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Gerhard Knies The Club of Rome and TREC, Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation

Conference German-Italian Cooperation for the Development of Renewable Energies in the Mediterranean DESERTEC EU-MENA Cooperation for Clean Energies from Deserts. Gerhard Knies The Club of Rome and TREC, Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation gerhard.knies@desertec.org.

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Gerhard Knies The Club of Rome and TREC, Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation

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  1. ConferenceGerman-Italian Cooperation for the Development of Renewable Energies in the Mediterranean DESERTEC EU-MENA Cooperation for Clean Energies from Deserts Gerhard Knies The Club of Rome and TREC, Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation gerhard.knies@desertec.org Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  2. The TREC Founding Document September 2003 Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  3. [1] Names of persons involved:Khalid Benhamou, Saharawind , Morocco; Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna, Centre Nationale de la Recherche, Morocco ; Hans-Jörg Brügmann, Dipl.-Ing., Germany; Gregor Czisch, Dipl.-Phys., ISET, Germany; Hans-Josef Fell, Member of Parliament, Gerrmany; Dr.-Ing. Manfred Fischedick, Wuppertal Institut, Germany; Dr. Armin Haas, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Global Change & Social Systems, PIK, Germany; Dr.-Ing. Michael F. Jischa, German Association The Club of Rome, Germany; Dr. Malek Kabariti, National Energy Research Center, Jordan; Dr. Gerhard Knies, Hamburg Climate Protection Foundation HKF, Germany; Harry Lehmann, Dipl.-Phys., ISUSI, Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Germany; Klaus-Peter Lehmann, Dipl.-Ing., elexyr, Germany; Dr. Paul Metz, European Business Council for a Sustainable Energy, e5, Netherlands; Dr. Axel Michaelowa, HWWA, Germany; Uwe Möller, German Association The Club of Rome, Germany; Dr.-Ing. Hani El Nokraschy, Germany/Egypt; Honorat Satoguina Dipl. EBA, Benin; Dr. Christian-D. Schönwiese, University of Frankfurt, Germany; Dr.-Ing. Franz Trieb, DLR, Germany. Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  4. Why „Good Neighbourhood?“ British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Wednesday 19 March 2008 said competition for energy is "one of the biggest potential drivers of the breakdown of the rules-based international system and the re-emergence of major inter-state conflict, as well as increasing regional tensions and instability." Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  5. Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  6. 3 “CSP” studies Mediterranean Potentials Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection Sea Water Desalination -www.desertec.org- Final Reports (2005,2006, 2007) by German Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of Technical Thermodynamics Section Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment Studies commissioned by Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear SafetyGermany Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2

  7. DESERTEC ConceptforEU-MENA Inter-regional cooperationinsteadofconflicts CoR White Paper 2007 • Sun-belt + technology belt • synergies • interconnection • technology, energy, water and food cooperation deserts + technology for energy, water, food and climate security Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2

  8. White Paper of The Club of Rome Presentation to European Parliament towards an Apollo-Program EU-MENA DESERTECfor Energy, Water and Climate Security 28-11-2007 Gert Pöttering Presid. Europ. Parliament Prince Hassan available at www.desertec.org Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona

  9. Studies on potentials of renewable energies in EU-MENA Initiated by TREC, performed by DLR, financed by German gov’t, www.desertec.org (1) Biomass (Typical Yield in GWhel/km²/y) (1) Geothermal Energy Wind Energy (50) 890 Hydropower (50) Economic Potential TWhel/y. 750 Solar - CSP, PV (250) 1700 + off shore 1090 > 600 000 demand  7 500 TWh/y EU+MENA 2050  50 000 TWh/y world-wide 2050 Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2

  10. Solar steamgeneratorfor power plants: the Linear Fresnel Collector easy toproduce + tomount

  11. Clean Power from Deserts for the World WORLD EU-25 MENA Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2

  12. 40 times higher How Does a Sustainable Mix „Transition Mix“ Look Like? Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials and Demands in EUMENA > 630000 Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  13. Evolution of capacities during transition to sustainable mix firm capacities ( ) ≥ peak load + 25%; Min. FIRM CAPACITY PEAK LOAD  firm capacity = peak load + plus 25 % reserve capacity Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2

