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Future Thinking and Deregulation in Education Hiroshima, November 6, 2006 Marc Vermeulen

Future Thinking and Deregulation in Education Hiroshima, November 6, 2006 Marc Vermeulen TiasNimbas IVA Policy Research and Consultancy. Presentation. Thinking about the future and uncertainty Deregulation and consequences A Stakeholder perspective. Dealing with unpredictables.

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Future Thinking and Deregulation in Education Hiroshima, November 6, 2006 Marc Vermeulen

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  1. Future Thinking and Deregulation in Education Hiroshima, November 6, 2006 Marc Vermeulen TiasNimbas IVA Policy Research and Consultancy

  2. Presentation • Thinking about the future and uncertainty • Deregulation and consequences • A Stakeholder perspective

  3. Dealing with unpredictables • Predict Uncertainty • React • Influence

  4. Dealing with unpredictables • Predict anticipate Uncertainty • React • Influence Quality of analysis Defines strategic capacity Role modeling

  5. Which trends ?

  6. Global + Local= GloCal Trend Phenomena System and tradition

  7. Assignment I • Please write down 10 important developments influencing Japanese schools • Rank them in the grid predict vs dynamics • Conclusions?

  8. Dynamics versus prediction

  9. OECD scenarios 2001 DE-SCHOOLING Learning Networks and the Network Society Extending the Market Model STATUS QUO Bureaucratic School Systems Teacher exodus 'meltdown' RE-SCHOOLING Schools as Core Social Centres Schools as Focused Learning Organisations

  10. Thinking scenarios Time scenario a Present scenario b scenario c scenario d • Analyses: • Path dependency • early-warning

  11. if man defines a situation as real, it will be real in its consequences (thomastheorema)

  12. Stakeholders analyses

  13. Friends or enemies

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