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Input-Output Model and Computable General Equilibrium Model. Saipin Cintakulchai. แบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต Input-Output Model. 1. แนวคิดและประโยชน์ของแบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต 2 . ข้อจำกัดของแบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต. Theoretical Structure. Solution Techniques. Data.

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input output model and computable general equilibrium model

Input-Output Model andComputable General Equilibrium Model

Saipin Cintakulchai

I-O Model and CGE Model

input output model
แบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิตInput-Output Model

1.แนวคิดและประโยชน์ของแบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต

2.ข้อจำกัดของแบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต

I-O Model and CGE Model

slide3

Theoretical Structure

Solution Techniques

Data

The Models

Vehicles for

Practical Policy Analysis

I-O Model and CGE Model

slide4

การสร้างแบบจำลอง

เลือกตัวแปร

เขียนให้อยู่ในรูปสมการ

หาคำตอบ

อธิบายความหมายของคำตอบที่ได้

I-O Model and CGE Model

slide5

Simple Input-Output Model

คำถาม: แต่ละอุตสาหกรรมควรผลิตสินค้าจำนวนเท่าใด

จึงเพียงพอกับความต้องการรวมในระบบเศรษฐกิจ

Labor

Households

Industries

Inputs

:- machine,

leather,

rubber,

etc.

Outputs

Final goods

:- shoes

:- shoes

Product markets

I-O Model and CGE Model

input output model1

Input - Output Model

ข้อสมมุติ

1. ผู้ผลิตแต่ละรายผลิตสินค้าชนิดเดียว

2. สัดส่วนการใช้ปัจจัยการผลิตมีค่าคงที่

3. มีเทคโนโลยีการผลิตแบบ Constant returns to scale

วัตถุประสงค์ : วางแผนด้านการผลิต

I-O Model and CGE Model

simple input output table
Simple Input - Output Table

Unit: Baht

Goods Industries Final Demand

Total value

of output

1 2

1

2

X11

X21

X12

X22

X1H

X2H

X1

X2

L1

L2

Labor

Equilibrium : X1 = C1

and X2 = C2

C1

C2

Cost

I-O Model and CGE Model

input output model2
Input - Output Model

X1 = X11 + X12 + X1H --- (1)

X2 = X21 + X22 + X2H --- (2)

กำหนดให้aij = Xij / Cj ; i, j = 1, 2

ดังนั้นXij = aij Xj

Xj

X1 = a11 X1 + a12 X2 + X1H --- (1-a)

X2 = a21 X1 + a22 X2 + X2H --- (2-a)

I-O Model and CGE Model

slide9

a11 a12

X1

X2

X1H

X2H

a21 a22

จัดรูปสมการใหม่ จะได้

(1 - a11 ) X1 - a12 X2 = X1H ---(1-b)

- a21 X1 + (1 - a22 ) X2 = X2H ---(2-b)

หรือในรูปของ matrix : (I - A) X = D

D =

X =

A =

คำตอบ: X = (I - A) -1D

I-O Model and CGE Model

input output table closed economy
Input-Output Table(Closed Economy)

Unit: Baht

Goods Industries Final Demand Total Outputs

1... n

1

2

.

.

n

X11

X21

.

.

Xn1

…..X1n

…..X2n

.

.

…..Xnn

X1H

X2H

.

.

XnH

X1G

X2G

.

.

XnG

X1

X2

.

.

Xn

primary

inputs

L1 …..Ln

Equilibrium : Xi = Ci

C1 …..Cn

Costs

I-O Model and CGE Model

slide11

X1H

X2H

.

.

.

XnH

+X1G

+X2G

.

.

.

+XnG

X1

X2

.

.

.

Xn

a11 a12 … a1n

a21 a22 … a2n

an1 an2 … ann

เขียนในรูป matrix ได้ว่า :(I - A) X = D

เมื่อ

aij = Xij / Xj ; i, j = 1, 2, … , n

D =

X =

A =

คำตอบ : X = (I - A) -1D

I-O Model and CGE Model

input output table open economy

EX

X1E

X2E

..

XnE

M1

M2

..

Mn

M11

M21

..

Mn1

…..M1n

…..M2n

..

…..Mnn

M1H

M2H

..

MnH

M1G

M2G

..

MnG

0

0

..

0

Input-Output Table(Open Economy)

Unit: Baht

Goods Industries Final Demand Total Outputs

1... n

HH G

D

o

m

e

s

t

i

c

X1

X2

..

Xn

1

2

..

n

X11

X21

..

Xn1

…..X1n

…..X2n

..

…..Xnn

X1H

X2H

..

XnH

X1G

X2G

..

