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GEOSS ADC Architecture Workshop Water/Drought Scenario 5 Feb 2008 . David Arctur OGC Interoperability Institute [email protected] . Nov 2007 GEO Plenary and Ministerial Summit:. Drought … The Growing Threat.

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Geoss adc architecture workshop water drought scenario 5 feb 2008 l.jpg

GEOSS ADC Architecture WorkshopWater/Drought Scenario5 Feb 2008

David Arctur

OGC Interoperability Institute

[email protected]


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Nov 2007 GEO Plenary and Ministerial Summit:

Drought … The Growing Threat

  • During the past 30 years, there is evidence of an increase in the incidence of drought worldwide

  • Increasing temperatures combined with growing populations and unsustainable use of water resources are combining to magnify drought’s impacts

  • Required Areas of Expertise

    • Drought Monitoring

    • Forecasting

    • Impacts Monitoring and Assessment

  • Some or all of these areas are beginning to be addressed by national and regional programs

Response: Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)

  • Research

  • Education

  • Planning


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Scenario: Drought Monitoring and Response

  • Overview

  • Context and pre-conditions

  • Scenario events

  • Data sources and other coordination


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Overview

  • Drought: an increasingly damaging phenomena

    • Growing population & agricultural stresses on surface & groundwater

    • Reduced snow and glacier reservoirs

  • Complex phenomena

    • Defined across many time scales, impacting many economic sectors

    • Sea surface temperatures (SST), winds, land cover, many other factors

  • Scenario objectives

    • Monitor & forecast drought indicators

    • Assess water and drought conditions and impacts

    • Plan for mitigation

    • Carry out response strategy

    • Consider and address multi-disciplinary and cross-border institutional communications and coordination


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Context and pre-conditions

Actors (stakeholders)

Information available before scenario begins

Specific processing requirements

GUI development and GEOSS portal integration

Institutional coordination


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Context and pre-conditions: Actors

  • Consumers

    • Residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural

  • Local officials

    • City managers, county managers

  • Agency officials and staff

    • State Natural Resource Department decision/policy makers

    • State and Federal agency water managers

    • (USA) Army Corps of Engineers

  • GEOSS portal integrator


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Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 1

  • Example regions of interest

    • Near-term: Southeastern USA (NIDIS data and capabilities)

    • Longer-term: Pacific Basin (Americas, Australia, Pacific Islands)

  • Framework geographical datasets

    • Roadways, landcover, hydrography

    • Locations of major agricultural production, industrial centers, and urban areas with high water resource demands

    • Gazetteer and locations for built-up areas, with linked population figures

    • Digital terrain/elevation model

    • Orthophotography or satellite imagery


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Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 2

  • Environmental data

    • Precipitation 

    • Soil moisture indices

    • Drought indicators

      • Palmer Indices

      • SPI (standard precipitation index)

      • VHI (vegetation health index)

      • SWSI (surface water supply index)

    • Snow water content and snow depth

    • Streamflow, lake and reservoir levels, and groundwater status

    • Soil and air temperature

    • Humidity

    • Wind speed and direction

    • Solar radiation


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Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 3

Documented impacts on human and natural systems

  • Single-sector outputs such as agricultural yields

  • Multi-sector impacts such as those affecting water demands, wildfire risks, and recreation


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Context and pre-conditions: Specific processing capabilities

  • Monthly and seasonal forecasting of temperatures and precipitation; anomalies (greater/lesser than normal) 12 months in advance (example source: NWS Climate Prediction Center)

  • Assessment of current water conditions (precipitation, ground water, USDM indices, water monitor network, many products)

  • Drought 3-month outlook (USDM subjectively derived)

  • Drought impacts monitoring system with impacts database, analysis tools and practices

  • Determination of drought triggers: threshold values of an indicator that distinguish drought magnitude and determine when management actions should begin and end

    • PDI or USDM triggers result in actions taken by state and local managers; generally locally/regionally determined, not national

    • In the US, Army Corps of Engineers may respond to triggers


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Context and pre-conditions: GUI development, GEOSS portal integration

  • Data discovery tools: portal (GUI) & clearinghouse (harvester)

    • For community data sources (metadata) to be harvestable, metadata server needs to support CSW

    • If community data sources support standard WMS, WCS, WFS, SOS, etc. services, the portal can preview and access the actual datasets; otherwise it will simply refer user to remote server

  • Data viewer client: within the portal, Google Earth, etc.

