Model error diagnosis: One possible contribution of the PDP community to the THORPEX goals

1. Model error diagnosis: One possible contribution of the PDP community to the THORPEX goals • Thomas Jung1,2 & members of the THORPEX PDP and WGNE & Mark Rodwell • 1European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts • 2Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI)

2. Outline • Model errordiagnosis • ActivitiesfollowingthePDP/WGNE Workshop on "Diagnosis of Model Errors“ • Extratropical cyclone diagnostics • Hand-over to Mark Rodwell

3. Research that aims at understanding model errors at the process level Research that aids model development What is going wrong (descriptive)? Which regions are crucial (for certain errors)? Which processes are crucial? What is going wrong and how could this be improved? Development of diagnostic techniques What is model error diagnosis? Advisemodeldevelopers Work togetherwithmodeldevelopers

4. The PDP-WGNE workshop Workshop reportavailablefromthe THORPEX website!

5. Start joint project on the Indian Summer Monsoon Build on collaboration between ECMWF and UK Met Office Discuss ongoing research in mailing group Report progress in future meetings Start joint project on Cyclonic systems Work on refining existing techniques to understand CS Give presentation entitled Diagnosis of Cyclonic Systems at the cylone workshop in Monterey Both projects Should consider NWP and climate models Benefit from Transpose AMIP activities Develop proposals that can be put forward to WGNE Actions: „Model error diagnosis“ workshop

6. Report workshop results in upcoming meetings 26th session of WGNE (Dave Burride) Cyclone workshop in Monterey (no presentation) AWI/IUP block seminar (T. Jung, model error diagnosis) EGU Vienna 2011 (T. Jung, Relaxation diagnostics in seasonal forecasting) THORPEX European regional meeting (T. Jung, model error diagnosis) WWRP-JSC meeting in late winter 2011 (Mark Rodwell?) Publish workshop report in BAMS Chris Capella from BAMS has been contacted First response (although late) was positive Later Chris became concerned given that the workshop report has been published Chris wanted to tallk to editors (no response yet) Actions: „Model error diagnosis“ workshop

7. Impact: New convection scheme • Jung et al. (2010), QJRMS

8. Extratropical cyclone composites Mean 6-hr wind-tend 925hPa • Short-range forecasts (oldandnewconvection) • ERA-Interim period • Archivingoftendencies • Selectionof 100 mostintensewinterstorms • Compositing Z850 VDiff Dynamics Convection • Hodges and Jung, work in progress

9. Extratropical cyclone composites: New-old 6-hr T-TendDiffConv 700hPa Z850 Z500 Diff 6-hr T-TendDiffCloud 700hPa Convection

10. Work on producing extratropical cyclone composites for simulated physical processes has started. Composites for mean analysis increments have been produced (interpretation does not seem straightforward → collaboration with Mark Rodwell) Produce composites for other quanitities Ensemble spread (see also work by Simon Lang) Observation usage Considerable progress possible Diagnosis of cyclonic systems

11. Handover to Mark Rodwell

12. Thank you!