Every Child A Graduate

1. Every Child A Graduate Bob Wise, President Alliance for Excellent Education June 3, 2008 Arizona Business & Education Coalition 2008 Annual Conference

2. The Challenge for the Nation Three out of every ten students do not graduate from high school. About half of those who graduate are not college- and work-ready. Source: EPE 2007; Greene 2002

3. Roughly 2,000 Dropout Factories Account for… 48% 12% 69% 63% 12% Much of the dropout crisis is located in relatively few schools. All Dropouts Black Dropouts Hispanic Dropouts All High Schools 48% 69% 63% Notes: Universe includes regular and vocational schools with grades of 10, 11, and 12 ; low grade of 7; and enrollment of at least 100 students. Dropout percentages by subgroup were derived from schools with a promoting power of 60 or less over a 3-year average. Source: Balfanz 2007

4. The Scope of the Dropout Factory Crisis in Arizona AZ has 35dropout factories that account for: Data not available Notes: Universe includes regular and vocational schools with grades of 10, 11, and 12 ; low grade of 7; and enrollment of at least 100 students. Dropout percentages were derived from schools with a promoting power of 60 or less over a 3-year average. Source: Balfanz 2007

5. WhoPays When Students Fail to Graduate? The Students Themselves… Higher crime costs Lost wages Reduced voter participation Increased health care costs Limited job opportunities Barriers to supporting a family Reduced salary The Rest of Us… Compromised health

6. $7.1 billion $1.4 billion $265 million $104 million The Economic Impact on Arizona Source: Alliance for Excellent Education 2006, 2007

7. The Economic Benefits of Increased Graduation Rates Level of Education Reached AZ would gain $8.6 billion in earnings & productivity Level of Schooling Reached (White Students) Level of Schooling Reached (Students of Color) Source: Alliance for Excellent Education 2006

8. Public Benefit of Halving the # of Dropouts Source: Levin, H., Kilpatrick, W., Belfield, C., Muennig, P., & Rouse, C., 2006. America’s Bank The American Taxpayer 45,000,000,000 Forty-five billion RE: annual public contribution from graduating every child

9. American education in a global context

10. The Economy Has Changed…Have Our Schools? Nonroutine analytic Nonroutine manual Skills Demanded by the U.S. Economy 65 Nonroutine Interactive 60 55 Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution 50 Routine manual 45 Routine cognitive 40 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 Sources: Levy and Murnane; Schleicher, 2007

11. What Americans Value U.S. Rankings on Olympics U.S. Rankings on PISA Reading Science Problem Solving Math U.S. Ranks 15th U.S. Ranks 21st U.S. Ranks 24th U.S. Ranks 25th Sources: PISA 2004, 2007

12. High science performance Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply … 18 countries perform below this line Low science performance

13. Percent of Population with HS Degree or Equivalent As Others Rise to the Challenge, U.S. Advantage Drops 13 1 1990s % 1980s 1970s 1960s 1 27 Notes: 1) Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes; 2) Year of reference 2004; 3) Including some ISCED 3C short programmes; 4) Year of reference 2003. Source:Schleicher2007

14. Even in Higher Education, the World is Catching up… College Graduation Rates % 15 2005 1995 2 Note: Net graduation rate is calculated by summing the graduation rates by single year of age in 2005. Year of reference 2004. Source: OECD 2007

15. Competition from Emerging Nations cont’d Future Supply of College Graduates 2015 2010 2003 Source: Schleicher 2007

16. A National Problem Requires National Attention We must look to best practice and research, and replicate and support what we know works.

17. Supporting Local Efforts • Pockets of • innovation Capacity to graduate every child • Look to best practice and research • Replicate and support what works • Implement smart, supportive state and federal policies • Commit resources

18. NCLB’s Approach is Somewhat Backwards 50+ sets of standards State Assessments Graduation rates Identifying schools + One-size-fits-all school consequences Federal

19. NCLB 2.0 – A New Approach Common Standards + Graduation Rate Calculations National State Set of diagnostic indicators District Differentiate schools’ needs School Individualize school improvement strategies

20. Money Matters – But Other Things Do Too…

21. Against the Backdrop of Federal Funding $20 Title I $18 Reading First $16 Head Start Perkins $14 GEAR-UP $12 Striving Readers Amount (in billions) $10 TRIO $8 SEOG $6 LEAP $4 Fed. Work Study $2 Pell PreK-6 Grades 7-9 Grades 10-12 Postsecondary The Missing Middle FY2007 Education Appropriations Sm Learn Comm Source: US Department of Education Budget FY2007; US Department of HHS Budget FY2007

22. Paradigm Shifts The old bureaucratic education system The modern enabling education system Universal high standards Hit & miss Uniformity Embracing diversity Provision Outcomes Bureaucratic – look up Devolved – look outwards Talk equity Deliver equity Received wisdom Data and best practice Prescription Informed profession Demarcation Collaboration

23. Existing Secondary School Proposals Flawed accountability for student outcomes (especially graduation rates) Title I funding (trigger for accountability & support) doesn’t reach most secondary schools Mandated sanctions not effective for secondary school improvement Lack of capacity for turning around low-performing secondary schools Adolescent literacy deficits unaddressed Doesn’t spur innovation, invest in research & development • Every Student Counts Act • Graduation Promise Act • Striving Readers Act •  GRADUATESAct For more details, see Alliance’s website: http://www.all4ed.org/federal_policy/NCLB_ReAuth

25. Governor Bob Wise Alliance for Excellent Education www.all4ed.org Raising the Grade: How High School Reform Can Save Our Youth and Our Nation available at www.amazon.com, www.barnesandnoble.com, www.bordersstores.com, www.booksense.com, www.booksamillion.com, www.wiley.com

26. Top and bottom performers in science These students can consistently identify, explain and apply scientific knowledge, link different information sources and explanations and use evidence from these to justify decisions, demonstrate advanced scientific thinking in unfamiliar situations… These students often confuse key features of a scientific investigation, apply incorrect information, mix personal beliefs with facts in support of a position… Large prop. of poor perf. Large proportion of top performers 20