The Economic Impact of Migration in Cornwall: A Quantitative Analysis

1. Migration and the Economy in Cornwall A quantitative analysis on the relationship between migration and the economy in the small areas of Cornwall Stuart Burley

2. Aims & methods • Explore the pattern of migration in Cornwall and the economic implications • Statistical analysis of 1991 census data • Small area analysis, electoral wards • Urbanisation & counterurbanisation

3. Urbanisation & counterurbanisation • Operational definitions • Urbanisation “a movement from a state of less concentration to a state of more concentration” (Tisdale 1942) • Counterurbanisation “a movement from a state of more concentration to a state of less concentration” (Berry 1976)

4. Population change 1981 -1991

5. The migratory profile of Cornwall • Cornwall’s population increase over the last 20 years is solely attributable to migration • Increases by net migration is far higher than the UK average and higher than the South west region

6. Unemployment in Cornwall 1991

7. Male earnings in Cornwall 1991

8. The economic profile of Cornwall • Cornwall’s unemployment rates are far higher than the South west region and higher than the UK • Earnings in Cornwall are lower than the South west region and 22.8% lower than the UK

9. Why has Cornwall remained poor? • Structural disadvantages • Geographically peripheral without a large urban hub • Dependence on declining industries – fishing & agriculture • Only seasonal benefits from tourism

10. Why has Cornwall remained poor? • Population-led economic growth initiatives showed early signs of success • Economic factors, branch closures and relocations • Many former in-migrants now unemployed stayed behind

11. Why has Cornwall remained poor? • Particular type of in-migration • Many moving for quality of life motives rather than economic improvement • In-migrants more likely to leave the labour market than non-migrants • Economic benefit of migration may be dependent on the migratory strategies

12. Age structure of Cornwall 1991 (%)

13. In & out-migration by age, 1991 (%)

14. Net change by age, 1991

15. Cornwall as the mirror image of the escalator region • Fielding (1992) The South east as an escalator region • Cornwall – the first and last stages of the escalator effect

16. Urbanisation – Migrant origins

17. Urbanisation – Density of internal migrants origins and destinations

18. Urbanisation – Age structure of internal migrants

19. Urbanisation – Labour market explanations • Migration as an equilibrating mechanism • Balances the labour demand differential between areas • Balances the earnings differential between areas

20. Urbanisation – Economic indicators of origins & destinations

21. Urbanisation – Male earnings 1999

22. Urbanisation – Labour market explanations • No significant difference in the economic profile of urban wards and the origin wards • Earnings are slightly lower than average in the urban wards • Little evidence to support labour market explanations

23. Urbanisation – Semi-detached house prices 1999-2002

24. Urbanisation – Housing availability

25. Urbanisation – Second homes

26. Urbanisation – Housing explanations, tenure

27. Urbanisation - Conclusions • Urbanisation of young internal migrants • Housing constraints as the most likely explanations • ‘Pull’ of greater affordability and availability of accommodation in urban areas

28. Counterurbanisation – Migrant origins

29. Counterurbanisation – Density of in-migrant origins and destinations

30. Counterurbanisation – Age structure of in-migrants 1991

31. Counterurbanisation – Social class of in-migrants

32. Counterurbanisation – Economic activity of 45-pensionable age in-migrants

33. Counterurbanisation – Unemployment of 45-pensionable age in-migrants

34. Counterurbanisation – Unemployment of 45-pensionable age in-migrants

35. Counterurbanisation – Quality of life explanations

36. Counterurbanisation – House price averages 1991

37. Counterurbanisation – Tenure of in-migrants

38. Counterurbanisation – Equity rich work poor • High frequency of In-migrants aged 45-pensionable age in rural wards • High rates of home ownership • High rates of unemployment • Moving for quality of life reasons

39. Counterurbanisation – Equity rich work poor • House price differentials • In-migrants release capital through house price differentials • ‘Cash cushion’ • Chosen unemployment • Pre-retirement fund • Semi-retirement business ventures

40. Urbanisation & counterurbanisation – The relationship & implications • The equilibrating effect of migration on house prices • Destination prices become closer to the origin prices • Increases in the price of rural housing

41. Urbanisation & counterurbanisation residential property increases 1999-2002

42. Urbanisation & counterurbanisation – The relationship & implications • House prices increasing faster than earnings in the rural areas • Increased mortgage gap • Housing market disadvantages non-migrants but has advantages for in-migrants

43. First-time buyers unable to afford rural housing • Urbanisation of young internal migrants • ‘Push’ & ‘pull’ of housing – affordability and availability

44. Increased urbanisation of young people • Increased demand for employment in high unemployment areas • In-migration increases housing constraints and labour constraints • Incentives for younger people to leave the county

45. Stream of in-migration – equity rich work poor migrants • Counter-stream of out-migration – economically ambitious young migrants • Opposite of the South East ‘escalator’ • An ageing population • Increased social welfare costs for a reducing working-age population