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Why E/3?. Dr. Kelly Kissock Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department of Renewable and Clean Energy University of Dayton. What on Earth Are These?. World Energy Use. World Economic Output. World Population. Converting Heat to Work. Since pre-history we knew how to:

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Why e 3

Why E/3?

Dr. Kelly Kissock

Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

Department of Renewable and Clean Energy

University of Dayton


Why e 3

What on Earth Are These?

World Energy Use

World Economic Output

World Population


Converting heat to work
Converting Heat to Work

Since pre-history we knew how to:

Work

Heat

Industrial Revolution to:

Work

Heat


Newcomen s steam engine 1712
Newcomen’s Steam Engine~1712


Revolutionary change
Revolutionary Change

  • Transforms economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90%

  • Transforms place: cities grow from 5% to 50%

  • Transforms family: parents leave home to work

  • Redimensions world: steam ship and railroad

  • Technology and population explode


Economic explosion
Economic Explosion

  • From 1700-2000, per capita US/Europe income grows from $600 to $18,000 per year

  • Increases 30x!


Energy revolution creates modern world
Energy Revolution Creates Modern World



We ve come a long way
We’ve Come a Long Way…

  • Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5%

  • Watt’s steam engine: 1%

  • Gasoline engines: 30%

  • Coal Rankine cycles: 35%

  • Turbines: 40%

  • Diesel engines: 50%

  • Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines: 60%


But energy conversion largely unchanged
But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged…

1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels

2. Employ combustion to release heat

CH4+2 (O2) = CO2+2 (H20)

3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion


84 of world energy from fossil fuels

In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels

Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels


Resource constraints
Resource Constraints

M. King Hubbert


Hubbert s 1956 prediction us oil production will peak in 1973
Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction: US Oil Production Will Peak in 1973


Actual u s oil production peaks in 1972
Actual U.S. Oil Production (Peaks in 1972)

Source: www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html


Hubbert s 1956 prediction world oil production will peak in 2000
Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:World Oil Production Will Peak in 2000


Cambell s world oil peak
Cambell’s World Oil Peak



World oil near peak production
World Oil Near Peak Production

Peak production = 2015

Based on 1,800 BB “World Oil Resources’, WRI 1994



Extreme oil
Extreme Oil

“Oil sands and offshore drilling are both symptoms of the same problem: We’re running out of easy oil.”

Simon Dyer


Canada s oil sands
Canada’s Oil Sands

  • Total resource ~ Saudi Arabia; #1 source of imported oil for US (22%)

  • GHG production from processing 400% greater than domestic oil, but well-to-wheel increase 5% - 15% greater

  • Surface mining (20%):

    • Strip earth’s surface for black goo called bitumen; 2 tons of sand / barrel oil

    • 1 barrel bitumen generates 500 gallons of liquid tailings

    • Tailing ponds cover 50 square miles; 3 million gallons/day leak into surrounding watershed

    • 1,600 waterbirds died in a single tailing pond

  • In situ mining (80%):

    • Inject natural gas-heated steam into wells to drive bitumen to surface

    • Blend bitumen with natural gas liquids to transport and process


Deep water drilling
Deep Water Drilling

  • Gulf of Mexico

    • 6,000 wells

    • Progressively deeper water

    • Deepwater Horizon: 5,000 ft water

Source: http://revolutionaryfrontlines.files.wordpress.com/

  • Brazil’s Tupi Field:

  • 7,200 ft water + 15,000 ft sandstone/rock salt

  • $1 million/day to operate platform

  • “The only political fight in Brazil is over how to spend its future oil bounty and who gets the lions share.”

Source: http://coto2.files.wordpress.com/


World natural gas near peak production
World Natural GasNear Peak Production

Peak production = 2018

Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal, IEA 2004


World coal peak production 2050
World CoalPeak Production 2050?

Peak production = 2060

Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004


Consequences of peak fuel
Consequences of Peak Fuel

  • Rising demand and falling supply rapidly increases fuel prices

  • Rising fuel prices reduce expendable income and cause recessions

  • Rising fuel prices drain fuel importing economies and increase trade deficits

  • Competition for dwindling supply increase national security risks

  • Rising fuel prices support undemocratic regimes (Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)


Environmental perspective
Environmental Perspective

“Using energy in today’s ways leads

to more environmental damage than

any other peaceful human activity.”

The Economist, 1990.



Global co 2 concentration
Global CO2 Concentration

  • Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii

  • 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm


Coincident global warming
Coincident Global Warming

Hansen, J., “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with Global Climate?”, American Geophysical Union, 2005.


