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Ch10. The Basic of Capital Budgeting

Ch10. The Basic of Capital Budgeting. Goal: To understand the advantage and disadvantage in different investment analyzing tools Tool: - Net Present Value (NPV) - Payback period - Discounted payback period - Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

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Ch10. The Basic of Capital Budgeting

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  1. Ch10. The Basic of Capital Budgeting • Goal: To understand the advantage and disadvantage in different investment analyzing tools • Tool: - Net Present Value (NPV) - Payback period - Discounted payback period - Internal Rate of Return (IRR) - Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)

  2. 1. Project classification • Replacement • Expansion of existing products • Expansion into new products or markets • Safety and/or environmental projects • 2. Types of projects • Mutually exclusive project: if one project is taken, the other will be rejected. • Independent project: projects’ cash flows are independent of one another

  3. Basic concept in criteria: To find the profitable projects to corporations or investors 3. Net Present Valuation (NPV) • Def of NPV:difference between an investment’s market value and its costs = PV of cash flow from a project – PV of the initial costs and other costs

  4. Here, Cost of capitals is used as a discount rate • Rule: acceptable if the NPV > 0. Ex) You believe the cash revenues from the fertilizer business will be $20,000 per year. And cash costs will be $14,000 per year. You will close the business in eight years with $2000 salvage value. The project costs $30000 to launch. Assume 15% discount rate. Q1) Do you think that this business should be launched?

  5. Answer: NPV = -30,000+27578 = - 2422 Therefore, it is not a good investment. Q2) What is the impact of taking this project on the stock if there are 1000 outstanding shares? Answer: loss of stock value, -2422/1000 = -2.42 per share

  6. 1) Problem of NPV: • Accurate cash flow? • Discount rate (cost of capitals)? • Market price? 4. Payback rule • Def of payback:the length of time it takes to recover our initial investment.

  7. Rule: acceptable if its calculated payback period is less than pre-specified number of years • Ex) Cash flow with the initial costs of $500. 1st year:$100, 2nd year: $200 and 3rd year: $500. Q1) How long it will take to pay back the initial cost? Answer: 2 years + 200/500 =2.4 yrs. If the cutoff period is 3 years, a project with this cash flow may be accepted

  8. 1) Disadvantages • Ignore the time value of money Ex) $30 on the second year is not the same as $30 on the third year • Arbitrary Cutoff period • Ignore cash flow beyond the cutoff period Ex) A: -100, 50, 50 B:-100, 10, 30, 70, 200 With a rule, you have to pick up “A”. But this decision ignore $200 in B.

  9. Biased against long-term projects Ex) Only accept investments within the cutoff period 2) Advantage • Easy to understand • Adjusted for uncertainty of later cash flows • Biased toward liquidity.

  10. 5. Discounted payback • Def: the length of time until the sum of the discounted cash flow is equal to the initial investment. This is a variation of payback to cover the time value problem. • Rule: acceptable if its discounted payback is less than some pre-specified number of years

  11. Ex) The initial costs are $300 with 12.5% of WACC. 1st year: $100, 2nd year: $200 and 3rd year:$300. 1) Disadvantages • Arbitrary Cutoff • Reject the positive NPV • Ignore the cash flow after the cut off • Biased against the long term projects

  12. 2) Advantages • Include the time value of money • Easy to understand • Not accept the negative NPV • Biased toward liquidity

  13. V. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Def: the discount rate that makes the NPV of investment zero. In other word, it is break-even discount rate and minimum return • Rule: acceptable if the IRR exceeds the pre-specified return (required rate of return) • How to calculate IRR: Trial and Error method or NPV profile

  14. Ex) Initial costs :$100 1st year: $60 and 2nd year:$60 0 = -100+60/(1+r)+60/((1+r)^2) Here r=13.1%. If the cutoff rate is 12%, then a project with this cash flow may be accepted

  15. 6. Comparison of NPV to IRR. 1) NPV profile Using the previous example, we are able to calculate NPV with different IRRs Rate: 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% NPV:20 11.5 4.1 -2.4 -8.3 Using this information, we are able to make a graph called “net present value profile”

  16. From the NPV profile, we indirectly realize that a point crossing X-axiom is the IRR 2)NPV rankings: comparing more than two projects’ NPV profiles - Cross rate: cost of capital at which the project’s NPVs are equal - Why the NPV profiles are crossing each other: Due to cash flows patterns

  17. 3) Independent Projects • They always have the same conclusion (acceptance or rejection) from NPV and IRR. • 4) Mutually Exclusive Projects • Two basic conditions that can cause NPV profile to cross and thus conflicts to arise between NPV and IRR

  18. - When project size (or scale) difference exist. That is, the cost of one project is larger than that of the other. - When timing differences exist. That is, timing of cash flows from the two projects differs. Any other reason of conflicts? Due to reinvestment rate

  19. NPV assume that cash flows will be reinvested at the cost of capital whereas the IRR assumes that the firm can reinvest at IRR. • The best reinvestment rate is the cost of capital • (5) Multiple IRRs • Normal cash flows: one or more cash outflows (costs) followed by a series of cash inflows. • Nonnormal cash flows: a large cash outflow during or at the end of its life. • Nonnormal cash flows may lead to multiple IRRs • Ex) Figure 11-5

  20. 7. Modified IRR. • Using the cost of capital as a reinvestment rate, recalculate IRR. • Practitioners prefer a percentage return (IRR & MIRR) to dollar amounts (NPV). • PV of costs =

  21. Ex) S company tries to launch a project. That project needs the initial outlay of $1000. It will produce a series of profits for next 4 years. (1st year: 500, 2nd year: 400, 3rd year: 300 and 4th year: 100). Its cost of capital is 10%. • What is MIRR?

  22. (1) Advantage of using MIRR over IRR • Reinvestment at the cost of capitals • Solve Multiple IRR issue • In mutually exclusive case, if the projects have same size & life, the NPV and MIRR always lead to the same decision • If the projects are of equal size but differ in lives, the MIRR will always lead to the same decision as the NPV if MIRRs are calculated using the life of longer project as the terminal year (just fill zeros for the shorter projects’ missing cash flows)

  23. If the size differ, the conflicts happen • Among the tools, NPV is the best one.

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