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Project Review Meeting Phase I – Strategic Analyses of the River Linking Project

Project Review Meeting Phase I – Strategic Analyses of the River Linking Project. IWMI Delhi. PHASE. ACTIVITIES. OUTPUT. Phase I 9 Months. 11 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop I.

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Project Review Meeting Phase I – Strategic Analyses of the River Linking Project

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  1. Project Review MeetingPhase I – Strategic Analyses of the River Linking Project IWMI Delhi

  2. PHASE ACTIVITIES OUTPUT Phase I 9 Months 11 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop I A Sharp, Well-Rounded Prognosis of India’s Water Future - 2025/2050 & of the Water Challenge Facing the Nation Phase II 15 Months Phase II A Phase II B Phase II A Phase II B 16 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop II 7 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop III How adequate, complete and cost-effective a response is the River-Linking Project to India’s Water Challenge 2050? How to maximize net social benefit of the River-Link Project Phase III 12 Months Phase III A Phase III B Phase III A Phase III A 14 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop IV 8 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop V If NRLP fails to take off, how else can India effectively meet its Water Challenge 2050? How best to put into operation the National Perspective Plan Concluding Workshop VI: Planning for a Food, Livelihoods and Water Secure India 2050 IWMI Analysis of NRLP

  3. NCIWRD Projections (High demand)

  4. Overview • Inception Workshop in April 2005 • Phase I has 11 activities • Water Availability and water accounting drivers (Dependable water supply, Potentially Utilizable water supply, Efficiency, return flows, flows to swamps etc.) by A. D. Mohile, BK Anand • Environmental water demand by Vladimir Smakhtin, …. • Population Growth, Urbanization, Domestic Water Demand by Aslam Mahmood and Amitabh Kundu • Regional Economic Growth, Industrial and Service sector water demand by KV Raju, Deshpande

  5. Overview 5. Changing Consumption patterns by Sanjive Phansalkar, OP Singh… • National food Security scenarios (WTO Agriculture agreement, Internal Agriculture policy Impacts) by Charlotte de Fraiture, RPS Malik, Shilp Verma…. • Future of Rural Livelihood byAnik Bhaduri, Amrita … • Future of Irrigation and Agricultureby Anik Bhaduri, UA, TS, Amrita • Potential in Rainfed Agriculture by Bharat Sharma, KPR Vittal

  6. Overview 10. Opportunities for Increasing Canal Water Productivity by Dinesh Kumar, KP Palainisamy 11. Potential Spread of Water Saving Technologies by Dinesh Kumar, Samad, Bharat 12. Potential in Water Harvesting by Dinesh Kumar, Bharat, KPR VIttal • Intensification of Groundwater use and Environmental Impacts by Sundar Krishnan 14. Water Futures Scenarios and synthesis by Upali Amarasinghe, Tushaar Shah, Shilp Verma

  7. Overview • Synthesis by March 2006 • Phase I completion workshop at the ITP meeting in March 8-10, 2006 • Start Phase II activities in April 2006 • So we, need outputs of Phase I by January 31st, 2006

  8. Purpose of the meeting • To assess where we are now? • Discuss progress against the TOR • Identify the constraints/gaps • Discuss the way forward

  9. 1. Water Availability of River Basins - Issues

  10. Water Supply Dependable water resources (at P75) Reservoir storage and evaporative fractions Return flows to groundwater and surface PUWR (Surface, groundwater, overlap) Water demand and accounting drivers Irrigation efficiency Consumptive use factors in dom & ind. Withdrawals Non-process evaporative fractions (flows to swamps, sinks) Implications on water supply/accounting drivers due to Water pricing Climate change Waste lands & increasing net sown area 1. Water Availability of River Basins - Issues

  11. 1. Water Availability of River Basins - Issues Outputs • Dependable RWR, PUWR estimates (surface water, groundwater,overlap) of river basins • Future scenarios of water demand drivers (irri. efficiency, consumptiv use factors, return flows, flows to swamps and sinks) of river basins • Draft paper (s)

  12. 2. Environmental Water Demand of Indian River Basins Scope • Assess present state of river ecologies/eco system services • Methodology and estimates of environmental water demand of Indian river basins • Implications of EWD estimates due to • Hydrological variability • Changes in Water regimes • Changes in income, life styles, environmental awareness • Cultural and traditional Values

