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EVERYTHING YOU HAVE ALWAYS WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING

EVERYTHING YOU HAVE ALWAYS WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING. Proudly presented to you by the Optimisation Team. 09 July 2013. WHAT IS A FORECAST?. AN (EDUCATED) GUESS!.

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EVERYTHING YOU HAVE ALWAYS WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING

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  1. EVERYTHING YOU HAVE ALWAYS WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING Proudly presented to you by the Optimisation Team 09 July 2013

  2. WHAT IS A FORECAST? AN (EDUCATED) GUESS!

  3. “Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”Irving Fisher, the man whom legendary economist Milton Friedman called "the greatest economist the United States has ever produced" said this three days before the Black Thursday crash in 1929 plunged America into the Great Depression.

  4. “If you're a long-term investor, these ten stocks should put your retirement account in good stead and protect you from those recurring nightmares about the stocks that got away.”The August 2000 edition of the Fortune magazine ran a famous story picking 10 Stocks to Last a Decade. Ten years later, a portfolio comprising the 10 stocks would have lost 70 per cent of its value, with only one stock posting a gain, while two firms on the list went bankrupt, one of them being Enron.

  5. Video • Winds 220km/h • 22 deaths • 15 millions trees fell Oooops!

  6. Challenges • Volume • Variability • Lead time/ability to react

  7. FONTERRA VOLUMES OR HOW A FORECAST MAY (SIGNIFICANTLY) CHANGE 15 BILLION LITRES OF MILK…That’s 6,000 OLYMPIC SIZE SWIMMING POOLS !!! 170,000 TEUs PER YEAR…THAT’S ENOUGH CONTAINERS TO BUILD A BRIDGE FROM AUCKLAND TO STEWART ISLAND!!!!! PHILADEPHIA: REEFER CARGO Budget: 15 TEUs or 200MT Actual: 1,200 TEUs or 18,000MT. 800 TEUs shipped in November alone!!!!

  8. NZ Meat/dairy industry • 31.2M+ sheep in New Zealand • 3.7M+ beef cattle • 6.2M+ dairy cattle • 1M+ deer • 300k+ pigs • 86k+ goats • 332,011 T of Beef exported 2012 • 3 billion quarter pounders • 264,659 T of Lamb exported 2012 • 2.6 billion lamb cutlets

  9. SFF Challenges • 2013 Drought • $2 billion • Average income down by $100,00 per annum

  10. SFF Challenges Lead time 8 – 14 days

  11. Volume split

  12. What do we do with it? • Critic • Plan • Execute

  13. CUSTOMER FORECAST CARRIER FORECAST CRITIQUE/FEASIBILITY PLAN EXECUTION

  14. ACTIVITY

  15. How do we make it better? • Forecast?

  16. Sneak peek

  17. Your part in forecasting • Vendor Management – ensuring we have a carrier solution to manage flexible demand • Operations – ensure the plan is executed right up until cargo is delivered • CRM – first point of call and communication point for our customers, our customers have the inside knowledge on expected demand • Sales – new customer forecasts & budget forecasting • IT – Enabling the business to better demand plan and capacity manage through improvements to our IT systems • Finance – forecasting financial budgets and projections to stakeholders & the board

  18. Questions?

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