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Andrew Lippman, MIT Media Lab lip@mit March, 2005

Viral Innovation. Andrew Lippman, MIT Media Lab lip@mit.edu March, 2005. Waves. Abrupt change resulting from the simultaneous action of disparate elements that get us over hurdles no joint venture or individual can leap.

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Andrew Lippman, MIT Media Lab lip@mit March, 2005

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  1. Viral Innovation Andrew Lippman, MIT Media Lab lip@mit.edu March, 2005

  2. Waves Abrupt change resulting from the simultaneous action of disparate elements that get us over hurdles no joint venture or individual can leap. Solves the “You can’t get there from problem” through implicit (or competitive) cooperation. Acute costs Diffuse benefits

  3. Waves Communications: ViralHuman Augmentation: BionicsFabrication: Molecules to cities

  4. Being Digital (1995) HDTV Digital Broadcast DBS Same Things Better vs Utterly New TiVo Napster Blogs Wikis Waves make changes

  5. Being Wireless (2002) PCS Satellite Radio 802.11 Same Things Better vs Utterly New (?) M2M Mobile Media Ambience and position Open Applications

  6. Viral Radio Viral radio is scalable, incremental, and value-adding. Intelligence is at the edges, costs are low, systems are agile.

  7. Digital Radio = Intelligent Radio Interference is a legal idea, not a physical one More radios means more communications, not less More radios mean less power, not more Buildings and barriers help, rather than hurt Digital radio reverses 85 years of design

  8. Digital Radio = Intelligent Radio There are no receivers (transmitting costs less) There are no channels When in doubt, add radios Unlicensed: Favors property owner vs license holder Open radio lets users become inventors

  9. Cells Without Towers

  10. Radio Magic

  11. Radio Magic

  12. Viral Radio (2005) 3G 2.5G 802.11 Same Things Better vs Utterly New Hotspots/Warchalking Mesh/Adhoc Skype phones Transparent

  13. Being Viral (2005) Centralized Vertical (Rigid) Slow Same Things Better vs Utterly New Scalable Incremental Value-adding Transparent

  14. Being Viral (2005) Centralized Vertical (Rigid) Slow Same Things Better vs Utterly New Grassroots Agile Low-risk Transparent

  15. “Virality Index” Scalability Incremental Value-adding From home to market Unreliability can be a feature Asynchrony can be a feature

  16. 802.11(HiFi) 2002: Mayhem Protocol 2003: Local Intelligence Lippman, Reed, Bletsas, Christakos, Vyzovitis, Cooley, Li

  17. Viral Possibilities Education: The learners are the innovators, infrastructure makes the system rigid Communications: The intelligence is now in the phones, will the carriers be marginalized? Healthcare: Patients as a group already are more up-to-date than their physician; the average psychologist reads no more than one journal per month Nations gain first-world status by focus and central planning; they become leaders by diffused imagination

  18. Lippman’s Helix Viral: Optimized for innovationLow riskAgility Legitimate: EconomicCentralized(Scalable) After Charles Fine

  19. Going Legitimate When?Base Techs Viral: Optimized for innovationLow riskAgility Legitimate: EconomicCentralized(Scalable) The magic is when technology is in sync with society

  20. Surprises and speeds E-BaySMSSkype Long lead time Ultra-Rapid takeup

  21. SMS Message Volume 300 bil 200 bil Other countries such as US, developing countries 150 bil China 100 bil 50 bil Intercarrier capability 1 bil 1998 2001 2002 2003

  22. Blackberry Growth 1 mil 500,000 CDMA, iDen 100,000 GPRS integration E-mail Access 50,000 1999 2001 2002 2003 This is a device!

  23. Usage of IM applications AOL buys ICQ and creates AIM # of users YTalk allows multi-party messaging Skype iChat Creation of talk ICQ 1973 1980 1990 1996 1998 2001 2003

  24. Skype • Peer-to-peer VoIP application • First released October 2003 • 7 million users after one year, 25 million today • Allows instant messaging as well as voice calls • Closed architecture, but viral adoption

  25. Waves Communications: ViralHuman Augmentation: BionicsFabrication: Molecules to cities

  26. Fabrication Size matters

  27. Bionics 10-X: making you ten times faster, smarter…

  28. Three Parts Viral Ideas Speed of change Far Horizons Innovation today happens at the edges It happens surprisingly fast Ideas that you can see and breakthroughs you can’t predict

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