slide1 l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Top story of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Hurricane Ike PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Top story of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Hurricane Ike

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 71

Top story of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Hurricane Ike - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 301 Views
  • Uploaded on

Top story of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Hurricane Ike Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc. http://www.wunderground.com Ike’s non-U.S. impacts

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Top story of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Hurricane Ike' - jana


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

Top story of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Hurricane Ike

Dr. Jeff Masters

Director of Meteorology

The Weather Underground, Inc.

http://www.wunderground.com

ike s non u s impacts
Ike’s non-U.S. impacts
  • Cuba suffered $3-$4 billion in damage, and 2.6 million people were forced to evacuate (23% of the population)
  • The Southeast Bahamas had $50-$200 million in damage. Additional heavy damage occurred on the nearby Turks and Caicos Islands.
  • Haiti suffered the most from Ike, with 74 deaths and ruinous flooding.
slide8

Ike’s Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) was higher than Katrina when it was at Category 5 strength

slide13

Costliest U.S. Hurricanes of all time

*Ike did an additional $4.4 billion in damage as an extratropical storm

slide14

Largest U.S. Power Outages

from a Weather Disaster

slide15

Ike’s Death Toll: 30th deadliest U.S. Hurricane

  • 20 direct U.S. deaths
  • 34 missing from Galveston and Bolivar Peninsula
  • 64 indirect deaths in Texas
  • 28 deaths in TN, OH, IN, IL, MO, KY, MI, PA
  • 146 total dead and missing in the U.S.
slide17

What good came of Ike?

  • Exposed inadequacies of the Saffir-Simpson Scale, prompting NHC to propose issuing special Storm Surge Warnings
  • Portlight.org disaster relief charity born
slide21

A Preview of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Dr. Jeff Masters

Director of Meteorology

The Weather Underground, Inc.

http://www.wunderground.com

slide22

Seasonal Predictions, December 2008:

Dr. Bill Gray: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes

TSR, Inc: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3.5 intense hurricanes

Climatology: 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes

Since 1995: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes

since 1995 number of named storms hurricanes and intense hurricanes
Since 1995—number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes

4 El Nino years 1997 8,3,1

2002 12,4,2

2004 15,9,6

2006 10,5,2

5 La Nina years 1995 19,11,5

1998 14,10,3

1999 12,8,5

2000 15,8,3

2007 15,6,2

5 Neutral years 1996 13,9,6

2001 15,9,4

2003 16,7,3

2005 28,15,7

2008 16,8,5

the wunderground com march 2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast
The wunderground.com March 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast:
  • 14 named storms
  • 7 hurricanes
  • 3 intense hurricanes

May the steering currents be your friend!

slide35

The National Climatic Data Center’s Climate Extremes Index:

Percentage of U.S. with max temperatures much below normal and much above normal.

Percentage of U.S. with min temperatures much below normal and much above normal.

Percentage of U.S. in severe drought and with severe moisture surplus.

Percentage of U.S. with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

Percentage U.S. with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and without precipitation.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cei/cei.html

slide41

Is the weather getting more extreme?

  • Yes. NOAA (Gleason et al., 2008) concluded that the percentage of the U.S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation has generally been increasing since the early 1970s.
  • These increases were most pronounced in summer.
  • No trends were noted in winter.
  • 5 of the 15 most extreme years in the past century occurred since 1997.
slide44

Expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005).

  • Expected increase in SST by 2100: 1-2 °C.
  • Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5-10%.
  • Difference in wind speed between a Cat 3 and Cat 4: 15%.
  • Thus, major hurricanes in 2100 should do 1.5 - 3 times more damage than they do now.
slide46

…Which would lead to increased storm surge damage.

  • 1910-1920: NJ coast was exposed to high water levels from extreme storms less than 200 hours per year.
  • Early 1990's: Coast was exposed to high water from storms of the same magnitude 700 to 1200 hours per year.
  • No increases in storm intensity or frequency that
  • might account for the increasing high water levels.
  • Conclusion: Increase in storm surge exposure of the coast was due to sea-level rise of 1 foot over the 80-year period (Zhang et al.,1997)
slide52

10) Pacific Northwest Extratropical Storm

Probability: 30%

Damage from the 1962 Columbus Day Storm

slide53

9) Galveston/Houston Hurricane

Probability: 60%

1900 Galveston Hurricane damage

slide54

8) New Orleans Hurricane

Probability: 70%

New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, 2005

slide55

7) Tampa Bay Hurricane

Probability: 40%

Bayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 Hurricane

slide56

6) Mississippi/Missouri River Flood

Probability: 90%

Waterloo, Iowa during the June 2008 flood

slide57

5) New England Hurricane

Probability: 40%

Rhode island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954

slide59

4) Midwest Drought

Probability: 90%

Texas Drought, 2006

slide60

3) Miami Hurricane

Probability: 80%

Miami Beach, 1926 Hurricane

slide61

2) Southwest Drought

Probability: 50%

San Bruno California Fires, June 2008

slide62

1) Mississippi Flood causes failure of the Old River Control Structure

Probability: 30%

Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water