XnG

1

2

..

n

I

m

p

o

r

t

s

primary

inputs

L1 …..Ln

Equilibrium : Xi = Ci

Costs

C1 …..Cn

I-O Model and CGE Model

slide13

จาก: X = (I - A) -1D

การประยุกต์ใช้แบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิตการประยุกต์ใช้แบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต

1.Production Planning

2.Output Multiplier

3.Linkage Effect

I-O Model and CGE Model

input output model3
ข้อจำกัดของ Input - Output Model
  • I-O modelถือว่ามีทรัพยากรอยู่ไม่จำกัด
  • I-O model กำหนดให้ final demand เป็นตัวแปรภายนอกซึ่งในบางกรณีอาจไม่ถูกต้อง
  • I-O modelไม่มีการอธิบายความเชื่อมโยงระหว่างรายรับและรายจ่ายของภาคครัวเรือน
  • ไม่ได้แยกวิเคราะห์ผลกระทบด้านราคาและปริมาณออกจากกัน

I-O Model and CGE Model

overview

Computable General Equilibrium Model or CGE Model

Overview
  • Objective and Advantages of a CGE model
  • How many types of CGE model are there?
  • Structure of a CGE model
  • Database for a CGE model
  • Limitations of a CGE model

I-O Model and CGE Model

major objectives of a cge model

Major objectives of a CGE model

Economic Planning

Policy Analysis

I-O Model and CGE Model

advantages of a cge model
Advantages of a CGE model
  • multisector planning model
  • resource allocation analysis
  • income distribution analysis
  • etc.

I-O Model and CGE Model

a cge model

A CGE Model

incorporates market mechanisms

presents variables in terms of price and quantity

I-O Model and CGE Model

how many types of cge model are there
Single - Country Model

Multiple - Country Model

Static Model

Dynamic Model

How many types of CGE model are there?

I-O Model and CGE Model

structure of a cge model
Structure of a CGE model
  • Production
  • Consumption
  • Income
  • Equilibrium conditions

I-O Model and CGE Model

flows of goods in a simple cge model
Flows of goods in a simple CGE model

labour

capital

outputs

inputs

imports

exports

industries

Foreign market

Domestic market

households

government

I-O Model and CGE Model

example a simple cge model
Example : a simple CGE model
  • closed economy
  • two sectors with perfect competition
  • two goods (X1, X2) and two factors (K, L)
  • one household

I-O Model and CGE Model

structure of a cge model1
Structure of a CGE model
  • Production
  • Consumption
  • Income

Equilibrium

    • Market clearing conditions
    • Zero-profit conditions

I-O Model and CGE Model

production structure
Production structure

Domestic products

Exports

Domestic

products

Imports

Industries

Intermediate inputs

Primary inputs

Good 1

Good 2

labour

capital

I-O Model and CGE Model

production block

Production Block

Problem :

Minimize costs of production

Min Ci = P1X1i + P2X2i + WLi + RKi

subject to production function

Xi = Xi ( X1i, X2i, Li, Ki )

I-O Model and CGE Model

solution demand for inputs
Solution : Demand for inputs
  • X1i = f1i ( P1, P2, W, R, Xi)
  • X2i = f2i ( P1, P2, W, R, Xi)
  • Li = fLi ( P1, P2, W, R, Xi)
  • Ki = fKi ( P1, P2, W, R, Xi)

8 equations and 14 variables

I-O Model and CGE Model

household demand and its income
Household Demand and Its Income

Domestic

products

Imports

Labour

Income

Capital

Income

Total Income

Consumption

Savings

Good 1

Good 2

Income Taxes

I-O Model and CGE Model

consumption block

Consumption Block

Problem :

Maximize Utility

Max U = U ( X1H, X2H )

subject to budget constraint

M = P1X1H + P2X2H

I-O Model and CGE Model

solution demand for goods
Solution : Demand for goods
  • X1H = f1H ( P1, P2, M )
  • X2H = f2H ( P1, P2, M )

where

M = W L + R K

3 equations and 5 variables (new)

I-O Model and CGE Model

profit functions

Profit Functions

Zero - Profit Assumption

TRi = TCi

orPiXi = P1X1i + P2X2i + WLi + RKi

I-O Model and CGE Model

solution price relationship
Solution : Price relationship

Pi = P1( X1i / Xi ) + P2( X2i / Xi )

+ w ( Li / Xi ) + r( Ki / Xi )

or Pi = a1i P1 + a2i P2 + aLi W + aKi R

2 equations

I-O Model and CGE Model

market clearing equilibrium
Market Clearing: Equilibrium

Product markets :

X i = X i 1 + X i 2 + X i H

Factor markets :

L= L 1 + L 2

K= K 1 + K 2

4 equations

I-O Model and CGE Model

database for a cge model
Database for a CGE model
  • Input-Output Data
  • Socioeconomic Data
  • Behavioral Parameters
  • etc.

I-O Model and CGE Model

limitations of a cge model
Limitations of a CGE model
  • data: not up to date, inconsistency
  • difficult to know whether the model is correct
  • computation capacity

I-O Model and CGE Model