What’s Ahead for this Winter

1. What’s Ahead for this Winter Ted Buehner Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service – Seattle/Tacoma

3. Winter Season Outlook for the Pacific Northwest:Winter 2010/2011 Acknowledgement: NWS Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.noaa.gov

4. It wasn’t me… it was El Nino

6. El Niño and “Normal Conditions”

10. La Nina Status • La Nina is expected to continue through the 2010-2011 winter season. • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are -1.0 to -3.0 below-average. • SSTs quite cool for this time of year, comparable to 1955, 1973 and 1975.

11. Niño Indices: Recent Evolution

12. Historical Trends 1982-83 1997-98 2007-08 1998-00 1988-89

13. Northwest Average Temperatures

14. Northwest Average Precipitation

15. Snowfall

16. Full Season Temperature Outlooks

17. Full Season PrecipitationOutlooks

18. In Summary • La Niña conditions are anticipated to increase to moderate and perhaps strong, and are expected to continue through the cool season • Can expect this Winter to be (on average): • Temperature: Good odds at below normal conditions • Precipitation: increased odds of wetter than normal conditions • Snowpack:Quite good odds for an above normal mountain snowpack • Expect a much more active winter than last winter • Can always expect some significant winter weather in the Pacific Northwest!

19. Significant Winter Weather Breakdown by ENSO Phase • Major floods • ENSO neutral • La Niña (e.g.: 1964-65, 1995-96 and 2007-08) • El Niño • Major wind storms • La Niña(e.g.: 1995-96, 1998-99, 2007-08) • ENSO neutral • El Niño • Lowland snow events • La Niña (e.g.: 1949-50, 1955-56, 1964-65, 2008-09) • ENSO neutral • El Niño  Not all winters produce significant weather, yet our history shows….

20. Significant Winter Weather Breakdown by ENSO Phase • Major floods • ENSO neutral • La Niña (e.g.: 1964-65, 1995-96 and 2007-08) • El Niño • Major wind storms • La Niña(e.g.: 1995-96, 1998-99, 2007-08) • ENSO neutral • El Niño • Lowland snow events • La Niña (e.g.: 1949-50, 1955-56, 1964-65, 2008-09) • ENSO neutral • El Niño  Not all winters produce significant weather, yet our history shows….

21. And if the forecast does not bear out…….

22. New or Revised NWS Products and Services

23. Social Impacts of Weather • What are the impacts of: • High Wind • Floods • Winter Storms • Heat • Landslides and more • Improving decision support for community leaders • High Impact Weather Events • Planning in Advance • Public Safety • Protecting / Mitigating Impacts to Property • Maintaining / Enhancing Commerce • Proactive steps • Forecast Discussions 4 times per day • Weather Outlooks / Watches / Warnings / Statements • On-line Weather Briefings • Is there more?Your input desired

24. GoToMeeting On-Line Weather Briefings • Virtual and Interactive on-line weather briefings • Audio provided by a toll-free conf call line • For Key Decision Makers • Conducted prior to and through anticipated ‘high-impact’ weather events • Notification of briefings via email and NWSChat • Secure control over desktop sharing

25. How are Spotter Reports Used? • NWS Warning Program • “Ground Truth” • Reinforce current warning messages • Basis and Verification of weather warnings and advisories • Transmitted to….. • Media (TV, radio, newspapers, Internet) • Local Emergency Management Staff

26. CoCoRaHSCommunity Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow network • Volunteers Report Precipitation On-Line. Community and Citizen Involvement! • Rain , Hail , Snow • Daily & Event Driven Reports • Interactive Web site:www.cocorahs.org • Adds Greater Precipitation Report Density Across WA • WANTED: (observer/square mile) • Currently just over 740 • Training

27. Fully Localized Atmospheric Research EnvironmentFLARE Desktop Weather Display System • 5 separate panels • Observational data • Local zone forecasts • Icons • Ticker • Looping images • Warning display • - Customize to your needs • Great for Kiosks, EOCs,desktops, etc Available NOW! Application http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/ssd/flare.msi Documentation http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/ssd/index-flare.html

