MOSAiC M ultidisciplinary drifting O bservatory for the S tudy of A rct i c C limate

1. MOSAiC Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate Ad hoc Organizing Committee Matthew Shupe – U. of Colorado Klaus Dethloff – Alfred Wegener Inst. Ola Persson – U. of Colorado Michael Tjernström – Stockholm U. Science Plan Writing Team Sebastian Gerland, Jun Inoue, Craig Lee, Brice Loose, Alexander Makshtas, WieslawMaslowski, Walt Meier, Marcel Nicolaus, Dirk Notz, IlkaPeeken, Don Perovich, Julia Schmale, TimoVihma, Jinping Zhao

2. Dukhovskoy et al. 2006 www.iarc.uaf.edu Francis et al. 2009

3. Arctic in Transition • The central Arctic is changing dramatically, • characterized by major sea-ice decline & more younger ice. • Do we know why? and (importantly) how? Sept. 2012 1979-2000 median Courtesy J. Stroeve nsidc.org

4. Implications of Change • We lack a system- and process-level understanding of change, due to a lack of observations! • Potential emergence of new processes, tipping points • Feedbacks with “globally significant consequences” (IPCC) • Implications for regional and lower-latitude weather • Implications for resource development, commerce, ecosystems, productivity, communities noaa.gov Francis et al. 2009

5. Sea-Ice Energy Budget ARCTIC ENERGY BUDGET (f > 65°N) Incoming solar radiation 200 W m2 reflected solar radiation 115 W m2 Outgoing longwave radiation 183 W m2 -100 20 Reflected by clouds, aerosol & atmosphere 30 133 45 emitted by atmosphere Absorbed by atmosphere +98 59 237 3 3 back radiation Reflected by surface 231 96 20 70 231 3 257 26 3 Turbulence Absorbed by surface Absorbed by surface Evapo-transpiration Surface radiation +2 Sea ice Sea ice 2 Decadal decline can be explained by ~1 W/m2 excess. Kwok and Untersteiner 2011 Persson et al. 2013

6. Critical Model Shortcomings Regional Climate Models evaluated against SHEBA radiative fluxes reveal major biases and spreads, especially under clouds. Such biases can have serious implications for sea-ice concentrations. ~ 0 W m-2 ~ 0 W m-2 ~-10 W m-2 ~-25 W m-2 Tjernström et al. 2008

7. Critical Model Shortcomings Comparison of IPCC AR4 models of sea-surface salinity: Major differences suggest lack of consistency in important processes such as ocean mixing, dynamics, sea-ice processes, freshwater input, and/or others. Best estimate of actual field based on observations Holland et al. 2007

8. The MOSAiC Plan Multi-year, coordinated, and comprehensive measurements, extending from the atmosphere through the sea-ice and into the ocean, are needed in the central Arctic Basin to provide a process-level understanding of the changing central Arctic climate system that will contribute towards improved modeling of Arctic climate and weather, and prediction of Arctic sea-ice concentrations.

9. The MOSAiC Plan What: Deploy heavily instrumented, manned, ship-based, Arctic Ocean observatory for comprehensive, coordinated observations of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and ocean. Network of spatial measurements to provide context and variability (buoys, gliders, UAVs, aircraft, ships, satellites, ice stations). Coordinated modeling activities at many scales from process-study to regional climate models.

10. The MOSAiC Plan • When: Start 2017-2018, covering multiple annual cycles if possible • Where: Central Arctic Basin ice pack • Who: • Coordinated through IASC • International participation (e.g. US, Germany, Sweden, France, Russia, Finland, Norway, Canada, Korea, Japan, China,….) • International infrastructure • Synchronized international funding September 2011 sea ice extent (courtesy NSIDC). Numerous drift tracks of stations suggest possible observatory tracks

11. MOSAiC Science Drivers Leading Science Question: “What are the causes and consequences of an evolving and diminished Arctic sea ice cover?” Sea-ice Lifecycle as a Theme. Use a sea-ice “Lagrangian” perspective, where ice processes integrate forcings from atmos and ocean.