  • Drought research community “adopts” the portal

    • Community-managed web UI – wiki, journals, pre-defined and derived maps

    • Build and save projects; add new data as it emerges

    • Help support cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary applications


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Context and pre-conditions:Institutional coordination

WMO, CEOS, IGOS/IGWCO, GCOS, GEWEX

NIDIS (US National Integrated Drought Information System)

NADM, USDM (N.American/US Drought Monitor)

FEWS (Famine Early Warning Sysem)

Drought Management Center of Southeastern Europe

HARON (Hydrological Applications and Run-Off Network)

Plus many others as potential collaborators – see National Drought Mitigation Center International Activities


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Coordination with GEOSS tasks

WA-08-01 – Integration of In-situ and Satellite Data for Water Cycle Monitoring

GEO UIC coordination?


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2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

Drought Side Meeting • 29-Nov-2007

  • Introduction

  • Mark Myers, Director, USGS

  • North American Drought Monitor and NIDIS

  • - Jay Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC

  • FEWS NET

  • - Tamuka Magadzire, FEWS NET Regional Scientist for Southern Africa

  • Drought Management Center for Southeastern Europe

  • Silvo Zlebir, Director, Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia

  • SERVIR

  • - Carrie Stokes, USAID

  • ~40 people from 19 countries

  • Argentina

  • Australia

  • - Austria

  • Belgium

  • - Botswana

  • - Canada

  • - France

  • Germany

  • Honduras

  • - Japan

  • Kenya

  • Korea

  • Netherlands

  • Norway

  • - Panama

  • Slovenia

  • South Africa

  • - United Kingdom

  • - USA


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2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

United States Proposal

  • Develop a Global Drought Early Warning System within the coming decade to provide:

    • A system of systems for data & information sharing, communication, & capacity building to take on the growing worldwide threat of drought

    • Regular drought warning assessments issued as frequently as possible with increased frequency during a crisis


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2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

  • Recommended approach to achieving long-term objective

    • Initially address by expanding regional activities

      • Begin with areas strongly impacted by ENSO (Americas and Pacific: North and South America, Australia)

  • Near-term Priorities

    • Develop a Task within the GEO Work Plan

    • May/Jun 08: Convene a meeting of technical leadership to identify needs and priorities (Hosted by the IDEA Center in Hawaii)

      • Identify needs as well as existing or potential capacities across nations

      • Establish initial approaches and identify one or more fundamental aspects to address first


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Prerequisites for global drought preparedness

Must first assess each national participant’s:

  • Current drought monitoring capabilities and practices

  • Observational data network activities, capabilities, and resources

  • Drought forecasting

  • Drought response

  • Current potential level of participation in global network

  • What is needed for them to reach their desired level of participation

    • May have different levels of participation depending on variations in countries’ capabilities and desires


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Scenario Steps (simplified)

  • Agency research staff tasked and capable to forecast seasonal & annual precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, drought

  • Research staff requests data from GEOSS portal

  • Research results show region will have severe drought

  • Assess physical and economic risks and impacts of drought, identify needed actions

  • Deliver services, assistance, mitigation (track results)

  • Notify related stakeholders regarding data and results


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Supporting data and other resources - 1

US NIDIS Portal, http://www.drought.gov

US NIDIS, The National Integrated Drought Information System Implementation Plan, June 2007, http://www.drought.gov/pdf/NIDIS-IPFinal-June07.pdf

US NIDIS, Managing Drought: A roadmap for change in the United States, July 2007 http://geosociety.org/meetings/06drought/roadmap.pdf

US National Drought Monitoring Center, Univ Nebraska, Lincolnhttp://drought.unl.edu/monitor/tools.htm


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Supporting data and other resources - 2

Famine Early Warning System, http://www.fews.net/

IGOS Water Theme, http://www.igospartners.org/Water.htm

IGWCO, Conceptual Framework for a Hydrological Applications and Run-Off Network (HARON), March 2007 http://www.gewex.org/IGWCO/9.4_IGWCO_HARON.pdf

GCOS, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php?name=geoss

GEWEX, http://www.gewex.org/

UN FAO, Water Development and Management Unit,  http://www.fao.org/nr/water/infores_databases_climwat.html


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Next Steps

  • Work with likely participants to identify case studies

    • NIDIS Portal team working on Southeast US drought response (near term)

    • Broader drought science community trying to build capacity among developing countries & islands in Pacific Basin to support DEWS (longer term)

    • Others…?


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