CaribbeanBroadcast Market 2012 - 2020
T&T Pay TV Market Today • Currently 182k Pay TV HHs as at end of Q3 • Growth of less than 3% over last 2 years • Represents just over 50% penetration • Expansionto 60% of 350k HHs by 2016 is realistic • Increase in actual HHs from 185k in 2011 to 210k • Equates to only 25k growth in new Pay TV HHs in next 4 years
T&T Pay TV Market 2020 • WithPAY TV penetration increase to 70% in 2020 • Maxed out at 245k Pay TV HHs • Four relatively strong should stillexist in Trinidad, and 2 in Tobago • More than a typical U.S. city • Interestingly all use different Technology • Is there room for an additional Pay TV player?
Broadcast Market • 9Licensees competing for $120 million TT in Advertising Revenue in 2012 • FTA advertising pie unlikely to increase significantly in light of continued audience fragmentation • Number of National players to shrink to 6 or less by 2016 • Other stations to become niche markets, e.g. Synergy, Gayelle, WI Sports • No new traditional broadcaster interest • Opportunity for content providers to emerge
Switchover Target Market • Based on earlier assumptions, 140k HHs will require STBs in 2016 • Broadcasters will be left with transmission infrastructure which may not be fully amortized • Who pays? • How will burden be shared? • Will broadcasters invest in HD technology? • What is the cost of establishing new signal distributor?
Case for a Broadcast Cooperative for Signal Distribution • Surviving licensees will be able to fit on one signal distribution system • Establishing a Cooperative ensures maximum efficiency for existing broadcasters with no “mark-up” • Broadcasters able to engage in better long term planning • Consumers will find traditional broadcasters in “same place” • Incremental DTT spectrum can be used for niche providers and potential new content providers
Determination of Future Spectrum Use • Once transition is completed and market is stabilized, regulator can look at use of additional DTT spectrum in 2016 • By then more realistic picture of Pay TV and Broadcast Markets would have emerged • An offer of spectrum at that stage will give potential bidders a much better opportunity to determine the feasibility of the market • Other Mobile and Broadband applications will be an option
Caribbean Markets • Primarily a Government decision in markets with dominant Government owned TV stations • St.Kitts and Grenada examples • Start by assuming transition of existing Government owned TV station • Use capacity to attract new providers or ancillary services • Get consumer to pay so that it is self financing (e.g. Barbados STV) • Will depend on extent of Pay TV competition in each market • Most markets have one dominant Pay TV provider • Satellite offers the best option for competition with minimum capital infrastructure