Even n 2 0 2 and odd co 2 ch 4 atmospheric molecules
Even (N2 02) and Odd (CO2 CH4) Atmospheric Molecules

“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989


Greenhouse gas trends
Greenhouse Gas Trends

Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change, 2001,

“Summary for Policymakers”


Historical temperature and co 2 correlation
Historical Temperature and CO2 Correlation

“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989


Today s concentrations off the chart
Today’s Concentrations “Off the Chart”

Hansen, J., 2005, “A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?”, Climatic Change, Vol. 68, No. 3., 2005, Pages 269-279.


Result earth quickly warming
Result: Earth Quickly Warming

Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research


Warming most pronounced at poles
Warming Most Pronounced At Poles

“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989




And the list goes on
And the List Goes On…

  • Drought

  • Severe weather

  • Mass extinctions (30% of species lose range)

  • Accelerating non-linear irreversible process

    • Methane release from thawing “perma-frost”

    • Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…


Debate
Debate?

  • Consensus view from:

    • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    • Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)

    • Every G8 ‘National Academy of Science’

  • Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004):

    • All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 – 2004 with key words “climate change”.

    • Found 983 papers

    • NONE disagreed with consensus position


Time lags amplify effects
Time Lags Amplify Effects

  • Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary, 2001


Linear model of production
Linear Model of Production

Fossil Fuel Resources

Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up

Atmosphere

Fossil Fuel

Energy

CO2 &

Pollution

Energy Out

Economy


Ecological model of production
Ecological Model of Production

Biological

Technical


Transition to sustainability is central challenge of 21 st century
Transition to Sustainability IsCentral Challenge of 21st Century

21st century

Industrial revolution

Pre-industrial revolution

Time

Today


Oecd non oecd contributions
OECD / Non-OECD Contributions

Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006


Us carbon stabilization scenario nrdc
US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (NRDC)

Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006


Us carbon stabilization scenario ases
US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (ASES)

Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007




Why e 3

US Energy Efficiency

= 77% of Demand for New Energy Services



Energy efficient buildings initiatives
Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives

  • American Institute of Architects (AIA) Sustainability 2030

    • 50% CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010

    • Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by 2030.

    • Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction

  • U.S. Green Building Council LEED Certification:

    • 50% reduction in site energy use for base LEED

    • 65% Silver

    • 80% Gold

    • 100% Platinum

  • ASHRAE

    • Standard 90.1-2010: 30% less energy than 90.1-2004

    • Standard 90.1-2020: guidance for net zero site energy use

  • U.S. Department of Energy

    • All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025


University of dayton renewable and clean energy program
University of Dayton: Renewable and Clean Energy Program

  • Energy Efficiency

    • Energy Efficient Buildings

    • Energy Efficient Manufacturing

    • Ground Source Heat Pumps

    • Design of Thermal Systems

    • Building Energy Informatics

  • Renewable Energy

    • Renewable Energy Systems

    • Solar Energy Engineering

    • Wind Energy Engineering

    • Environmental Sustainability


Same week as deep horizon sank
Same Week as “Deep Horizon” Sank

  • U.S. approves first off-shore wind farm off Cape Cod

  • Virginia off-shore wind resource could power 750,000 homes, forever

Source: Audubon, 10-11/2010


In fact
In Fact:

  • Atlantic off-shore wind potential = 70% of U.S. electricity

  • North Dakota is “Saudi Arabia” of wind

  • 10 automakers launch plug-in hybrids by 2012

Source: www.greenzer.com



Doing the math world
Doing the Math: World

  • C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E

  • Business as usual case 2000-2050

    • Pop increases by 1.5x

    • $/Pop increases by 4x

    • E/$ constant

    • C/E constant

    • C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 6 C2000

  • Carbon stabilization case

    • C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x (E/$) / 3 x (C/E) / 2 = C2000

    • 3x improvement in energy efficiency

    • 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy

  • 50% carbon reduction case

    • 6x improvement in energy efficiency

    • 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy


Eeb course goals
EEB Course Goals

Learn how to design buildings that are:

  • Functional (traditional engineering course)

  • Economic (better engineering course)

  • Improve comfort / productivity (enlightened engineering course)

  • E/3 (our course)




What to do
What to do?

