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  1. Human Interface Technology Laboratory... moving minds to new worlds Virtual Worlds Consortium Workshop #13 May 6-7 1997

  2. New Consortium Workshop Format • more emphasis on content • short review of HITL status • AFOSR research • exposure to UW family • Dean Denton keynote • CS&E image rendering projects • focus on issues • impact of trends

  3. Destiny Waves Trends Forces

  4. A three question exercise • What are forces driving the future of information and media? • What are the trends? • What are the next waves to ride?

  5. Our view • HITL staff & student observations • other sources (e.g. U.S. News & World Report article, Omron) • TAF opinion

  6. Forces • people • economic • political • technology • business

  7. People Forces • Nature of the population • growth • aging • Attention time constants • Boredom = push for the ultimate experience

  8. Impact of the World Wide Web • accessibility (common language) • web seems to be accepted by the masses • networks are now acceptable • viewers are generating content • non-textual • streamed video/audio/graphics • many-to-many versus one-to-many

  9. Economic factors - 1 • last year sales of PC did not increase (for first time) -- in spite of 124% jump in advertising over past 2 years • 1994 -- 42% over previous year • 1995 -- 18% • 1996 -- 8% ($60 B/ 40% to households) • just 37% of US household own PC • comparisons • TV achieved 90% saturation in 5 years • computers 40% saturation in 10 years

  10. why the difference? • cost of entry? • complexity of entry? • TV = no maintenance cost • Barriers to household • “...industry yet to figure out what first time consumers really want from a personal computer.” USNWR May 5, 1997

  11. barriers • pain of ownership issues vs perceived benefits • #1 hairy image (complexity) --”son of Univac personna” • #2 muddled messages from marketing • #3 in PCs we don’t trust (little brand loyalty-OS?) • 30% from same company for PCs • 85% from same company for automobiles • PCs lose newness sooner (upgrade concerns) • bells and whistles people don’t want

  12. barriers - cont. • #4 abysmal customer service • on avg. 25 hours to identify right person • nine days to resolve problem • 8 percent go unresolved

  13. Economic factors - 2 • who is making the money (not clear how to make money) • companies who provide the infrastructure • Netscape? • telcos • gateway providers • companies that provide the content • companies that use it as a medium for business • Amazon.com?

  14. Economic factors - 3 • ‘push’ instead of ‘pull’ approach • can do it so we do...but what is the value added • just a fad • whom does it empower • lot of motivation to try new ideas • be inventive • try different strategies • make a million $$$

  15. Political dimensions • people now assume their right to have access to the web • 2 years ago nerdy • now it’s like a right • children deprived if don’t have computers in classroom • impact on national and local policy • school district policy • regulatory & censorship issues

  16. Info Overload • lots of info but not knowledge • a new bred ignorance -- misinformation • people don’t realize that the WWW doesn’t teach anything • people seem to satisfied with less (e.g. Grolier’s vs Britannica) • accessibility is what turns the balance • need use of filters not funnels

  17. Technology forces • Digital TV trend • blurring of distinction between television & computers (e.g. MSNEWS) • desktop broadcasting • explosion in graphics/computing technology • growing influence of entertainment on technology development • used to be medicine and defense/aerospace • WebTV • stimulate demand for higher end

  18. Computer games • computer game production now getting expensive • risks high • not just two people in garage • now competing for shelf space (like movies) • half life of content

  19. 3D content • filtered down into home/games • not sprite-based anymore • but still little 3D interaction/interface • tools to build 3D content lacking • interface to experience 3D lacking • HITL should develop 3D rules of thumb

  20. Electronic Collaboration • great demand for remote collaborative work • people work on projects from anywhere • new tools needed (e.g. collaborative white board) • collaborative filtering • virtual community to filter • e.g. peer review of content--a new filter

  21. Time constants • everything is beta • time from generation to dissemination greatly reduced (little thoughtful input) • short product cycles • demand for bandwidth

  22. Heterogenuous computing • access to info from a variety of devices • PDAs • servers • distributed computing • content must consider what end delivery will be • pagers, browsers, phones, TVs

  23. Opening & closing of a frontier • collapsing from own weight • enormous pull for more bandwidth • but web flooded with junk • interplay of telcos and cable companies • not reaching convergence • how establish confidence • credibilty of info • authenication of info • future role of magazines (mainly for peer review)

  24. Market driven culture • not evolutionary in character • lowest common denominator (e.g. WIN95 to date) • does not mean survival of the ‘fittest’ • survival of the ‘loudest’ rather that the ‘fittest’ • experiment = Gameworks half life

  25. Microsoft--for better or worse • Microsoft is a force for change and not change • 147 in fortune 500 but influence even greater • if Microsoft set standard then adhered to • controlling of language (difference of poems) • playing field is not level • alternative just go with a winner • everyone way behind on interfaces • everyone trying to capture standard

  26. State of the VR industry • deaths & resurrections • need for content • dramatic increase in graphics computing technology • VR interfaces not progressing as well--still problem of what is it suppose to do • potential showstoppers (cybersickness) • e.g. Glasstron experience

