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Materials from Professor G. L. Kulcinski and 2012 BP Energy Outlook to 2030 Report. The IEA / OECD define one toe to be equal to 41.868 GJ [1] other definitions of toe, for example: 1 toe = 42 GJ 1 toe = 7.11, 7.33, or 7.4 barrel of oil equivalent (boe). 2.5 bill toe/yr.
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Materials from Professor G. L. Kulcinski and 2012 BP Energy Outlook to 2030 Report
The IEA/OECD define one toe to be equal to 41.868 GJ[1] other definitions of toe, for example: 1 toe = 42 GJ 1 toe = 7.11, 7.33, or 7.4 barrel of oil equivalent (boe)
2.5 bill toe/yr 10 bill toe/yr
Growth Rate of Energy Demand is Slowing but quantity going UP
Growth Rate of Energy Demand is Slowing Growth mainly in LDCs, Fossil Fuels decline to 81%
Growth Rate of Energy Demand is Slowing Slowing Growth of Fossil Fuels
Maximim Fossil Fuel Supply from all sources LMFBR – Breeder Reactor, creates additional fuel see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor LWR – Light Water Reactor current typesee http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_water_reactor
Recoverable Fossil Fuel estimated at only half of total supply need Nuke power to make up rest
Visions of the Future • Peak Oil Production is here/near? OR • Fossil fuels will persist for a century?
Although Natural Gas reserves are currently climbing due to “Fracking”
Has the United States beaten peak oil? Not so fast. Washington Post Posted by Brad Plumerat 02:27 PM ET, 02/17/2012
Hydraulic fracturing …with the spelling "fracking" being common in media reports[3]) is a process that results in the creation of fractures in rocks. The most important industrial use is in stimulating oil and gas wells, where hydraulic fracturing has been used for over 60 years in more than one million wells.[citation needed] The fracturing is done from a wellbore drilled into reservoir rock formations to increase the rate and ultimate recovery of oil and natural gas. Some environmental and human health concerns possibly associated with hydraulic fracturing include the contamination of ground water, risks to air quality, the migration of gases and hydraulic fracturing chemicals to the surface, and the potential mishandling of waste. In April 2010 the state of Pennsylvania banned Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. from further drilling in the entire state until it plugs wells believed to be the source of contamination of the drinking water of 14 homes in Dimock Township PA. The investigation was initiated after a water well exploded on New Year's Day in 2009. The state investigation revealed that Cabot Oil & Gas Company "had allowed combustible gas to escape into the region's groundwater supplies."[19] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing
The key to Peak Oil Production of Oil versus Discovery
Peak oil production in past World map of Peak Oil Production http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ow1w33VAPII&feature=related
World Map as 3d rendition http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imp082AMNH8&feature=related
To Peak Oil People there is a General rule of thumb that there is a 30 to 40 year relationship between peaking of discoveries and a peaking of production.
Key question is what is the lag between discoveries and eventual peaking? MICHAEL LYNCH: Actually, I think the problem here is that Julian and a lot of the people making these arguments are not that familiar with the technical terms in the oil industry. The estimates that there's about two trillion barrels of oil resource are actually done by some very simplistic models, which have not always failed, but almost always failed on both the national and a global level. The oil conventional oil resource base, the oil in place, is about eight to ten trillion barrels. And right now, most estimates are that about 40% of that will be recovered, in other words, about three, three-and-a-half trillion. But the amount we'll recover will grow over time. So we're not -- we're really not even close to halfway through the conventional oil resource base. Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. Previously, Michael was Director of Asian Energy and Security, at the Center for International Studies, M.I.T., as well as a Lecturer in the Diplomatic Training Program at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. April 28, 2006 http://www.democracynow.org/2006/4/28/has_global_oil_production_reached_maximum
At the moment Norway Production is in decline See reserve peak for details
Have we seen “Peaking” discussion before where it didn’t occur? Lord Kelvin 1881
So, how much oil is there? CNN: Global oil reserves http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXYOOvGLzfI&feature=related