Addressing these global problems of resource and environmental constraints on the foundation of our modern economy will no doubt require:

  • Social reform

  • Economic reform

  • Political reform

  • Technological innovation


Doing the math us
Doing the Math: US

  • C = Pop x $/Pop x C/$ x E/$ x C/E

  • Business as usual case 2000-2050

    • Pop grows at 1% from 275M to 450M is increase of 1.6

    • $/Pop grows at 2% is increase of 2.7

    • E/$ constant

    • C/E constant

    • C2050 = 1.6 Pop x 2.7 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 4.3 C2000

  • Carbon stabilization case: C2050 = 0.5 C2000

    • C2050 = 1.6 Pop x 2.7 $/Pop x (E/$) / 4.3 x (C/E) / 2 = 0.5 C2000

  • Continued development requires:

    • Factor 4 increase in energy efficiency

    • Factor 2 reduction in carbon intensity of energy


Stabilization wedges
Stabilization Wedges

  • Atmospheric CO2 concentration

    • Pre-industrial = 280 ppm

    • Current = 380 ppm

    • Best case target = stabilize at 500 ppm in 2050

      • (1 C above 2000 temperature)

  • Stabilizing at 500 ppm by 2050:

    • World: C emissions constant at 7 GtC/yr (BAU = 14 GtC/yr)

    • US: C emissions reduced 50% to 0.7 GtC/yr (BAU = 2.7 GtC/yr)

  • Possible by realizing “wedges”


World carbon stabilization scenario
World Carbon Stabilization Scenario

Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006


Linear model of production1
Linear Model of Production

Fossil Fuel Resources

Energy Resources Becoming Increasingly Scarce

Fossil Fuel

Energy

Economy


Cost of electricity resources
Cost of Electricity Resources

Source: Elliott, R.N., “America’s Energy Straightjacket”, ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, 2007.


U s co 2 emissions 6 gt yr can reduce 1 3 gt yr at negative cost
U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost

Source: Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March


Remarkably

Energy Efficiency

Increases business competitiveness

Increase resource availability

Increases environmental health

Energy Efficiency is

THE PATH TO THE NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT ECONOMY

Remarkably


Government programs
Government Programs

  • U.S. Department of Energy

    • Energy audits

      • Whole plant energy audits by universities for mid-sized manufacturers

      • Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump energy audits for large manufactures

    • Energy system software and best practice case studies

  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

    • E3 energy, waste and productivity audits

  • Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020

    • DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient equipment and retrofits.


International standards
International Standards

ISO Standards

  • 9001 Quality

  • 14001 Environment

  • 50001 Energy

    • Requires energy management personnel and organizations within a company to determine baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency targets, identify and implement energy efficiency opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy efficiency improvements.


Cost of energy efficiency
Cost of Energy Efficiency

  • “25% of total electricity usage can be saved cost effectively, at an average of 3 cents or less per kWh.”

  • “New generation sources cost 5 cents or more per kWh, making efficiency the lowest cost electricity resource”

    Source: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy


Cost of energy efficiency1
Cost of Energy Efficiency

  • "Energy efficiency is … the cheapest and most efficient way to reduce emissions by the United States”

  • “Policymakers worldwide should make efficiency central to their efforts to reduce the emission and harmful impact of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.”

    Source: “For Now, at Least, Efficiency May Be the Best Tool for Reducing Carbon Emissions, Experts Say”, American Association for Advancement of Science, 1/2010


U s co 2 emissions 6 gt yr can reduce 1 3 gt yr at negative cost1
U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost

Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March


How it started
How it Started

  • 1976 SDGE wants to build new nuclear plant to bridge gap between expected demand and supply

  • Art Rosenfeld tells Gov. Brown that energy efficiency standards on household refrigerators will save more energy than nuclear plant will generate.

  • California embarks on energy-efficiency path


California today
California Today

  • Per capita energy use fourth lowest

  • Emits half CO2 per $ as rest of U.S.

  • Generates most renewable electricity

  • Most patents and most capital invested in “cleantech” companies


Denmark story
Denmark Story

  • 1973

    • 99% of energy imported

    • 80% of economy is agricultural

  • 2009

    • Low-carbon energy-efficiency green-job economy

    • Control world wind turbine market

    • 17% of energy from renewable energy

    • Net energy exporter

    • Meet Kyoto CO2 standards

    • 3.7% unemployment

    • Trade and fiscal surplus

      Source: Arne Petersen, Ambassador of Denmark,

      Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy, 10/2009


United kingdom story
United Kingdom Story

  • Implemented

    • Regulatory framework

    • Incentives and penalties

    • 7 fold increase in renewable energy

  • “Want to be first movers..”

  • “Market is colossal”

    • Ultra low-carbon and electric vehicles

    • Carbon capture and storage for all new plants by 2020.

  • “Can and will be no return to high-carbon low-cost energy economy”

  • “Utterly confident that we will achieve 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.”

  • “Stabilize bills by increasing efficiency while prices rise”

    Source: Joan Ruddock, Energy Minister, United Kingdom,

    Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy, 10/2009



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