  27. OMRON CO. 1997.2.10 Toward Mass Customization and Human-friendly World Prediction: Social needs will move 1)From Mass Production to Mass Customization 2)From Pursuit of Productivity to Realization of Human-friendliness Human-friendliness (making joy of life) Optimization Society Sphere of New Core Business OMRON's New Business Mass Customization Mass Production Automation Business Information Society Automated Society Industrial Society Productivity

  28. Burial Grounds • Victor Maxx • Worldesign • Virtual i-o • Virtuality • Forte

  29. Resurrections • Virtual Vision • Disney • Sony

  30. Lessons Learned - 1 • a startup company trying to sell peripherals in the consumer electronics marketplace has a low probability of success • content may be more important than the medium • vertical markets seem to work better

  31. Lessons Learned - 2 • potential showstoppers (e.g. cybersickness) • successful co-development partnerships with consortium members • human factors stuff • no-one wants to do it • but may be the key to success

  32. If I had to bet my money • hold out for 3D interfaces • build alternative for monitor = panoramic 3D real image display • use virtual interfaces for mobile computing • dev tools for 3D media generation • develop intuitive 3D input devices • content learning how to use the medium • dev tools for electronically-mediated collaboration • evolve human interface science

  33. A question of destiny • Q: In business, what is the job of the leader? • A: Leadership is discovering the company’s destiny and having the courage to follow it. • Q: Do you believe that companies have destinies? • A: Yes, I do. But it’s not the same as a company’s vision. A company’s destiny is a matter of purpose, an expression of why it exists. I think we’re beginning to understand that companies that endure have noble purpose. (From an interview with Joe Jaworski, Fast Company, June/July 1996)

  34. Bottom line = solve real problems • rather than surfing waves that issue from forces and trends • HITL should make own waves...using the trends and forces as accelerators (much like Jupiter) • goal is to solve problems and make a profit at the same time!!!

  35. Problems we have to solve • growth of population • hunger • expenditure of fossil fuels • crime • aging of population • medicine & quality of life • management of pain • people with disabilities (e.g. low vision)

  36. Mission To empower people by building better interfaces with advanced machines that will unlock the power of human intelligence and link minds globally into the 21st century.

  37. Themes unlocking intelligence + linking minds

  38. Doors to Unlock • accelerate learning • enhance creation • extend communications • assimilate information rapidly • recapture “lost” world citizens

  39. Keys to Doors • exploit the 3rd dimension • make computers human like • adaptive/multimodal interfaces • intelligent agents • virtual worlds

  40. HITL Objectives #1 Bring together the best minds #2 Research how humans work #3 Develop enabling technologies (that tap & match human capabilities) #4 Work on driving problems #5 Educate future workforce #6 Transition technology to industry #7 Win-win formula for all stakeholders

  41. Application Domains • education & training • design • manufacturing • health care • automotive & aerospace • entertainment

  42. HIT Lab Status

  43. New Consortium Members • Sense8 • BHP (Australia) • Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory • Museum of Flight

  44. Consortium Members • Alias, American Express, Battelle - PNNL, BHP, Boeing, Digital, Division, Fluke, Ford, Franz, Fujitsu, Hewlett-Packard, Hughes, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Insight, Inst. for Information Industry, Kopin, Microsoft, Microvision, Museum of Flight, NBBJ, Philips, Rockwell, Samsung, Sense8, Sharp, Starke Diekstra, Stratos, Sun Microsystems, Tektronix, Telecom Italia, Teleres, Texas Instruments, USAF, US Navy, US WEST, Virtual Reality Inc., Virtual Vision

  45. Farewell • Rich Johnston • Heather Patrick • Steve White • David Melville • Mike Tidwell

  46. Hail - Faculty & Staff • Faculty • Dr. John Kelly (Children’s Hospital) • Dr. Randy Babbitt (UW Electrical Engrg. Dept) • Dr. Chris Shaw (Univ. of Regina, Comp. Sci) • Staff • Dr. Mike Weissman (video, 3D displays) • Mike Tidwell (optics engineer) • Chris Airola (lab assistant)

  47. Hail -- Visiting Scholars • Stig Hollup (MS Cognitive Sci, Norwegian Univ. of Science & Technology) • Rita Salon • Dr. Sarah Sloane (English, Univ. of Puget Sound)

  48. Hail -- Students • Michele Malarney (PhD Student-Education) • Bruce Havelock (PhD Student-Education) • Loudon Williams (PhD Student-Education) • Linda Gobessi (MS Student-Tech. Comm) • Debra Revere (MA student, Lib & Info Sci) • Rachel Ennis (Soph. - Prelaw ) • Kristi Hatch (Soph. - Sociology)

  49. Hail -- Laboratory Associates • Jeremy Cottle (Junior, Industrial Design) • Mark Phillips (Senior, History) • Lydia Matheson (Grad, Art) • Doug Pyle (MS Student, Tech. Comm) • Eric Lin (PhD Student, IE)