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British Council. Indigenous adaptation to the impact of climate change in West African forests. By Onyekuru N. Anthony Supervisor: Dr.Rob Marchant Environment Department University of York UK. Presented at the Environment Department Postgraduate Conference, 23 - 24 Feb, 2012.

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indigenous adaptation to the impact of climate change in west african forests

British Council

Indigenous adaptation to the impact of climate change in West African forests

By

Onyekuru N. Anthony

Supervisor: Dr.Rob Marchant

Environment Department

University of York

UK

Presented at the Environment Department Postgraduate Conference, 23 - 24 Feb, 2012

slide2

INTRODUCTION

When will the next rain come?

One of the greatest challenges in the 21st century is the threat from climate change.

The developing World, especially Africa, will bear the major brunt of the problem

the problem
The problem
  • African countries
    • Nigeria
    • Sudan
    • Algeria
    • Cameroon
    • South Africa
    • Morocco
    • Zaire
  • Will suffer the largest average losses (47%)
  • Nigeria suffering the highest

Mendelsohn et al (2000)

slide4
Why?
  • Already adverse climate & extreme events
  • High level of poverty
  • Dependency on climate-sensitive rain fed agriculture & natural resources – forest
  • Low levels of infrastructure and human development
objectives
Objectives
  • Determine the impact of climate change on forest resources use
  • Analyze the determinants and adoption of adaptation options
  • Determine cost effective indigenous adaptation practices for forest management
methodology
Methodology
  • West Africa has five distinct ecological zones
    • Mangrove forest
    • Rainforest (Lowland / Montane)
    • Guinea savanna (North & South - Derived)
    • Sudan Savanna
    • Sahel savanna
  • All are in Nigeria
methodology contd
Methodology………… contd
  • 500 rural households selected - Nigeria
    • Rainforest – 200
    • Mangrove – 100
    • Guinea savanna – 100
    • Sudan savanna – 50
    • Montane - 50
  • Data collect with structured questionnaire
results forest mgt structure
Results – forest mgt structure

65% - Individual ownership

78.6% - Free access

60% - Shifting cultivation

Poor management structure

results forest resources
Results – Forest resources
  • Ogbono – Irvengia gabonensis

(Bush mangoe)

  • Snails / Periwinkle
  • Bush meat
  • Timber
  • Fish
  • Cray fish
  • Firewood
results forest resources contd
Results – Forest resources …..contd
  • Firewood
  • Ogbono
  • Vegetables
  • Fruits
  • Bush meat
  • Snails
  • Medicinal plants
  • Timber
results forest resources contd1
Results – Forest resources …..contd
  • Firewood
  • Vegetable
  • Ogbono
  • Honey
  • Medicinal plants
  • Bush meat
results forest resources contd2
Results – Forest resources …..contd
  • Ogbono
  • Fodder
  • Bush meat
  • Firewood
  • Locust bean
  • Timber
results forest resources contd3
Results – Forest resources …..contd
  • Firewood
  • Timber
  • Fruits
  • Medicinal plants
  • Charcoal
  • Bush meat
  • Honey
forest contributions to h hold income
Forest contributions to h/hold income

Mean: 34%, Std. Dev 21,

Min 10%, Max 95%

Mean: 46.81%, Std. Dev.19,

Min. 10%, Max. 80%

forest contributions contd
Forest contributions……...contd

Mean: 19%, Std.Dev.141,

Min. 5%, Max.: 80%

Mean: 14.4%, Std. Dev.: 9.4,

Min.: 5%, Max.: 30%

forest contributions contd1
Forest contributions………..contd

Regional mean: 38.7579%

Mean: 31%, Std.Dev.: 22.7,

Min.: 5%, Max.: 95%

results years of forest use
Results – Years of forest use
  • Mean: 20.52 yrs
  • Std dev. 13.947
  • Min. 1
  • Max. 70

Good knowledge

of changes in the forest

changes in forest resources contd
Changes in forest resources….contd
  • Nature of changes
    • Decline in quantity and quality
    • Elimination of species
  • Causes of change
    • Climate change
    • Population increase
    • Agriculture
    • Urbanization
nature of climate change impact
Nature of Climate change impact
  • Increase in weed infestation
  • Floods and erosion
  • Erratic rainfall pattern
nature of climate change impact contd
Nature of Climate change impact ..contd
  • Floods and erosion
  • Heavy and long period of rainfall
  • Erratic rainfall
  • unusual early rains followed by weeks of dryness
nature of climate change impact contd1
Nature of Climate change impact ..contd
  • Delay in the unset of rain
  • Increase in pests
  • Loss of soil fertility
  • Increase in weed infestation
  • Drought
nature of climate change impact contd2
Nature of Climate change impact ..contd
  • Less rainfall
  • Drying up of streams/river
  • Delay in the unset of rain
  • Uncertainty in the onset of farming season
nature of climate change impact contd3
Nature of Climate change impact ..contd
  • Delay unset of rain
  • Unusual early trains followed by wks of dryness
  • Reduced harmathan
average annual rainfall pattern
Average annual rainfall pattern

Drop in rainfall

Data from Nigeria Metrological Institute

adaptation options used
Adaptation options used
  • Agro forestry
  • Water harvesting
  • Selective tree cutting
  • Avoidance of burning
  • Use of energy saving stove
  • Water shade management
  • Use of local drip irrigation
adaptation options
Adaptation options

Energy saving cook Agro forestry Water shade mgt

stove

results papers
Results - Papers
  • http://www.springerlink.com/content/j6857178j6qg5605/

Nigeria’s Response to the Impacts of Climate Change: Developing Resilient and Ethical Adaptation Options

N. A. Onyekuru and Rob Marchant

  • http://york.academia.edu/AnthonyOnyekuru/Papers/690189/CLIMATE_CHANGE_AND_RESOURCE_USE_CONFLICT_IN_WEST_AFRICA_ISSUES_FOR_CONSIDERATION
  • http://york.academia.edu/AnthonyOnyekuru/Papers/1335190/Adaptation_to_climate_change_in_Nigeria_and_West_Africa
  • Indigenous and cost effective climate change adaptation options in forest resource management among rural households in West Africa
what next
WHAT NEXT….?
  • Impact analysis
    • Ricardian model
  • Adoption decision analysis
    • Hechman 2 stage least square model
  • Determinants of adaptation options
    • Multinomial logit Model
  • Cost effective adaptation option
    • Partial budgeting analysis
appreciation

British

Council

Appreciation

Dr. Rob Marchant

The University of Nigeria