climate change real man made a presentation to potomacgop by charley martin july 14 2014 n.
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Climate Change: Real? Man-Made? A Presentation to PotomacGOP by Charley Martin July 14, 2014 PowerPoint Presentation
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Climate Change: Real? Man-Made? A Presentation to PotomacGOP by Charley Martin July 14, 2014. Climate Defined:. The meteorological conditions, including temperature, precipitation, and wind, that characteristically prevail in a particular region. (American Heritage Dictionary)

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Climate Change: Real? Man-Made? A Presentation to PotomacGOP by Charley Martin July 14, 2014


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Presentation Transcript
climate defined
Climate Defined:
  • The meteorological conditions, including temperature, precipitation, and wind, that characteristically prevail in a particular region. (American Heritage Dictionary)
  • The composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years. (Dictionary.com)
because it s the most important scientific issue of the day
Because It’s The Most Important Scientific Issue of the Day

Governments have already spent billions of dollars, and are poised to spend trillions of dollars to force a shift in the world’s energy economy away from hydrocarbon fuels

However, the processes that drive the climate are extremely complex

The scientific community finds itself sharply divided into two camps

what both camps agree on
What Both Camps Agree On

That the Earth is in a slight warming trend – about 1 degree F in the last 100 years

That the industrial activity of mankind – the very activity that brings about advancements in the quality of life – is responsible for an increase in the levels of CO2 in our atmosphere in the last 100 years from ~300 ppm to ~390 ppm

where the two camps disagree
Where the Two Camps Disagree

The “Eureka, I have found it!” camp fervently believes that the increase in anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 levels are causing the warming.

This camp generally believes that extraordinary government action is necessary to avert a world-wide disaster.

This camp hangs it hat on the “hockey stick” graph of Michael Mann:

the not so fast camp
The “Not So Fast!” Camp

“It’s a whole lot more complicated than one or two graphs.”

The climate is influenced by many variables, only one of which is the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, which may actually not be very important at all.

Let’s take our time to understand before we do something rash in the name of “saving the planet.”

does the sun figure into equation
Does the Sun Figure Into Equation?
  • The global warming alarmists refuse to consider the possibility that any other factor might be responsible for the current warming trend.
  • However, fluctuations in solar irradiance and sunspot frequency actually provide a better graphical fit to the observed temperature variations.
what is co 2
What is CO2
  • Carbon dioxide is a colorless, odorless, chemically stable gas that has always been a constituent part of our atmosphere. It is not a pollutant. (The term “carbon pollution” has become popular with the “warmists”.)
  • CO2 does not cause asthma or any other breathing problems, contrary to “clean air” commercials you may see on TV, specifically as sponsored by the American Lung Association.
  • CO2 makes up about 390 parts per million (ppm) of our atmosphere today, or about 0.039 %.
  • CO2 is absolutely essential to all plant life, and hence to all animal life. We would do well to think of CO2 as plant food, not “carbon pollution”.
battle of the graphs
“Battle of the Graphs”
  • The upper “hockey stick” graph is from the paper by Michael Mann, and is dominated by tree ring proxy data from the North American bristlecone pine.
  • The lower graph is a composite of European proxy data from many sources, and was the widely accepted understanding of Northern Hemisphere climate until Mann’s “hockey stick” became fashionable as the global warming alarmist’s rallying cry.
slide36
What Does

Paleoclimatology

Tell Us?

(Analysis of Ancient Climate)

phanerozoic eon
Phanerozoic Eon

540 MYA – Present

Continents form, drift, reform

Life develops, becomes diverse and more complex

Climate and atmosphere variable

Mass extinctions

notes on previous graphs
Notes on Previous Graphs:
  • The extreme dip in CO2 levels at 300-350 MYA accompanied the Permo-Carboniferous Ice Age and the collapse of the great rain forests.
  • One may be tempted to conclude that too little CO2 is the cause of ice ages. However, ice core data from the most recent Pleistocene period indicates that the drop in CO2follows the drop in temperature by 800-1000 years, as the ocean surfaces cool and more atmospheric CO2 goes into solution into the water. The same is true of the interglacial periods as the planet emerges from ice ages.
  • That is, the temperature always changes first, and then the CO2 changes. To this point, Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth is grossly in error on the relationship between CO2 and temperature. CO2 is the effect, not the cause.
conclusions
Conclusions
  • The Earth is in a slight warming trend (~1 degree F in 100 years). This is not a cause for alarm or drastic action. (Note: global temperature has been constant for the last 16 years.)
  • The CO2 level is the atmosphere has increased from 300 ppm to 390 ppm over the last 100 years as a result of human activity.
  • The Earth has experienced warming and cooling throughout both its recent and its ancient history. The climate changes all by itself, without any influence by humankind.
conclusions cont d
Conclusions (cont’d)
  • There is no direct evidence that proves a correlation between the current anthropogenic CO2 increase and the temperature trend of the last 100 years. In fact, a better correlation exists between solar activity and temperature.
  • The alarmists warn of “runaway” climate change if CO2 gets too much higher. In fact, CO2 levels have been much higher in the history of the planet. There is no evidence that CO2 has played a major role in the climate changes of the past. In fact, fluctuations in CO2 levels are much more likely the result of climate changes, rather than the cause.
conclusions cont d1
Conclusions (cont’d)
  • The climate is a “chaotic,” robust, extremely complicated collection of physical processes, with many feedback mechanisms which tend to have a self-correcting effect on the climate.
  • Much of the warming hysteria is based on the predictions of mathematical models. These models predict a monotonic increase in the temperature of the Earth, but have failed to duplicate the observed behavior. While it is beneficial to try to understand how the climate behaves through mathematical models, the models must be validated by observations.
al gore and roger revelle
Al Gore and Roger Revelle
  • Roger Revelle was a renowned oceanographer and taught at several institutions, including Harvard. One of his students was Al Gore.
  • In his Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore praises Roger Revelle for bringing rising CO2 from human activity to public awareness, and for serving as his inspiration in Gore’s political quest against “carbon pollution.”
  • Later in his life, as Revelle saw the overreaction to his work by Gore and others, and by political bodies like the UN IPCC, he urged caution. His second thoughts are quoted on the next slide.
slide51
Roger Revelle’s Second ThoughtsFrom an Article Published by him and Fred Singer(Excerpt from Wikipedia article on Roger Revelle)

“Drastic, precipitous and, especially, unilateral, steps to delay the putative greenhouse impacts can cost jobs and prosperity and increase the human costs of global poverty, without being effective. Stringent economic controls now would be economically devastating particularly for developing countries.”

The article concluded:

“The scientific base for a greenhouse warming is too uncertain to justify drastic action at this time. There is little risk in delaying policy responses.”

resources for skeptics
Resources for Skeptics

http://www.cfact.org/

http://www.climatedepot.com/

http://www.thegwpf.org/

http://icecap.us/

http://petitionproject.org/