slide1 n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
OUTLOOK FOR U.S. TRAVEL AND TOURISM PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
OUTLOOK FOR U.S. TRAVEL AND TOURISM

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 57

OUTLOOK FOR U.S. TRAVEL AND TOURISM - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 449 Views
  • Uploaded on

OUTLOOK FOR U.S. TRAVEL AND TOURISM . “Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.” Mark Twain. Where Are We Now? 2005. Travel Performance* – 2005 . Domestic travel up 6% Leisure travel up 9%; business/ convention travel down slightly

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'OUTLOOK FOR U.S. TRAVEL AND TOURISM' - jana


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

OUTLOOK FOR

U.S. TRAVEL AND TOURISM

travel performance 2005
Travel Performance* – 2005
  • Domestic travel up 6%
  • Leisure travel up 9%; business/ convention travel down slightly
  • Continued growth in air and hotel volume
  • Group meeting room-nights up but transient business room-nights down
  • International travel to U.S. exceeding expectations

* in Terms of person-stays

Source: DK Shifflet & Associates/Travel Industry

Association of America

gas prices peak in early september 2005
Gas Prices Peak in Early September 2005

Jan ‘04

July ‘04

Jan ‘05

July ‘05

Oct ‘05

air traffic is back
Air Traffic is Back

Millions of Passengers Enplanements

-

Source: Air Transport Association

u s hotel performance 2001 2005p
U.S. Hotel Performance, 2001-2005p

% Change over Prior Year

Source: Smith Travel Research

rv trends
RV Trends
  • 7 million U.S. households own RVs
  • RV retail sales down slightly in 2005 but forecasted to be second best year for RV sales in 27 years
  • RV rentals by Americans up 22% in 2005 according to Cruise America

Source: RVIA

Source: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association

cruise trends
Cruise Trends
  • 5.5% increase in passengers on CLIA member cruise lines in 2005
  • North American passengers up 9.4%
  • 11 million passengers expected this year
  • Average length of cruise was 7.33 days versus 7.09 days last year
  • Growing number of cruise-ship theme voyages for a broad range of special interests

Source: RVIA

Source: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association

commercial casino gaming revenues up 7 percent in 2004
Commercial Casino Gaming Revenues up 7 Percent in 2004

Billions

Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors and

State Gaming Regulatory Agencies

tour operator trends 2005 2003
Tour Operator Trends, 2005/2003
  • FIT Offerings up 26%; 17% of overall sales volume – up 42% since 2003
  • 56% of tours sold in 2005 were customized, up from 49% in 2003
  • 46% of customer base are Seniors (60+)
  • 33% Boomers (39 – 59)
  • 6% young adults (21 – 28)
  • 15% students (under 21)
  • 23% book 45 days or less in advance, up from 8% in 2003

Source: National Tour Association

tour types with greatest growth among nta operators
Tour Types with Greatest Growth Among NTA Operators

Percent of NTA Operators Offering

Source: National Tour Association

tour types with greatest declines among nta operators
Tour Types with Greatest Declines Among NTA Operators

Percent of NTA Operators Offering

Source: National Tour Association

international visitation to the u s approaches 2000 levels in 2005
International Visitation To The U.S. Approaches 2000 Levels in 2005

Arrivals in Millions

Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI)

One or more nights

international visitor arrivals to the u s
International Visitor Arrivals to the U.S.

2005p %Change % Change

(In Millions)2005/20042005/2000

Canada 15.0 8% 2%

Mexico 12.7 6% 23%

Overseas 21.7 7% -17%

Europe 10.3 8% -10%

Asia 6.7 7% -17%

Latin America 2.4 6% -33%

Source: Global Insight Forecast; Office of Travel and Tourism Industries

why not even greater growth
Why Not Even Greater Growth?
  • The U.S. is on sale! Euro, Yen and Canadian dollar have all appreciated considerably.
  • One obvious problem – our deteriorating image around the world.
several studies
Several Studies
  • Validate magnitude of problem and how it is affecting the credibility and usage of U.S. brands
  • 20% of Europeans and Canadians say they are consciously avoiding U.S. brands
  • Those products seen as quintessentially American are avoided even more
  • 55% of Japanese, 36% of Germans and 32% of French say less likely to visit U.S.
  • 57% of Japanese, 42% of French and 38% of UK avoid flying U.S. air carriers

Source: GMI World Poll, The Pew Center for People & The Press

visitation and image
Visitation and Image

PositiveNegative

The United States

Visited the U.S. Before 54%46%

Have Not Visited the U.S. 38% 62%

The American People

Visited the U.S. Before 72%28%

Have Not Visited the U.S. 61% 39%

Quality of Life in America

Visited the U.S. Before 68%32%

Have Not Visited the U.S. 48% 52%

* Among online residents of six countries (Source: GMI)

slide21

Travel Expenditures Up Nearly 8 Percent in 2005

Billions

p = preliminary; f = forecast

International traveler spending on U.S. carriers made outside the U.S. not included

Source: TIA; OTTI

the shifting travel landscape
The Shifting Travel Landscape
  • Business Indicators Vacillating GDP, Dow, Unemployment, Consumer Confidence, National mood shift
  • International Issues – Currencies, USA Image Abroad, Biometric Passports – Visa Hassles, War, Disease, Terror, Hurricanes
  • Product/Marketing Issues: Online Distribution, Internet Connections, Teleconferencing, Flat Screens, Bed Systems…
consumer confidence at a two year low
Consumer Confidence At A Two-Year Low

Source: The Conference Board

tia s traveler sentiment index remains weak
TIA’s Traveler Sentiment Index Remains Weak

Seasonally Adjusted, 1st Quarter 2000 = 100

Source: TIA’s Traveler Sentiment Index

slide26

AFFORDABILITY INDEX

(U.S. Average, 2000 = 100 for Perceived Affordability of Travel )

U.S. Average, 2000=100

Source: TIA’s Traveler Sentiment Index

slide27

FINANCIAL INDEX

(U.S. Average, 2000 = 100 for Ability to Take Pleasure/Vacation Trip Based on Personal Finances

U.S. Average, 2000=100

Source: TIA’s Traveler Sentiment Index

energy woes
Energy Woes
  • Worst is over for gasoline – prices should fall back to around $2.50/gallon by year-end
  • But, home heating will cost Americans about one-third more this winter on average than last winter, assuming typical weather. A colder-than normal winter could lift energy costs nearly 50 percent.

Source: Global Insight, Energy Information Administration

consumer spending growth to slow significantly in 4 th quarter 2005
Consumer Spending Growth to Slow Significantly in 4th Quarter, 2005

Percent Change

Source: Global Insight

wanning ceo confidence
Wanning CEO Confidence
  • CEO confidence fell to its lowest level in four years in the third quarter and will likely remain subdued for rest of 2005
  • Noticeable less optimistic about short-term outlook – one-third expect economic conditions to worsen in next 6 months

Source: The Conference Board

economic trends
Economic Trends
  • GDP growth in fourth quarter will slow to 2.8% but economy will pick up steam in first quarter 2006 on post-hurricane bounce
  • Underlying trend, however, for slower economic growth in 2006 and 2007

Source: Global Insight

u s economic growth to slow
U.S. Economic Growth to Slow

20042005p2006f

Real GDP 4.2% 3.5% 3.3%

Payroll Employment 1.1 1.6 1.5

Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.1 4.9

Real Disposable

Income 3.4 1.6 3.8

Consumer Prices 2.7 3.5 2.7

Total Consumption 3.9 3.4 2.8

Source: Global Insight

2005 hurricane season impact study

2005 Hurricane Season Impact Study

Provided By:

Donna Larsen Lisa Araj, Ph.D.

DataPath Systems Cunningham Research

expected leisure travel changes in 2006
Expected Leisure Travel Changes in 2006

16. Now thinking about all your travel plans, compared to last year, please indicate the statement that best describes your future travel plans.

Base: All Travelers

impact of 2005 hurricane season gas prices on auto travel
Impact of 2005 Hurricane Season & Gas Prices On Auto Travel

Among those planning to decrease travel ..."is this primarily due to the price of gasoline?"

16. Now thinking about all your travel plans, compared to last year, please indicate the statement that best describes your future travel plans.

Base: All Travelers

impact of 2005 hurricane season gas prices on long haul auto travel
Impact of 2005 Hurricane Season & Gas Prices On Long Haul Auto Travel

Among those who had planned a trip…

Do you still plan on taking the long-haul driving vacation?

17. Prior to the 2005 hurricane season, were you planning on taking a “long-haul” driving vacation in the next 12 months?

