and programs in the energy sector

  • The only viable solution can come from Europe, which has the tools and mechanisms to help integratethese Energiewende into a stable and effective system. Will therebe the politicialwill?