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Industry Evolution. OUTLINE. The industry life cycle Industry structure, competition, and success factors over the life cycle. Anticipating and shaping the future. The Industry Life Cycle. Drivers of industry evolution : demand growth creation and diffusion of knowledge. Industry Sales.

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Industry evolution
Industry Evolution

OUTLINE

  • The industry life cycle

  • Industry structure, competition, and success factors over the life cycle.

  • Anticipating and shaping the future.


The industry life cycle
The Industry Life Cycle

Drivers of industry evolution :

  • demand growth

  • creation and diffusion of knowledge

Industry Sales

Introduction Growth Maturity Decline

Time


Product and process innovation over time
Product and Process Innovation Over Time

Product Innovation

Process Innovation

Rate of innovation

Time


Standardization of product features in cars
Standardization of Product Features in Cars

FEATURE INTRODUCTION GENERAL ADOPTION

Speedometer 1901 by Oldsmobile Circa 1915 Automatic transmission1st installed 1904 Introduced by Packard as an option, 1938. Standard onCadillacs early 1950s

Electric headlamps GM introduces, 1908 Standard equipment by 1916

All-steel body GM adoptes 1912 Standard by early 1920s

All-steel enclosed body Dodge, 1923 Becomes standard late 1920s

Radio Optional extra 1923 Standard equipment, 1946

Four-wheel drive Appeared 1924 Only limited availability by 1994

Hydraulic brakes Introduced 1924 Became standard 1939

Shatterproof glass 1st used 1927 Standard features in Fords 1938

Power steering Introduced 1952 Standard equipment by 1969

Antilock brakes Introduced 1972 Standard on GM cars in 1991 Air bags GM introduces, 1974 By 1994 most new cars equipped with air bags


How typical is the life cycle pattern
How Typical is the Life Cycle Pattern?

  • Technology-intensive industries (e.g. pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, computers) may retain features of emerging industries.

  • Other industries (especially those providing basic necessities, e.g. food processing, construction, apparel) reach maturity, but not decline.

  • Industries may experience life cycle regeneration.

    Sales Sales

    1900 ‘50 ‘60 ‘90 1930 50 60 90

    MOTORCYCLES TV’s

  • Life cycle model can help us to anticipate industry evolution—but dangerous to assume any common, pre-determined pattern of industry development.

Color

Portable

B&W

HDTV ?


Evolution of industry structure over the life cycle
Evolution of Industry Structure over the Life Cycle

INTRODUCTION GROWTH MATURITY DECLINE

DEMAND Affluent buyers Increasing Mass market Knowledgeable,

penetration replacement customers, resi-

demand dual segments

TECHNOLOGY Rapid product Product and Incremental Well-diffused

innovation process innovation innovation technology

PRODUCTS Wide variety, Standardization Commoditiz- Continued rapid design change ation commoditization

MANUFACT- Short-runs, skill Capacity shortage, Deskilling Overcapacity

URING intensive mass-production

TRADE -----Production shifts from advanced to developing countries-----

COMPETITION Technology- Entry & exit Shakeout & Price wars,

consolidation exit

KSFs Product innovation Process techno- Cost efficiency Overhead red- logy. Design for uction, ration- alization, low

cost sourcing


The driving forces of industry evolution
The Driving Forces of Industry Evolution

BASIC CONDITIONS INDUSTRY STRUCTURE COMPETITION

Customers become

more knowledgeable

& experienced

Customers become

more price conscious

Quest for new

sources of

differentiation

Products become

more standardized

Diffusion of

technology

Price competition

intensifies

Production

becomes less R&D

& skill-intensive

Production shifts

to low-wage

countries

Excess capacity

increases

Bargaining power

of distributors

increases

Demand growth

slows as market

saturation approaches

Distribution channels

consolidate


Industry evolution

Changes in the Population of Firms over the

Industry Life Cycle: US Auto Industry 1885-1961

Source: S. Klepper, Industrial & Corporate Change, August 2002, p. 654.


Industry evolution

ROI at Different Stages of the Industry Life Cycle


Industry evolution

Strategy and Performance at across the Industry Life Cycle

Note: The figure shows

standardized means for each variable for businesses at each stage of the life cycle.


Preparing for the future the role of scenario analysis in adapting to industry change
Preparing for the Future : The Role of Scenario Analysis in Adapting to Industry Change

Stages in undertaking multiple Scenario Analysis:

  • Identify major forces driving industry change

  • Predict possible impacts of each force on the industry environment

  • Identify interactions between different external forces

  • Among range of outcomes, identify 2-4 most likely/ most interesting scenarios: configurations of changes and outcomes

  • Consider implications of each scenario for the company

  • Identify key signposts pointing toward the emergence of each scenario

  • Prepare contingency plan


Industry evolution

Innovation & Renewal over the

Industry Life Cycle: Retailing

Warehouse

Clubs

e.g. Price Club

Sam’s Club

Internet

Retailers

e.g. Amazon;

Expedia

Discount

Stores

e.g. K-Mart

Wal-Mart

“Category

Killers”

e.g. Toys-R-Us,

Home Depot

Mail order,

catalogue

retailing

e.g. Sears

Roebuck

?

Chain

Stores

e.g. A&P

1880s 1920s 1960s 2000


Bcg s strategic environments matrix
BCG’s Strategic Environments Matrix

FRAGMENTED SPECIALIZATION

apparel, housebuilding pharmaceuticals, luxury cars

jewelry retailing, sawmills chocolate confectionery

STALEMATE VOLUME

basic chemicals, volume jet engines, food supermarkets

grade paper, ship owning motorcycles, standard

(VLCCs), wholesale banking microprocessors

Many

SOURCES

OF

ADVANTAGE

Few

Big

Small

SIZE OF ADVANTAGE


Bcg s analysis of the strategic characteristics of specialization businesses
BCG’s Analysis of the Strategic Characteristics of Specialization Businesses

CREATIVE EXPERIMENTAL

fashion, toiletries, magazines

general publishing food products

PERCEPTIVE ANALYTICAL

high tech luxury cars, confectionery

paper towels

low

ABILITY TO

SYSTEMATIZE

high

high low

ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY