The Molniya Orbit Imager - a high-latitude quasi-geostationary satellite mission

1. The Molniya Orbit Imager- a high-latitude quasi-geostationary satellite mission Lars Peter Riishojgaard Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

2. Mission highlights • High-latitude quasi-geostationary imager (“GOES to the pole”) • Full Earth disc image every 15 minutes at 1 km (VIS channel) and 2 km (5 IR channels) horizontal resolution • High-latitude winds => improved weather forecasts (fewer busts) also at low latitudes • MODIS winds => better forecasts overall, hurricane landfall prediction • WMO recommendation on polar winds • Rapid repeat imaging data have applications in wide range of Earth science disciplines Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

3. Overview • Scientific rationale behind the mission • Why choose the Molniya orbit ? • How do we implement it? • Programmatic context, international collaboration Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

4. Why this mission? • Weather forecasts (global Numerical Weather Prediction products) have on average become very good => economic consequences of failure are large and growing • Reducing the severity and frequency of forecast busts high on NWS list of priorities • Busts over North America (mid-latitudes in general) often have high-latitude origins • General lack of high-latitude wind observations is among the most important shortcoming of the Global Observing System (GOS) Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

5. Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

6. Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

7. Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

8. MODIS water vapor imagery (winds) animation courtesy of CIMSS Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

9. Status of satellite wind observations • No operational satellite wind measurements beyond 55-60 deg latitude • Experimental polar winds from MODIS; no operational follow-on planned • Data latency is problematic; 4 to 6 hours after real time • Image refresh rate problematic; 15 minutes is optimal, MODIS: ~100 minutes • No water vapor channel on NPOESS/VIIRS (until at least 2020) • Timetable for VIIRS in general is uncertain • Latitudinal coverage gap between MODIS and GEO winds • => Need for “geostationary-type” imagery over high-latitude regions; Molniya Orbit Imager is a good candidate Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

10. Molniya orbit characteristics • Highly eccentric Kepler orbit • Apogee height 39750 km (geostationary orbit height ~36000 km) • Perigee height ~600 km • Inclination 63.4 degrees • Orbital period ~11h 58m (half a sidereal day) • Location of apogee w.r.t. Earth is fixed and stable! • Platform in quasi-stationary imaging position near the apogee for about two thirds of the duration of the orbit • Used extensively by USSR and later Russia (to a lesser degree by the US) for communications purposes • First suggested for meteorological applications by Kidder and Vonder Haar (1990) Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

11. Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

12. Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

13. Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

14. Why Molniya orbit? • Quasi-stationary perspective; ideal for feature tracking • Apogee height => GEO technology can be reused • Cost savings • Risk reduction • Best possible high-latitude coverage per satellite • Fully complements geostationary data; no LEO-like latitudinal coverage gap • Little time “wasted” over lower latitudes adequately seen from GEO • Simple ground segment; real-time dissemination can be achieved with a single primary ground station, as for GEO • Target is user delivery of calibrated and rectified images within less than 20 minutes and winds within less than 60 minutes of real time Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

15. Additional science applications(beyond satellite winds and NWP) • Sea ice (GSFC, MSC) • Age, temperature, motion, thickness, model validation • Temporal resolution will benefit operational applications, studies of polynyas, leads and marginal ice zone • Vegetation/forest fire monitoring (NESDIS, MSC) • Detection, intensity monitoring over Alaska, Canada, Siberia • Air quality applications over the Continental US (NOAA, EPA) • Volcanic eruptions; SO2, ash clouds (UMBC, USGS, OFCM) • NOAA, USGS interested in real-time monitoring capabilities for the Alaska Volcano Observatory for FAA/commercial aviation customers • Clouds, fog (NESDIS, UCPH) • Several cloud products planned by CIMSS • Temporal resolution enables e.g. contrail/cirrus studies Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

16. Additional science applications (II) • Polar weather (NWS, GSFC) • Operational monitoring of high-latitude weather • Development and life cycle of e.g. polar lows • Snow-cover and albedo monitoring (FMI) • Will benefit from temporal resolution primarily due to higher probability of clear-sky images • Regional water quality (HUT) • Dynamic phytoplankton and suspended solids mapping in the Baltic Sea • Surface radiation balance and SVAT models (UCPH) • Temporal resolution enables incorporation of the diurnal cycle in land-surface temperature, variability of aerosol loading and humidity in SVAT (Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer) models Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

17. Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

18. Molniya Orbit ImagerPreliminary data products list

19. Mission level requirements • High temporal and spatial resolution imagery for all areas N of 60 degrees N for multitemporal applications and derived products • Full-disc view every 15 minutes within 60% of apogee • Special events rapid-scan capability: 1000 x 1000 km every 60 s • Horizontal resolution 1 km (VIS), 2 km (IR) at nadir from apogee • Nominal 3-year mission duration • Not technically difficult to meet or exceed • Proposal development originally targeted for NASA’s ESSP; opportunity never materialized • Real-time “operational” dissemination of images and derived products Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

20. Mission implementation studies • Overall Molniya Orbit Imager mission design based on • A series of concurrent engineering studies by the Integrated Design Capability at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center • A series of industry-funded studies (Ball Aerospace, Raytheon, SS/Loral, ITT Industries, Orbital Sciences, …) • Key IDC results: • Mission is technically feasible and classified as “low risk” • Total costs of three-year mission: ~$300M (with 30% margin) • Space segment • Instrument vendor (Raytheon) was selected for baseline mission • S/C proposals from four vendors were evaluated • Ground segment • NESDIS helped draft plans for data processing chain and indicated possibility of ground support (Fairbanks station) • Finland (FMI) has committed in principle to ground support (Sodankyla station; data processing) Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

21. Instrument system requirements (from POD)

22. MOI Spacecraft (IMDC flight configuration) Instrument Scan Control Instrument Cooler Control Instrument Sensor Module Instrument Main Electronics Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

23. Strong, broad-based community support • WMO recommendation (Alpbach 2004): • Operational satellite agencies are encouraged to investigate possibilities for ensuring a follow-on to the high-latitude winds from MODIS with improved timeliness • WMO Vision for the GOS in 2025 (R&D/pathfinders): “… Visible /IR imagers on satellites in highly elliptical orbit (HEO)” • Louis Uccellini, Director of NOAA/NCEP • “ … there is no question that the scientific rationale behind the Molniya mission is rock solid” • US Navy, NPOESS IPO, ECMWF, national weather services in a number of countries (e.g. UK, Germany, Netherlands, Nordic countries, Canada ) are behind this • Interest from a number of other science disciplines • Data from the Molniya Orbit Imager can be used to monitor sea ice, forest fires, volcanic eruptions, snow cover, water quality, etc. • Possibility of co-flying small scientific payload, e.g. Canadian/Finnish UV Aurora imager Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

24. Prospective partners • National science partners • NOAA/NESDIS; ground support, data processing, instrument • DoD (USAF, NRL/FNMOC); endorsement • International science partners • EUMETSAT; ground support • Finland (TEKES, FMI); ground support, space segment, launch • CSA/MSC; Canada launching own pre-Phase A Molniya study • Partners of opportunity • University of Calgary/FMI; secondary scientific payload: UV Aurora imager • CSA; high-latitude communications Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

25. International perspective • Canadian Space Agency and Environment Canada in pre-Phase A of two-satellite Molniya-like communications system • Russia developed “Arktika” mission proposal closely related to MOI • Being discussed in IGEOLAB context • FMI has attempted to initiate ESA pre-Phase A study for high-latitude imaging mission Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

26. International perspective (II) • High-latitude imaging mission realization could involve ring of countries surrounding the Arctic: Canada, Russia, Nordic countries, USA, … • Climate change => increased interest in Arctic region, both politically, economically and scientifically • Discussions taking place in the WMO IGEOLAB Highly Elliptical Orbit Working Group • HEO Working Group is CGMS-driven; not all parties interested in high-latitude imagery are members • HEO WG focuses on programmatics, not on requirements and applications • One role of Arctic Imaging Workshop is to gauge (and hopefully raise) the level of interest within the scientific community Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008

27. Summary • Geostationary-class multipurpose imager in Molniya orbit; will complement the GEO system providing imagery and derived products (e.g. winds) to the pole • Additional data products supporting a wide variety of earth science applications • First (civilian) remote sensing mission in Molniya orbit • First high-temporal resolution imagery for regions N of 60 N • Mission ideally suited for national and international collaboration • Strong interest from Finland, Canada and several other countries Arctic Imaging Workshop, NBI, August 20-21, 2008