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Textbook: Meteorology Understanding the Atmosphere 2 nd Edition Ackerman & Knox Prof. Steve Ackerman University of Wisconsin 2009 Teaching Excellence Award American Meteorological Society your topics of interest in ATSC 2000 topics I propose we cover in this course

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Textbook:

Meteorology

Understanding the Atmosphere

2nd Edition

Ackerman & Knox

Prof. Steve Ackerman

University of Wisconsin

2009 Teaching Excellence Award

American Meteorological Society

topics i propose we cover in this course
topics I propose we cover in this course

and of course Chapter 1) Introduction

chapter 1 introduction
chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Weather vs climate

1.2 Atmospheric composition

  • Focus on greenhouse gases

1.3 Atmospheric structure

  • Focus on the ozone hole
history of meteorology
History of meteorology
  • Babylonians, Chinese: astrometeorology
  • Aristotle: “meteorologia”
  • 16th-17th century: instruments and scientific method (Descartes)
    • barometer (Torricelli, 1643, mercury)
    • thermometer (Galileo, 1592, Fahrenheit, 1714)
  • 1843: real-time data via telegraph
  • 1920’s: polar front theory (Bergen school)
  • 1940’s: upper-air observations (radiosondes)
  • 1950’s: radar
  • 1960’s: first satellites and NWP models
slide7

Hurricane Katrina

8/28/05 17 UTC

slide10

precipitation

topography

slide11

January mean temperature

North America

Europe

London

Boston

Scotland in March

Off Labrador in March

slide13
Weather:
    • A depiction of the state of the atmosphere at one point in time.
  • Climate:
    • A depiction of the ‘typical’ weather, based on observations taken over a period of time.
which one is a statement about weather which one about climate
Yesterday’s high in Laramie was 69°F

That’s 4 degrees below the average high for this time of the year.

Which one is a statement about weather, which one about climate?

Click here for the current Laramie weather forecast

weather or climate
weather or climate ?

from 3-monthly to daily precip

what is an anomaly
What is an ‘anomaly’?
  • A departure from ‘normal’.
    • Especially climate data are often shown as anomalies, e.g. a drought.
slide19

The atmosphere, like any other fluid, behaves chaotically

Edward Lorenz, 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. Vol.20 : 130—141.

Edward Lorenz in Wikipedia

climate is not constant
“climate” is not constant!

last 150,000 years

last 1,000 years

regional variations in long term change usa
regional variations in long-term change: USA

US temperature trend 1941-2005

can we predict climate fluctuations
Can we predict climate fluctuations?
  • We know that weather becomes unpredictable after ~10 days
  • So how can the CPC produce a seasonal outlook for the drought?
  • Climate anomalies tend to persist for some time, months to seasons.
  • Why ?
1998 el ni o sst jet stream
1998 El Niño: SST & jet stream

anomalous

sea surface temperature

jet stream

slide30

Coupled atmosphere-ocean models predict the SST out to about a year.

An El Niño is predicted for next winter …

source

slide32

Conclusion: there is some limited guidance for the season ahead, but wrong predictions should not be a surprise.

  • That does not mean that long-term climate change is even less certain.
  • We cannot predict that July 2035 will be an ‘unusually’ warm month compared to what is typical then, but we are confident that that the 2030s will be warmer than the current decade.
  • This is based on climate model predictions that take into account changes in greenhouse gases, earth surface conditions, and clouds.
slide33
Predicted global mean temperature change between 2000 and 2100 for 5 different CO2 emission scenarios.

source

slide34

Both study the atmosphere

Key atmospheric observations

pop quiz
Pop quiz
  • The Earth’s atmosphere consists mostly of:
    • a: carbon dioxide;
    • b: oxygen;
    • c: water vapor;
    • d: nitrogen.
slide43

Discussion: our atmosphere is key to the habitability of the Earth. Are we alone in that regard, or do other planets have an atmosphere as well ?

pop quiz45
Pop quiz
  • Compared to the Earth, both Mars and Venus:
    • a: are warmer;
    • b: have a higher surface pressure;
    • c: are closer to the Sun;
    • d: have relatively more CO2 in their atmosphere.
slide48

radiosonde balloon

satellites

real-time soundings plotted

pop quiz50
Pop quiz
  • The lowest two layers of the atmosphere are:
    • a: thermosphere, stratosphere;
    • b: troposphere, ionosphere;
    • c: mesosphere, stratosphere;
    • d: troposphere, stratosphere.
slide55

Aurora Australis, May ’91

Space Shuttle Discovery

good vs bad ozone
“Good”: Stratospheric ozone, which screens out much of the incident UV radiation from the sun.

“Bad”: Tropospheric ozone, an anthropo-genic air pollutant , damages health and the environment.

“Good” vs. “Bad” Ozone
chapman cycle textbook p 446 449
Chapman cycletextbook, p. 446-449

Formation:

  • O2 +hn 2O (l<0.25 mm - UV-c)
  • O + O2 + M  O3 + M
  • O3 +hn O + O2 (l<0.31 mm - UV-b)
  • O + O3 2 O2

Destruction:

cfc gases destroy the good ozone
CFC gases destroy the “good” ozone

Montreal protocol (1987): complete phase-out of CFC production

slide60

UV radiation penetrating to the Earth surface

Laramie (2.2 km)

UV-c

UV-b

UV-a

(skin cancer, eye cataracts ...)

surface observations63
Surface observations

temperature (°F)

sea level pressure (mb)

weather

5

wind direction and speed

visibility (miles)

dewpoint (°F)

cloudiness

learning applet

sea level pressure
Sea level pressure

If reported value greater than 500:

Initial 9 is missing. Place it on left, then divide by 10.

For example: 827 becomes 982.7 mb.

If reported value less than 500:

Initial 10 is missing. Place it on left, then divide by 10.

For example: 027 becomes 1002.7 mb.

slide67

speed

wind

1 Knot = 1.15 MPH

direction

summary
summary
  • Chapter 1, intro to the atmosphere
    • weather vs climate
    • vertical structure of the atmosphere
    • atmospheric gas composition
  • Chapter 15, human influence on climate
    • climate change (p. 441-443 and p. 453-464)

- to be revisited