  13. 2. Environmental Water Demand of Indian River Basins Outputs – Research paper • Methodology • EWD estimates • Future scenarios

  14. 3. Population Projections ?? i – Visaria & Visaria projections < UN Medium projections ii- New Population projections ?? could be 40 million less than NCIWRD projections

  15. 3. Population Projections

  16. NCIWRD projections for State/Districts Based on 1991 populations estimates NCIWRD projections for river basins Divided proportionate to geographical area of districts IWMI Projections for States/Districts Use 2001 census as base year Use 2001 state wise fertility tables Use 1991-2001 growth rates to estimate district populations IWMI projections for river basins Locate class I cities in basins Distribute the rest of population based on Net Sown Area (Use IWMI Land use Land cover map) 3. Population projections

  17. 3. Population projections Output • Total Population projections • Incorporate state wise life tables for state projections • Project State/District wise Total/Urban Population

  18. 4. Domestic Water Demand • NCIWRD Norms • 220 lpcd (or 80 m3/pc/year) in urban areas • 150 lpcd (or 50 m3 /pc/year) in rural areas

  19. 4. Domestic Water Demand

  20. 4. Domestic Water Demand

  21. 4. Domestic Water Demand

  22. 4. Domestic Water Demand

  23. 4. Domestic Water Demand Output • Urban population growth projections (Class I-VI cities) • Domestic water demand

  24. 4. Regional Economic Growth

  25. Issues Growth of state level total and sector wise GDP Milestones State GDP projections 4. Regional Economic Growth

  26. 5. Industrial Sector Water Demand

  27. 5. Industrial Sector Water Demand

  28. Issues Type of industries Unit water demand Future growth patterns Water saving technologies Water pricing Investment in recycling Milestones Regional (State level) industrial activities and water consumption patterns Regional industrial growth and water demand scenarios 5. Industrial Sector Water Demand

  29. Issues Service sector activities (includes navigation and hydropower) and water demand at present Future growth Water saving technologies Water pricing Milestones Regional service sector activities and current water demand Future service sector water demand scenarios 6. Service Sector Water Demand

  30. Irrigation Water Demand Major drivers • National self sufficiency • Adequate livelihood and food security for rural people who are dependent on food grain production • Grain orientation in agriculture (Grain area/ gross sown area) • Grain productivity growth • Groundwater irrigation expansion • Irrigation efficiency growth

  31. 7. Grain demand - Changing Consumption patterns

  32. 7. Changing Consumption patterns

  33. 7. Changing Consumption patterns

  34. Issues Regional differences of consumption patterns with respect to Income and prices Life styles (more meat, diary, poultry products) Feed conversion ratios Livestock water demand Outputs/Milestones Regional scenarios of food consumptions patterns Feed demand 7. Changing Consumption patterns

  35. 7. National Food Security Issues • WTO agreement of Agriculture on future self sufficiency targets • Agriculture policy and virtual trade: Between basins? • Subsistence to market oriented crops- To which crops and to what extent?

  36. 7. National Food Security

  37. 7. National Food Security Outputs • Crops and livestock surplus/deficit scenarios from WATERSIM • Implications on agriculture demand drivers

  38. 8. Future of Irrigation and Agriculture

  39. 8. Future of Irrigation and Agriculture

  40. 8. Future of Agriculture What happened • Providing adequate livelihood to agriculture dependent population, and national self sufficiency of grains were the major drivers of irrigation area expansion (vertical and horizontal) • Irrigation contributed much of the crop area gross sown area expansion • Irrigation contributed to much of the crop productivity growth (directly and indirectly through better input use) Recent trends • Decreasing Agriculture dependent population • Decreasing share of grain area • Groundwater expansion

  41. 8. Future of Agriculture

  42. 8. Future of Agriculture

  43. 8. Future of Agriculture

  44. Issues Decreasing Agriculture dependent population Decreasing share of grain orientation Groundwater expansion Surface irrigated area Outputs Crop yield growth Cropping intensity growth Irrigated area growth Irrigation intensity growth 8. Future of Irrigation and Agriculture

  45. 8. Future of Agriculture

  46. 8. Future of Agriculture • Hypothesis: Cropping, Irrigation, rainfed intensities will increase and will be major drivers of gross irrigated and sown area expansion • Crop diversification • Less water intensive crops • Groundwater expansion • Better water management

  47. Project Review Meeting Phase I Strategic Analysis of River Linking Project End of Day One

  48. Thank You

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