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H-GAC Regional Goods Movement Plan

H-GAC Regional Goods Movement Plan. Presented to Goods Movement Study Steering Committee Presented by Paula Dowell, Ph.D. Cambridge Systematics, Inc . October 22, 2010. Transportation leadership you can trust. H-GAC Regional Goods Movement Study.

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H-GAC Regional Goods Movement Plan

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  1. H-GAC Regional Goods Movement Plan Presented toGoods Movement Study Steering Committee Presented byPaula Dowell, Ph.D. Cambridge Systematics, Inc. October 22, 2010 Transportation leadership you can trust.

  2. H-GAC Regional Goods Movement Study • Purpose – Promote economic competitiveness by enhancing efficient movement of goods and freight while mitigating community impacts • Multimodal study with focus on highways and truck movements and impacts • Final Regional Goods Movement Plan in Spring 2012

  3. Technical Analysis • Freight profiles • Economic structure and logistics patterns • Modal profiles • Commodity flow profile • Freight analysis and modeling • Freight subsystem identification • Forecasting and modeling • Needs and deficiencies • Physical and operational bottleneck analysis • Financial and institutional constraints

  4. Recommendation Development and Screening • Develop multimodal solution packages • Evaluation and prioritization • Performance measures • Funding and financing strategies • RTP development and implementation plan

  5. Outcomes Solutions • Access to industry and modal stakeholders • Linking economic structure to transportation needs • Screening process of identification of subsystem Regional Consensus • Building stakeholder and community buy-in • Steering committee Funding and Implementation • Freight investment BC and prioritization • Funding strategy and public-private partnerships • Realistic plan with implementation strategy

  6. Why is this Important? • Economic competitiveness and growth • Availability and prices of consumer goods • Congestion and delay • Air quality • Safety • Pavement costs and conditions • Other community impacts

  7. Houston-Galveston RegionWhat is Driving Growth in Goods Movement? • Growth in own market • Import and export • Manufacturing and consumer goods • Expand market reach for inland trade • Midwest • Southwest

  8. Growth in Own Market • 2007-2035 (Woods & Poole) • Population growth – 47% • Employment growth – 55% • Drives demand for freight and goods

  9. Growth in Freight Intensive Sectors Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Retail T&W

  10. U.S. Container Traffic by Coast (PIERS) TEU (in Millions) 35 Gulf Coast – 8% of trade 30 25 20 West Coast – 49% of trade 15 10 5 East Coast accounts for 43% of U.S. trade 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 East Coast West Coast Gulf Coast

  11. The Canal Effect on Container Trade 5-Year Compound Annual TEU Growth Rates, Imports from Asia 7.7% East Coast 4.5% 4.8% “The changes we are seeing in patterns of trade are fundamental… the West Coast ports are unlikely to go into long term decline … we do expect up to 25% of the West Coast ports’ present import cargo base could be lost to the East and Gulf ports in the decade to come” Drewry, September 2008 5.1% West Coast 2.9% 3.8% 2% 0% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2003-2008 2008-2013 2013-2018 Note: Gulf coast imports from Asia (’13-’18) expected to grow 8.2%. Source: RK Johns Forecast.

  12. How Much Freight is Moving in Region? Projected Growth in Region’s Freight Volumes Ton (in Thousands) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2035 2007 Source: IHS Global Insight., does not include pipeline volumes

  13. How is Freight Moving in the Region? Mode Share of Freight Movements (in Tons) 2007 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.

  14. How Many Trucks Will be on the Highways? High Volume Truck Corridors, 2035 Source: Cambridge Systematics mapping of TranSearch, IHS Global Insight, Inc.

  15. Where is Freight Moving in Region? Directional Flow of Freight and Goods (in Tons)2007 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.

  16. Where Is the Freight Moving To and From? Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of TranSearch, IHS Global Insight, Inc.

  17. Regional Challenges to Meeting Increased Demand • Highways • Congestion/delay • Heavy loads • State of repair • Railroads • Line and yard capacity • Other priorities • Pressure for passenger service • Air quality/environmental impacts • Community conflicts • Safety

  18. How Many Highway Crashes Involve Trucks? 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Other Crashes Truck-Involved Crashes Source: Data from H-GAC Report, State of Safety in the Region: 2009.

  19. Air Quality Impacts Source: NHI 139005 Linking Freight to the Environment and Planning

  20. What we need from you: • Dialogue about trade-offs between benefits and costs • Discussion of alternative strategies • Decision making framework • Foundation for partnerships going forward

  21. Discussion • What are you looking to get from this study? What does a successful study mean to you? • How does the region position to compete in the future? • Accommodate regional (organic) growth • Position for more of a national trade gateway • Where is growth going to happen and is that where you want it to happen? How can we prepare for that growth? • How do you plan for and manage shared usage of infrastructure?

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