Indigenous adaptation to the impact of climate change in West African forests

1. British Council Indigenous adaptation to the impact of climate change in West African forests By Onyekuru N. Anthony Supervisor: Dr.Rob Marchant Environment Department University of York UK Presented at the Environment Department Postgraduate Conference, 23 - 24 Feb, 2012

2. INTRODUCTION When will the next rain come? One of the greatest challenges in the 21st century is the threat from climate change. The developing World, especially Africa, will bear the major brunt of the problem

3. The problem • African countries • Nigeria • Sudan • Algeria • Cameroon • South Africa • Morocco • Zaire • Will suffer the largest average losses (47%) • Nigeria suffering the highest Mendelsohn et al (2000)

4. Why? • Already adverse climate & extreme events • High level of poverty • Dependency on climate-sensitive rain fed agriculture & natural resources – forest • Low levels of infrastructure and human development

5. Objectives • Determine the impact of climate change on forest resources use • Analyze the determinants and adoption of adaptation options • Determine cost effective indigenous adaptation practices for forest management

6. Methodology • West Africa has five distinct ecological zones • Mangrove forest • Rainforest (Lowland / Montane) • Guinea savanna (North & South - Derived) • Sudan Savanna • Sahel savanna • All are in Nigeria

8. Methodology………… contd • 500 rural households selected - Nigeria • Rainforest – 200 • Mangrove – 100 • Guinea savanna – 100 • Sudan savanna – 50 • Montane - 50 • Data collect with structured questionnaire

9. Results - Descriptive

10. Results – forest mgt structure 65% - Individual ownership 78.6% - Free access 60% - Shifting cultivation Poor management structure

11. Results – Forest resources • Ogbono – Irvengia gabonensis (Bush mangoe) • Snails / Periwinkle • Bush meat • Timber • Fish • Cray fish • Firewood

12. Bush mangoe - Irvengia gabonensis

13. Results – Forest resources …..contd • Firewood • Ogbono • Vegetables • Fruits • Bush meat • Snails • Medicinal plants • Timber

14. Results – Forest resources …..contd • Firewood • Vegetable • Ogbono • Honey • Medicinal plants • Bush meat

15. Results – Forest resources …..contd • Ogbono • Fodder • Bush meat • Firewood • Locust bean • Timber

16. Results – Forest resources …..contd • Firewood • Timber • Fruits • Medicinal plants • Charcoal • Bush meat • Honey

17. Forest contributions to h/hold income Mean: 34%, Std. Dev 21, Min 10%, Max 95% Mean: 46.81%, Std. Dev.19, Min. 10%, Max. 80%

18. Forest contributions……...contd Mean: 19%, Std.Dev.141, Min. 5%, Max.: 80% Mean: 14.4%, Std. Dev.: 9.4, Min.: 5%, Max.: 30%

19. Forest contributions………..contd Regional mean: 38.7579% Mean: 31%, Std.Dev.: 22.7, Min.: 5%, Max.: 95%

20. Results – Years of forest use • Mean: 20.52 yrs • Std dev. 13.947 • Min. 1 • Max. 70 Good knowledge of changes in the forest

21. Results – Changes in forest resources

22. Changes in forest resources….contd • Nature of changes • Decline in quantity and quality • Elimination of species • Causes of change • Climate change • Population increase • Agriculture • Urbanization

23. Nature of Climate change impact • Increase in weed infestation • Floods and erosion • Erratic rainfall pattern

24. Nature of Climate change impact ..contd • Floods and erosion • Heavy and long period of rainfall • Erratic rainfall • unusual early rains followed by weeks of dryness

25. Nature of Climate change impact ..contd • Delay in the unset of rain • Increase in pests • Loss of soil fertility • Increase in weed infestation • Drought

26. Nature of Climate change impact ..contd • Less rainfall • Drying up of streams/river • Delay in the unset of rain • Uncertainty in the onset of farming season

27. Nature of Climate change impact ..contd • Delay unset of rain • Unusual early trains followed by wks of dryness • Reduced harmathan

28. Year impact began 2000 & 2001

29. Average annual rainfall pattern Drop in rainfall Data from Nigeria Metrological Institute

30. Adaptation options used • Agro forestry • Water harvesting • Selective tree cutting • Avoidance of burning • Use of energy saving stove • Water shade management • Use of local drip irrigation

31. Adaptation options Energy saving cook Agro forestry Water shade mgt stove

32. Results - Papers • http://www.springerlink.com/content/j6857178j6qg5605/ Nigeria’s Response to the Impacts of Climate Change: Developing Resilient and Ethical Adaptation Options N. A. Onyekuru and Rob Marchant • http://york.academia.edu/AnthonyOnyekuru/Papers/690189/CLIMATE_CHANGE_AND_RESOURCE_USE_CONFLICT_IN_WEST_AFRICA_ISSUES_FOR_CONSIDERATION • http://york.academia.edu/AnthonyOnyekuru/Papers/1335190/Adaptation_to_climate_change_in_Nigeria_and_West_Africa • Indigenous and cost effective climate change adaptation options in forest resource management among rural households in West Africa

33. WHAT NEXT….? • Impact analysis • Ricardian model • Adoption decision analysis • Hechman 2 stage least square model • Determinants of adaptation options • Multinomial logit Model • Cost effective adaptation option • Partial budgeting analysis

34. British Council Appreciation Dr. Rob Marchant The University of Nigeria

35. Thanks