12. MOSAiC Science Questions • How do ongoing changes in the Arctic ice-ocean-atmosphere system impact heat and mass transfers of importance to climate and ecosystems? • What are the processes and feedbacks affecting sea-ice cover, atmosphere-ocean stratification and energy budgets in the Arctic? • What is the effect of an ice-reduced Arctic on biological productivity and what are the consequences of this on other components of the system? • How do interfacial exchange rates, biology and chemistry couple to regulate the major elemental cycles? • How do the different scales of spatial and temporal heterogeneityin the atmosphere, ice and ocean interact to impact the linkages or feedbacks within the system?

13. Process Perspective • Process-study vs. climatology • Process perspective suited to parameterization evaluation & development • Requires complex measurements to characterize interdependent processes • Distributed measurements for spatial variability & context on key parameters Ocean Sea-ice Atmosphere

14. Measurements atmospheric profiling, BL, & dynamics gases, aerosols, clouds & precip. aircraft + UASs ocean and ice bio/chem surface energy budget buoys, AUVs, gliders Micro- meteorology ice profiling, thermodynamics, mass budgets ocean state, profiling, & dynamics leads & ocean surface

15. Planning the Drift Track • Transpolar Drift track • Objectives: • Observe full sea-ice “life cycle,” starting in new ice. • Trajectory that will last for at least (more than) 1 year • Observe an understudied region • Challenges: • Central Arctic is isolated • First year ice will be difficult 2011

16. Full Annual Cycle Perovich et al. 2008 Persson et al. 2002 • Arctic climate system has memory. Sea-ice integrates energy budgets. • Processes vary over the annual cycle. • Important to understand all phases of the sea-ice life cycle: Formation > growth > transport/deformation > melt/decay/export • Past observations biased towards summer (warm, easy); • Relatively little understanding of winter processes.

17. Building off the Past • Previous experiences within the Arctic ice pack: • Russian drifting stations • SHEBA • Shorter-term campaigns • Many disciplinary obs. • Some inter-disciplinary obs. • Each of these has key limitations: • Length of time • Comprehensiveness • Spatial context • Not in the “new” Arctic Russian drifting station SHEBA

18. Central Model Role • Models play critical roles: • Identify important measurements, processes • Guide drift track • Integrate process information • Provide spatial context • Linkage w/ lower latitudes

19. Central Model Role • Model considerations: • Hierarchy of model activities: process, regional, global • Regional model intercomparison project • Model “testbed” > Critical data for parameterization evaluation & development • Strong ties with WWRP Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

20. A Recognized Need • MOSAiC concept is specifically recognized as important: • IARPC Arctic Research Plan 2013-2017 • US Arctic Observing Network Coordination Workshop 2012 • DOE US-EU Workshop on Climate Challenges and Observations 2012 • NASA Arctic Boreal Zone Workshop 2012 • WWRP Polar Predictability Program, Implementation Plan 2012 • IASC endorsement 2012 • And clearly addresses specific needs: • US SEARCH 5-year goals (sea-ice), 2012 • US AON Status Report (atmos/ocean/sea-ice), 2009 • US National Ocean Policy (sea-ice), 2012 • US Navy Arctic Roadmap (coupled modeling, sea-ice), 2009 • NOAA Arctic Vision & Strategy (sea-ice forecasting, science), 2011 “Improve the understanding of atmosphere, sea-ice, and ocean system interactions through a combination of enhanced observations and process-based modeling studies.” US SEARCH 5-Year Goals

21. MOSAiC into the Future • Tentative MOSAiC Schedule • Develop Science Plan – spring-summer 2013 • Writing workshop – 29-30 May 2013, Potsdam • Implementation Workshop and Plan – spring2014 • MOSAiC Open Science Meeting – likely 2014 • Start serious funding discussions: 2013> • Logistics planning 2013> • Preparatory modeling & instrument development 2013> • Field deployment September 2017?, 2018? Thanks! www.mosaicobservatory.org