Base: All Travelers

trip planning and contingency plans for travel to the south southeastern region
Trip Planning and Contingency Plans for Travel to the South/Southeastern Region

% Travelers who had planned or were in the process of planning a leisure trip to the South/Southeastern Region

Among those who had planned a trip…

% who have decided to…

9. For travel in the next 12 months, had you planned or were you in the process of planning a leisure trip to any of the following states prior to the onset of the 2005 hurricane season?

Base: All Travelers

ways to significantly increase interest in region
Ways to Significantly Increase Interest in Region

8. Which of the following might significantly increase your interest in visiting the region?

Base: Those previously interested in travel to any state in the Region

for more information please contact
For More Information Please Contact…

Donna Larsen

Partner

DataPath Systems

867-660-4600

Donna@DataPathSystems.net

Lisa Araj, Ph.D.

Vice President

Cunningham Research

866-876-5472

Lisa@CunninghamResearch.com

u s leisure travel outlook
U.S. Leisure Travel Outlook
  • Leisure travel intentions have weakened
  • Expect slower growth in remaining months of 2005 and first quarter of 2006
  • Up 4% in 2005; 2% in 2006
  • Growth in travel spending will also slow

Source: Travel Industry Association of America

estimated attendance at the all u s theme parks 1999 2009
Estimated Attendance at theAll U.S. Theme Parks1999-2009

1999-2004 CAGR = +0.9%

2005-2009 CAGR = +1.8%

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers

nationwide interest in theme park travel
Nationwide Interest in Theme Park Travel

-5 points from 2004

Source: YPB&R/ Yankelovich National Leisure Monitor

nationwide interest in theme park travel1
Nationwide Interest in Theme Park Travel

SOURCE: YPB&R/ Yankelovich National Leisure Monitor

u s business travel outlook
U.S. Business Travel Outlook
  • Domestic business travel also likely to be constrained in short-term
  • Weak CEO confidence, much slower growth in corporate profits and rising travel costs
  • Up 1% in 2005; 1 – 2% in 2006

Source: Travel Industry Association of America

outlook for air travel
Outlook for Air Travel
  • Not out of the woods yet
  • Mainland carriers:

-2% in domestic passengers

+6.5% in international passengers

-1.5% in domestic available seat miles

+8% in international available seat miles

  • Load factors will remain at record levels
  • Fares will rise

Source: Air Transport Association

u s hotel performance 2003 2006
U.S. Hotel Performance, 2003-2006

% Change over Prior Year

Source: Smith Travel Research

international visits expected to surpass 2000 level next year
International Visits Expected to Surpass 2000 Level Next Year

Arrivals in Millions

Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI)

slide48

Travel Expenditures Will Continue to Rise

Billions

p = preliminary; f = forecast

Source: TIA; OTTI

travel is top online category
Travel is Top Online Category
  • Online sales now exceed $100 billion; expected to reach $316 billion by 2010 (Forrester Research)
  • Travel = $45 – 65 billion (JupiterResearch, eMarketer, PhocusWright)
  • 27% of U.S. leisure/unmanaged business travel booked online in 2004; 35% by 2006 (PhocusWright)
  • Internet is information source used by majority of Americans planning vacations (51%) and majority of business travelers (54%) (YPBR)
online travel planning and booking continue to rise
Online Travel Planning and Booking Continue to Rise

Millions

Source: Travel Industry Association of America

online trip planning activities 2005
Online Trip Planning Activities, 2005

Millions of U.S. Online Travelers

Source: Travel Industry Association of America

travel products services purchased online 2005
Travel Products/Services Purchased Online, 2005

Millions of U.S. Online Travelers

Source: Travel Industry Association of America

slide54

Technology Trends

  • Mobile Technologies
  • On-Demand Devices
  • TIVO
  • Podcasts
  • Weblogs
  • Mobile Search
marketing revolution
Marketing Revolution
  • Ad spending in U.S. up 7.6% in 2004, online ad spending up 28.8% (eMarketer)
  • E-commerce still only 3 – 4% of all multi-channel retail sales
  • 84% of online adults use search engines (Pew Internet & American Life Project)
  • Search the most popular online ad format (40%), followed by banners and classified (IAB and PwC)
slide56

“Imagination is more important than knowledge …Because everything we know, first had to be imagined.” (Albert Einstein)