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Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study NIDIS update February 24, 2011 Boulder , CO PowerPoint Presentation
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Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study NIDIS update February 24, 2011 Boulder , CO. Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study. Two-year, $2 million study cost shared by Reclamation and the Basin States Assess future water supply and demand imbalance

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slide1

Colorado River Basin

Water Supply and Demand Study

NIDIS update

February 24, 2011

Boulder, CO

slide2

Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study

  • Two-year, $2 million study cost shared by Reclamation and the Basin States
    • Assess future water supply and demand imbalance
    • Assess risks to all basin resources
    • Investigate options and strategies to mitigate impacts
  • A transparent, collaborative study with input from all stakeholders
  • Email:
  • ColoradoRiverBasinStudy@usbr.gov
  • Website:
  • http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/
  • programs/ crbstudy.html
colorado river basin water supply and demand study
Study Area

Colorado River Basin and those adjacent areas of the Basin States that receive Colorado River water

Cost-Share Partners

Arizona Department of Water Resources

(California) Six Agency Committee

Colorado Water Conservation Boar

New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission

Southern Nevada Water Authority

Utah Division of Water Resources

Wyoming State Engineer’s Office

Reclamation (LC and UC Regions)

Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study
study phases and tasks
Study Phases and Tasks

Phase 1:Water Supply

Phase 2:Water Demand Assessment

Phase 3:System Reliability Analysis

Phase 4:Development & Evaluation of Opportunities

1.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current Supply

2.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current Demand

3.1 – Identify Reliability Metrics

4.1 – Develop Opportunities

3.2 – Estimate Baseline System Reliability

Formulate Approach to Include Uncertainty

1.2 – Select Methods to Project Future Supply

2.2 – Select Methods to Project Future Demand

4.2 –

Evaluate and Refine Opportunities

3.3 – Project Future System Reliability

1.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Supply

2.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Demand

Develop Future Supply and Demand Scenarios

3.3.5-3.3.8 – Project Future Reliability with Opportunities

1.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Supply

4.3 –

Finalize Opportunities

2.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Demand

draft water supply storyline themes
Draft Water Supply Storyline Themes
  • Observed (O)
    • Theme: Historic instrumental period for streamflow represents suitable trends and variability for characterizing the future
  • Direct Paleo (DP)
    • Theme: Paleoclimate period offers a more expansive understanding of streamflow variability that may be more representative of future variability
  • Paleo Conditioned (PC)
    • Theme: Inter-annual variability of paleo reconstructions is believed to be more representative of future variability, but streamflow magnitudes are believed to best represented by the instrumental period
  • Climate Projection (CP)
    • Theme: Future climate and streamflow variability is represented through global climate models and simulated hydrologic conditions driven by the results of these models
methodology for incorporating climate projections in future supply

Global

Climate

Models

Emission Scenarios

(3 scenarios: A2, A1b, B1)

Methodology for Incorporating Climate Projections in Future Supply

Hydrologic Modeling

(112 downscaled projections)

16 GCMs

Systems Modeling

(112 traces)

Bias Correction & Spatial Downscaling

(112 downscaled projections)

current best estimate natural flow conditions at lees ferry
Current “Best” Estimate Natural Flow Conditions at Lees Ferry

2011 – 2060 Period Mean Annual Flows

Box represents 25th – 75th percentile, whiskers represent min and max, and triangle represents mean of all traces

1988 – 2007 period mean

DRAFT – SUBJECT TO CHANGE

draft demand storyline themes
Draft Demand Storyline Themes
  • “A”: Current Trends
    • Theme: Growth, development patterns, and institutions continue along recent trends
  • “B”: Economic Slowdown
    • Theme: Low growth with emphasis on economic efficiency
  • “C”: Expansive Growth
    • Theme: Economic resurgence driven by population growth and energy needs
      • C1 branch to slower technology adoption
      • C2 branch to rapid technology adoption and slight increase in social values
  • “D”: Enhanced Environment and Healthy Economy
    • Theme: Expanded environmental awareness and stewardship with growing economy
      • D1 branch to current growth trends
      • D2 branch to higher growth and technology
integration of supply and demand scenarios
Integration of Supply and Demand Scenarios

Demand Scenarios

Supply Scenarios

(multiple realizations for each scenario)

PR

D

Recent Trends

PC

O

A

Current Trends

B

C

CP

Climate indexing for demands

colorado river simulation system crss
Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS)
  • Comprehensive model of the Colorado River Basin
  • Developed by Reclamation (early 1970s) and implemented in RiverWareTM (1996)
  • Primary tool for analyzing future river and reservoir conditions in planning context (NEPA EIS)
  • A projection model, not a predictive model
  • Excellent for comparative analysis
  • Gives a range of potential future system conditions (e.g., reservoir elevations, releases, energy generation)
  • Simulates on a monthly timestep over decades
  • Operating policy is represented by “rules” that drive the simulation and mimic how the system operates
system reliability metrics
Metrics are measures that indicate the ability of the system to meet the needs of Basin resources

Metrics will be used to quantify the impacts to Basin resources from future supply and demand imbalances

System Reliability Metrics
  • Metrics Resource Categories
  • Depletions
  • Electrical Power Resources
  • Water Quality
  • Flood Control
  • Recreational Resources
  • Ecological Resources
study phases and tasks1
Study Phases and Tasks

Phase 1:Water Supply

Phase 2:Water Demand Assessment

Phase 3:System Reliability Analysis

Phase 4:Development & Evaluation of Opportunities

1.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current Supply

2.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current Demand

3.1 – Identify Reliability Metrics

4.1 – Develop Opportunities

3.2 – Estimate Baseline System Reliability

Formulate Approach to Include Uncertainty

1.2 – Select Methods to Project Future Supply

2.2 – Select Methods to Project Future Demand

4.2 –

Evaluate and Refine Opportunities

3.3 – Project Future System Reliability

1.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Supply

2.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Demand

Develop Future Supply and Demand Scenarios

3.3.5-3.3.8 – Project Future Reliability with Opportunities

1.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Supply

4.3 –

Finalize Opportunities

2.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Demand

slide15

Colorado River Basin

Water Supply and Demand Study

http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/crbstudy.html

NIDIS update

February 24, 2011

Boulder, CO

graphical depiction of driving forces categories and scenarios
Graphical Depiction of Driving Forces Categories and Scenarios

D2

D1

Social & Institutional

Economics & Technology

A

C2

B

C1

Today

Demographics & Land Use