  14. Power demand and sustainable supply scenario from 2000  2050 (TWh/y) in MENA and EU transition mix 2000-2050 in MENA, including export to Europe and power for desalination 6 timesmore in EU-25, and 17% import from MENA By clean power from deserts EU may gain 10-15 years in the fight against climate change. Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies nuclear energy can be phased out completely, and gas and coal largely. Gerhard Knies, EMPA commttee, 2008

  15. Resulting EUMENA-wide decarbonization compatible with climate goal DT<2° - 81% Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  16. Figure 4: Water demand scenario for MENA until 2050 and coverage of demand by sustainable sources, by unsustainable sources and by solar desalination. (shaded: efficiency gains with respect to business as usual) Better efficiency Solar desalination Ground water (over-)pumping Waste water re-use 1 NILE 2.5 NILEs Fresh water Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  17. EU-MENA food+power symbiosis: Clean power export for virtual water import Water scarcity: red : physical scarcity brown: economic scarcity blue: little or no scarcity Food insecurity: Striped countries have to import >10% of cereals import food (virtualwater) export clean power Mediterranean Partnership for Energy & Food Security Source: International Water Management Institute IWMI, January 2000, http://iwmi.org Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona

  18. Transmission Lines for Cost and Environmental Impact Assessment Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  19. Main parameters of a clean power from deserts to EU supply system: CSP plants and HVDC super-grid power generation + transmission costs. CSP capacities from 2020 – 2050 according to the TRANS-CSP scenario. In 2050, 20 lines with a capacity of 5 GW each will transmit about 700 TWh/y of electricity from 20 different locations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to the main centres of demand in Europe. generation transmission

  20. Power Cost Evolution Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  21. Power Cost Development Solar power from deserts can limit power cost escalation in Germany Gerhard Knies, EMPA commttee, 2008

  22. Clean Power from Deserts for the World! 3000 km world electricity demand of 18,000 TWh/y (in 2005)  300 x 300 km² =0.23% of all deserts In 2050: ~50,000 TWh/y  500 x 500 km² More than 90% of world pop could be served by clean power from deserts (DESERTEC) ! Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2

  23. Forum 1000 Solar Gigawatt • Forum • 10 000 Solar Gigawatt • AtHanover Industrial Fair, • 23.-24. April 2008, Germany • Topics: • CSP Technology • DESERTEC: • 10 000 Solar Gigawatt • fromdeserts - how? • more: www.desertec.org . Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona

  24. DESERTEC SUMMARY: • Deserts, with solar-thermal and wind power plants and with HVDC transmission grids, can supply clean power to over 90% of world population. • Up to 2050 the world’s power system can be largely decarbonized (DT < 2°) with the help of clean power from global deserts. • 2050: EU-MENA region with 1.5 bn people: • Example for the global problem and how it can be solved • Collectors for 1,500 Solar Gigawatts and 600 GW power capacity • Power&water supply can be secured by “powerhouse desert” • 2050: MENA supply to EU: • Union for the Mediterranean - the political facilitator for DESERTEC ? • Solar: 100 GW and 700 TWh/y (17% of expected EU-consumption) • Investments: CSP=350 bn Euro, HVDC=45 bn Euro • Wind : 120 GW and 360 TWh/y generation (coarse guess) • Investments: 100 bn Euro, HVDC=30 bn Euro (coarse guess) • Cost of clean energy system ~ 1% of climate change damage Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  25. Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  26. Table 2‑12: Investment cost of power technologies including decommissioning discounted over lifetime Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  27. Table 2‑13: Development of the electricity cost of new plants of different power technologies in the example of Spain on the basis of the investment cost development in Table 2‑12 and the different performance indicators representing each technology in each country following the TRANS-CSP scenario until 2050. From 2030 onwards, biomass, geothermal and CSP plants subsequently take over peaking duties, which is the reason for their cost elevation. Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

  28. Table 2‑14: Technologies and range of required revenues in the different electricity market segments Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19

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