28. NWS Chat • Chat Room • Real-time collaboration with operational • meteorologists • NWS Chat in full operation nationwide • Join us for collaboration https://nwschat.weather.gov

29. NWS Chat • Chat Room • Multiple Chat Rooms • NWS BOT • Hyperlink to any warning product

30. Bonus Feature – NWS BOT • NWS BOT • Hyperlink to any warning product

31. NWS Chat BOT

32. NWS Chat How do I get started? Request account for NWS Partners at: https://nwschat.weather.gov/create.php login (e.g., EM-John.doe) password Download and install Pidgin IM client http://www.pidgin.im/ Use pidgin v2.7.3 Start Chatting

33. weather.gov/seattle Nationwide - weather.gov

34. Area Forecast Discussion AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA220 AM PDT WED SEP 3 2008.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONTHROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE NEXT FEWDAYS...WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.&&.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILLREMAIN IN A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS THE COURTESY OFHIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTHE GREAT PLAINS. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OFKEEPING THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THIS MORNINGTHE KOTX RADAR IS STILL PICKING UP SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS MYIDAHO ZONES AS THE FAST MOVING TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. EXPECTTHESE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSVERSE THENORTHWEST FLOW. THE FIRST...THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITHOROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE IN THEAFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH THEBEST MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 700 MB. LOW END POPS WERE PUT IN THEFAVORED LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE SPRINKLES WERE KEPT IN THE FORECASTACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH SUNNYCONDITIONS AND BUILDING HEIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP 2-4DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH FOR TODAY WILL STILL BE 5DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASINGLYNORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE WIND DOWN NORTH-SOUTHVALLEYS...THE OKANOGAN VALLEY...KETTLE RIVER AND PURCELL TRENCH BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.FOR TONIGHT ANY LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED EAST ANDOUT OF THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES...DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDSWILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO TEMPS WERE BUMPED DOWNA FEW DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING. /TOBINTHURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE FAR EASTERNFRINGE OF AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE RIDGE WITH THE AXIS PLACEMENT REMAININGOFF THE COAST MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A NUISANCE RIPPLE OR TWO TO DROPDOWN AND BRING THE OCCASIONAL BRIEF SPRINKLE TO LOCATIONSPRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLYTHE NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY MIX DOWN FROMTIME TO TIME AND MASK OVER THE TYPICAL DIURNAL SURFACE CONVECTIVEWINDS. THE RIDGE SHOWS ENOUGH AMPLIFICATION TO PUSH THE NORTHWESTFLOW FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST TO STOP INCLUDING POPSAND TRACE WEATHER DEPICTION FROM ABOUT SUNDAY ON INTO TUESDAY ANDSURFACE WINDS MAY START TO TREND TOWARD THE USUAL DIURNALCONVECTIVE WIND TYPE. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY INTERVALREMAINS VALID WITH THIS RIDGE AMPLIFICATION SCENARIO. /PELATTI&&.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAYWITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION. A FEWMOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGHSUNSET. && Issued by all NWS Offices: Issued 4 times per day around: 3 AM 9 AM 3 PM 9 PM Oregon Washington Idaho

35. Enhanced AFD from Seattle These are hypertext links to images that show the weather pattern. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA300 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2008 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. UNSTABLE AIR WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. A TRANSITION TO A COOLER REGIME WILL GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY....AS ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES COOLER MARINE AIR INLAND BY MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED A STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OFFSHORE ALONG 150W (image). THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED WEAKLY OFFSHORE AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. OF COURSE THIS IS THE CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR HOT SUMMER WEATHER IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...AND IT WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE HOT SPELL WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY TODAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB ABOVE 590 DAM AND THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND (image). WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...BUT SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW AND THEY SHOULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE THE RECORD AT SEATAC IS ONLY 88. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER YET AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL REALLY WARM UP BETWEEN TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 20S (image).SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE SERIES...AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FALL SLIGHTLY...BUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SLIGHTLY AND...MOST IMPORTANT...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE INTERIOR AND MINIMIZE THE NORTHERLIES (image). WE ALSO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL PAN OUT. BUT IT WAS ONLY INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST 12 HOURS AGO...SO I WILL LEAVE IT TO THE DAY SHIFT TO CONSIDER IT FURTHER AND AVOID BACKTRACKING AT THIS TIME. A FEW NOTES REGARDING EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL AND AIR QUALITY. THE SYNOPTIC HEALTH WATCH WARNING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR THE ISSUANCE OF EXCESSIVE HEAT PRODUCTS. HOWEVER AIR QUALITY WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF THE HOT WEATHER...IN PARTICULAR DUE TO OZONE ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 87 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...850 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 15C...A SLOW MOVING UPPER RIDGE AND THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE...WE WILL MEET OUR LOCAL CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY. THE DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY ISSUE THIS LATER THIS MORNING IN COORDINATION WITH THE PUGET SOUND CLEAN AIR AGENCY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A SMOG WATCH. IN THE MEANTIME I WILL UPDATE OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE HOT SPELL WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. MCDONNAL .LONG TERM...THE TRANSITION TO A COOLER REGIME WILL START SUNDAY...AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON...AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SLOWLY AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH INCHES TOWARD 130W (image). THE BIG MARINE PUSH WILL PROBABLY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS DEVELOP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE INLAND MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DOMINATE THE PICTURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (image). MCDONNAL && .AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXPAND INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS WILL CREATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD (image). THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCTS SHOWS SOME FOG JUST OFFSHORE WITH A NARROW TRAIL EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN STRAIT. VFR IS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG POSSIBLE AT KHQM/KCLM DURING THE EARLY HOURS THIS MORNING. KSEA...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE...A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN A GRADIENT SUFFICIENT FOR WINDS AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY GRADIENTS TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. 27 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS. $$ WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

36. What Does That Mean ? Event – Driven Products • Outlook • Watch • Warning • Advisory

37. Event – Driven Products Outlook Outlook (Heads Up!) Severe weather conditions are possible in a few days. Consider options ! 36-72 hours lead time (long fuse): High Wind, Flood, Winter Storm 12-48 hours lead time (short-fuse): Flash Flood, Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado

38. Event – Driven Products Watch / Warning / Advisory Watch (Get Prepared!) Severe weather conditions are possible, but not yet certain. Prepare now! Up to 36 hours lead time (long-fuse): High Wind Watch, Winter Storm Watch Up to 12 hours lead time (short-fuse): Flash Flood Watch Up to 6 hours lead time (short-fuse): Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Tornado Watch

39. Event – Driven Products Watch / Warning / Advisory Warning (Take Action!) Severe weather conditions have begun or are imminent in your area. Take immediate action ! Long-fused warnings: High Wind Warning, Winter Storm Warning, Coastal Flood Warning, Flood Warning Short-fused warnings: Flash Flood Warning, Tornado Warning, Severe Thunderstorm Warning

40. Event – Driven Products Watch / Warning / Advisory Advisory Weather conditions are expected to cause significant inconvenience and may be hazardous. The greatest hazard is to motorists. Winter Weather Advisory High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory

41. “High Wind” Criteria * 40 MPH or more Sustained and/or* Gusts of 58 MPH or greater Marine Warnings and Advisories Hurricane Force Storm - 64 knots or greater Storm Warning - 48 to 63 knots Gale Warning - 34 to 47 knots Small Craft Advisory - 21 to 33 knots (plus heavy coastal swells and rough bars)

42. Winter Weather Criteria • Winter Storm Warning (within 12 hours)Winter Weather • Can be combined with Ice and/or Strong Winds Advisory • Lowlands – 4 inches or more 1 to 3 inches • Mountains – 12 inches or more6 to 11 inches • Blizzard Warning • Snow Combined with Strong Winds of 35 MPH or more and • visibility less than 1/4 mile • Avalanche • #2 Weather-Related Killer in Washington

43. Serving America Since 1870 NWS Products and Services Your Weather Support Partner HelpingProtect Lives and Propertyand Enhancing Our Economy Ted Buehner Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS – Seattle/Tacoma

44. Questions ???